Drawing odds

[50 Cent]

ok, say you have 4 3 in the bb and get a free look at the flop. there's 6 guys in the pot for one small bet each. the flop comes down 6 7 K, giving me nothing but a gutshot. i figure that my hand will be good if i hit my 5 on the turn. odds against hitting the 5 are around 5.25:1, i have sufficient pot odds, so i call 1 bet on the flop.

my question is: if i don't hit the 5 on the turn, do i have to recalculate my odds change on the turn or do i still base it on 5.25:1 to see if i can proceed to the river?

thanks!

[Cyrus]

"say you have 4 3 in the bb and get a free look at the flop. there's 6 guys in the pot for one small bet each. the flop comes down 6 7 K, giving me nothing but a gutshot. i figure that my hand will be good if i hit my 5 on the turn. odds against hitting the 5 are around 5.25:1, i have sufficient pot odds, so i call 1 bet on the flop."

If, when you hit your gutshot, you're certain to win the round, I mean absolutely certain (the nuts or whatever), then, first of all, you have to calculate in addition to the odds you're getting in order to bet on the flop, the implied odds of winning additional bets (one or more) from your opponents when you hit the Turn and bet/raise there and on the River.

It's not as if all the betting will stop after you all bet the flop!

And if you are going to Fold (for whatever reason) in case you don't Hit the Turn, then the above calculation is sufficient. (Big Money Drain warning: This is always the thinking behind inflating one's odds and going to the River! "Just 1 more card and I'm throwing that junk away. If I hit I'm skinning 'em".) Because if you don't hit the Tun but, for whatever reason, you're gonna call this round to the end, you have to calculate all the bets that are gonna go in the pot, as odds against all the money you are gonna put in, from now till the end. Possible raises included.

"my question is: if i don't hit the 5 on the turn, do i have to recalculate my odds change on the turn or do i still base it on 5.25:1 to see if i can proceed to the river?"

Now, after the Turn card is dealt and you don't hit, the question about whether to call again, in order to see the River, is a completely new consideration. All the money you have put in the pot in the previous rounds, including the Turn, are no longer yours and are contested by everyone including you. So, if the money in the pot is $X and you are asked to bet $Y to see the River, you are given X:Y odds. But again , the same assumptions apply : If you're gonna fold when you don't hit the River, fine. If you're a sure winner when you hit the River, then, once more, implied odds. (Warning, etc.)

Wherever a certainty is not total, you can assign probabilities. (Warning, etc.)

[Rushmore]

It's tough to calculate odds and adhere to them when they are based on faulty premises. Your most faulty premise is that your hand is good when you spike a 5.

You mean if you spike a 5 on the turn, and an 8 or a 9 or a 4 or a 6 comes on the river? Or when an 8 or a 9 or a 4 or a 6 comes on the turn, you call, and then you spike a 5?

Because in some of these cases, you'll likely lose, while in others, you'll likely lose half the pot.

Calculating pot odds TO THE RIVER on a gutshot draw is no way to go through life.

You'll find that your gutshot is roughly 11-1 to come on the turn. Your only question should be:

"If I spike my 5 on the turn, will I make enough to justify this call?" The answer to this question has to be both accurate and honest. It is disingenuous to "forget" to factor in the times you lose or split the pot, or the possibility of checking, calling, and then being raised on the flop. These are all real possibilities, and must be observed.

It's in most players' natures to look for a reason to call, as opposed to a reason to fold. Don't make this mistake and then justify it by some elaborate rationalization of probability based on faulty reasoning.

I made that mistake for a long time. I plan to stop someday soon.

[BruceZ]

i figure that my hand will be good if i hit my 5 on the turn. odds against hitting the 5 are around 5.25:1, i have sufficient pot odds, so i call 1 bet on the flop.

Your odds of hitting the 5 on the turn are 4/47 = 10.75:1, not 5.25:1. You can call with less than 11 bets in the pot if you think you will win additional bets when you hit, and you don't think there is a big chance of being outdrawn. 8-1 pot odds is a rule of thumb if you are drawing to the nuts, but it really depends on your opponents and what you think they hold. Notice that you are not drawing to the nuts, and an 8,9, or T could give someone a bigger straight. Your odds of making the straight by the river are 5.1-1, but you will have to call at least 3 small bets to see the river, so you would have to win at least 16 bets when you hit to make it correct to go to the river. Gutshots normally must be folded on the turn when they don't hit if you don't have anything else, unless your bluffing or semi-bluffing.

[Mike Haven]

if i hit my 5 on the turn. odds against hitting the 5 are around 5.25:1, i have sufficient pot odds, so i call 1 bet on the flop.
my question is: if i don't hit the 5 on the turn, do i have to recalculate my odds change on the turn or do i still base it on 5.25:1 to see if i can proceed to the river?

i think you meant the odds of hitting the 5 on the turn are 10.75 small bets to 1 small bet

then, yes, if you don't hit the 5 on the turn you have to recalculate the odds for hitting the 5 on the river - now you need to be getting pot odds of 10.5 big bets to 1 big bet to call

although you might hit and lose sometimes, you might hit and win a few extra bets sometimes - it will balance out somewhat in the long run