River raise/fold with overpair [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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wheelz

09-02-2005, 12:46 AM

Too much or just right? Villain is 19.6/15.2/1.8

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.33 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.33 BB

rudedog78

09-02-2005, 01:29 AM

Gotta call that reraise, it's too likely that he has T8 TJ or J8... I could see a 3 bet turn also and bet after he checks or calls after he bets out the river.

BradL

09-02-2005, 03:26 AM

The river is the best card you could hope for aside from a king. The raise is good and as uncomfortable as the reraise may make you folding the river here is terrible, you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

-Brad

flawless_victory

09-02-2005, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]cmon he threebet the river. assuming he can read the board, heros hand is not good. the vast majority of the time LOL.

donny5k

09-02-2005, 04:08 AM

Is it entirely inconceivable that villain has a worse hand 10% of the time?

The Truth

09-02-2005, 08:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The river is the best card you could hope for aside from a king. The raise is good and as uncomfortable as the reraise may make you folding the river here is terrible, you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

-Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

so you would cap it off?

09-02-2005, 08:45 AM

Is the villain semi-bluff raising twice in a row?
Does the villain think that you are trying to push him off his hand by three-betting the flop and betting the river?
Is your hand really worth two bets on the river? More importantly, is it worth three? On the other hand, is it worth one bet, or close to one bet?

I think your hand is worth maybe three quarters of a bet on the river. You will sometimes be shown AJ, but if the villain has any brain cells he hears you telling him that you can beat top pair. If the river goes two bets, I don't think you are going to be shown one pair very often. If it goes to three, you are in trouble. Given all this, what are you hoping to accomplish by raising? Are you hoping to push your opponent off of two pair? To convince him that you have Q9, or a full house or something? Unless your opponent can make some very tough folds on the river for one last bet, I think you are not going to get the fold you are looking for. In other words, just call the first bet on the river. You have a very, very thin value call. Any extra bets you put in cannot be helping you.

wkm

UMTerp

09-02-2005, 10:43 AM

A fold is horrible here. Calling the river for one bet is far superior to raise/fold. You'll be shown a conterfeited two pair often enough for a crying call to be profitable. Chances are you're beat, but not 90% of the time.

rigoletto

09-02-2005, 11:42 AM

Don't raise the river if you can't call a 3-bet.

wheelz

09-02-2005, 12:36 PM

I'm raising the river because I just counterfeited two pair, which is what I was pretty sure he had.

In the actual hand I did call the 3-bet, but I didn't know if I really should... most people seem to think yes. He had Q9.

flawless_victory

09-02-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He had Q9.

[/ QUOTE ]no sh1t.

wheelz

09-02-2005, 01:27 PM

Yeah I'm still not sold on this one either. I don't really think this guy is going 3-bet a worse hand on the river 7% of the time after all that action. Maybe I should just call the river?

nykenny

09-02-2005, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Too much or just right? Villain is 19.6/15.2/1.8

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.66 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.33 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.33 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

river:

raise and call the reraise, or just call. No need to get too fancy in such a big pot.

- Kenny

nykenny

09-02-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise the river if you can't call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually think he CAN call a three-bet. the villain (when did this word start to be used so widely?) could potentially put Hero on AJ, which is somewhat inline with his play thus far (in some people's eyes anyway).

- Kenny

rigoletto

09-02-2005, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise the river if you can't call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually think he CAN call a three-bet. the villain (when did this word start to be used so widely?) could potentially put Hero on AJ, which is somewhat inline with his play thus far (in some people's eyes anyway).

- Kenny

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say you shouldn't call a 3-bet. I merely pointed out that a raise is a mistake if you can't call the reraise (as the original post indicated).

As for your comment: I don't think anybody with the leak of calling to many raises on the river should seek advice on this board. A turn checkraise in this situation usually means two pair or better! and you will see a 3-bet or a fold more often than you will se a call on your riverraise.

wheelz

09-02-2005, 03:47 PM

Does a flop checkraise usually mean gutshot straight draw though? He could also play a set like this, but don't you think his line looks a lot like 2 pair? JT especially... I don't think he's ever folding for one more bet either. Having said that, I'm still not sold on raising.

rigoletto

09-02-2005, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does a flop checkraise usually mean gutshot straight draw though? He could also play a set like this, but don't you think his line looks a lot like 2 pair? JT especially... I don't think he's ever folding for one more bet either. Having said that, I'm still not sold on raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't look like a gutshot, but 97 got there on the turn and any 2 pair containing a 5 filled up on the river. JT and J8 are possible, but I still think you are looking at a flopped set, a rivered boat or a straight more than 50% of the time.

wheelz

09-02-2005, 05:01 PM

Wow I didn't even notice 79... I'm with you on calling on the river.

