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jason_t
08-31-2005, 10:10 PM
UTG is 52/15/2 and was routinely open raising J9o etc.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#cc3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (8.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero
aK13
08-31-2005, 10:14 PM
I would call. I think you will see a bluff at least 10% of the time from this opponent given your read. But let me guess, you folded and he showed AJ.
baronzeus
08-31-2005, 10:16 PM
This is a great card for him to bluff on. Easy call.
Jake (The Snake)
08-31-2005, 10:19 PM
Folding here would be horrible from what I've seen so far at 3/6 short.

Everybody thinks that bluffing works, and this is obviously a good bluff card.

It's also possible villain has just two pair.
jba
08-31-2005, 10:23 PM
against an agressive opponent there are just too many set and 2-pair hands in this situation compared to how often he has a J here that we should call this last bet.
jba
08-31-2005, 10:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This is a great card for him to bluff on. Easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

for the same reasons, it is a great card for him to value raise marginal hands (like 2 pair) without fear of a 3-bet.
jason_t
08-31-2005, 10:28 PM
Folding never crossed my mind.
jba
08-31-2005, 10:34 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Folding never crossed my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think we need a better read to go this far.

is he definitely going to pay off with two pair?

is he definitely not going cap without a J?
jason_t
08-31-2005, 10:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding never crossed my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think we need a better read to go this far.

is he definitely going to pay off with two pair?

is he definitely not going cap without a J?

[/ QUOTE ]

wtsd = 41.46% and river aggression = 2.75. I didn't really have a more specific read than those datamined stats as it was early in the session.
SGS
08-31-2005, 11:10 PM
I get really upset and make a crying call. I am not good enough to lay this down heads up.

SGS
Catt
08-31-2005, 11:12 PM
I call. I don't understand why everyone is considering folding.
ggbman
08-31-2005, 11:20 PM
I think Jason is thinking about raising, he's looking for a reason to 3 bet this. Since villian doesn't often raise this river without a straight or a bluff, i don't see him calling a 3 bet with many hands, so it seems like a clear cut call to me.

Gabe
Catt
08-31-2005, 11:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think Jason is thinking about raising, he's looking for a reason to 3 bet this. Since villian doesn't often raise this river without a straight or a bluff, i don't see him calling a 3 bet with many hands, so it seems like a clear cut call to me.

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - I'm sure that Jason is considering call vs. raise. But a bunch of other guys are thinking the decision is between call vs. fold. I don't see how you can consider folding this hand to this guy. I prefer calling to raising because it doesn't strike me as too reasonable to expect this guy to call a three-bet with a bluff, while he could easily cap with a straight. I don't think the 8 helped him unless he has the straight, which means he either has the straight, is bluffing, or has some hand like AQ / AT that he "slowplayed" until the river. If he shows down some ridiculous A8s, then I'll have more confidence in 3-betting the next time around.