DpR

09-02-2005, 05:15 PM

I agree with those saying call the river. I like the river raise unless the opponent is a known very good player, in which case, just call.

Not showing this down (which you pretended you did), is horrific.

BradL

09-02-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the vast majority of the time LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not the vast majority of the time but more than enough to make this call profitable and its not close.

-Brad

BradL

09-02-2005, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

so you would cap it off?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not saying that, my word choice was poor: "the vast majority" was an overstatement, but folding this river remains bad, you will be good enough of the time to call here.

-Brad

imashyboi

09-04-2005, 11:32 AM

Pre-Flop - Standard

Flop - Standard but you have to size up what he has starting this point. I doubt he has two pair here, he's most likely to have a set or J. I don't think anyone would actually call J8, J5, or 85 in the BB. He could also be slow playing his AA.

Turn - I'm betting in this spot 100% of the time to see exactly what he has. If I am raised I'm pretty sure that my KK isn't good and would probably call 1 more to see if I hit my K. I might even raise here as a semi-bluff cause I have position, if he can make it 3bets to me I'm sure he realizes that his hand is good.

River - That 5h will either cost or win me money. I'm still not convinced that he has a two pair so instead of raising I'm going for a crying call.

I think this play will make you lose the least if you are behind. It's surely not an aggressive play but the way the opponent played his hand it seems like we're beat.

1800GAMBLER

09-05-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will have drawn out on two pair quite often, he will show JT or J8 the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]cmon he threebet the river. assuming he can read the board, heros hand is not good. the vast majority of the time LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man i love your posts.

To the OP: This hand was perfectly played. Villian only needs to know that Aces up beats his two pair for you to be able to fold the river, if he knows to play > 20% hands then he does. People have a hard time folding because people have a hard time understanding your equity can change from >50% to 0% by going one more bet. Setting it out logically. His hand range: two pair, fullhouse, straight. What will he do with each of them if you raise, well first of, if you raise will he know your hand? Yes, your hand is extremely easy to read here, so will he 3 bet a straight? Yes, he wont worry about a full house. Will he cap fullhouse? obviously. Will he call with two pair? Most prob call very rarely fold, never 3 bet, he either needs to put you on AK, what? or not understand hand rankings.

wheelz

09-05-2005, 12:33 AM

see, those were my thoughts exactly. then everyone told me that doing this was horrible. so i believed them. now you come in... and since you 10 table the 15 i tend to believe your opinion.

he had taggish stats so i assume he can in fact read hands. how could he 3-bet jt or j8 on the river?

1800GAMBLER

09-05-2005, 12:34 AM

Just follow flawless_victory next time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

wheelz

09-05-2005, 12:40 AM

he's harsh and sarcastic, but the man does know how to play.

steveyz

09-05-2005, 01:42 AM

I like the river raise. But I call a 3-bet. Unlike the river bet, his hand looks exactly like JT. I think JJ/TT and to a lesser extent 88 are likely to 3-bet preflop. 55 is possible but again not too likely. His stats indicate tight-aggressive, so it's hard to put him on 9-7. Plus would this guy check-raise the flop with a gut-shot?

And what hands containing a 5 would this guy call a EMP raise heads up from the BB.

Whenever I have a good hand, and I can't put my opponent on a likely hand that beats me, I look him up, if only for the information that will help me in future hands.

flawless_victory

09-05-2005, 11:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just follow flawless_victory next time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
v v good advice here.
seriously, i agree that while he can have many hands, JT is looking like the front runner on the turn... when the 5 pairs i like your hand plenty well, but when you get threebet the game is over. you cant win. if youd actually raised the riv and folded for a third bet, then, all metagame considerations aside, i believe that would have been perfect on all streets.