Other guy's shoes

[Vehn]

Here was something that I thought was mildly interesting. I raise UTG in a good $15/$30 and get two cold callers. You think of me as someone who plays "fast", which was told to me by the player after the hand. I think of you as a very tight but somewhat timid player. You are in the small blind with pocket kings and 3-bet. I 4-bet and both callers call. You cap it and everyone calls. Flop is Q-9-3 rainbow, you bet, I raise, LP (maniac) calls and you just call. Turn is another 9, you check, I bet, LP calls, and its on you with 15 bets in the pot. Do you call here? How about the river if its a blank? Do you overcall?

[Clarkmeister]

I fold on the turn.

[astroglide]

yeah, you've got to assume a set or a 9 because it was capped preflop and there was a single raise on the flop called by a maniac.

wtf?

[Clarkmeister]

Given the image vehn has of "me", coupled with my preflop action, there is no hand vehn can have that doesn't beat me. And I don't think he can even push the other KK that hard once I cap preflop. He knows I won't fold because he knows I think he's full of chit. Vehn has AA (90%) or QQ (10%), period. fold.

Of course, now he'll tell us he *did* have KK and I'll feel silly, but such is life. /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[astroglide]

if the 'timid' player thought he would overplay a hand like tt/jj/aq/etc here, he would certainly call down with kings. that is his take on him.

[Ed Miller]

This is a tough one. I was in exactly this situation about three weeks ago... except I was on the unhappy end. I had KK UTG and raised. An aggressive girl in the SB 3-bet and I capped. She didn't slow down at all on the flop betting and 3-betting my raise. Once I got 3-bet, I put her on AA almost without question, but I couldn't pull together the emotional fortitude to fold in such a big pot until the 3rd player in the hand raised the turn. You see, he had flopped a wheel with the A2o. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[andyfox]

Plus he does have a 5% chance of drawing out on Aces. However, maniac might have J-T which would give pocket kings zero outs against aces instead of two. Weak-tights will call down with overpairs against players they see as "fast."

[elysium]

hi vehn
i think that it's a definate call here. the action ends with you, and you're in the lead. also, this is the type of hand that folding on may inspire opponents to later take shots at you, but no one else. so, it's a definate call.

you have what is likely top two pair, a blank hits and you will make the over-call.

[Inthacup]

LOL. This is the kind of post I expect from you elysium. It must be fun to post first, read later. Keep up the good work.

[Vehn]

The SB thought for a bit and called the turn with KK. The river was a J, SB checked, I bet, and the maniac made it easy for the SB by raising. He folded, I thought for a second and decided he could have made one of the two gutshots and just called. Maniac showed Q3 sooted and my aces up were good.

I would play the other two kings the same way but probably would have checked the river.

[Vehn]

Actually may have been Q2s which makes more sense. Sorta..

[Coilean]

I think it's just being silly to rate your chances worse than being up against AA (60%), QQ (30%), KK (10%). Against that lineup you would have a trivial all-in call on the turn ( 0.1(16BB/2) + 0.9( 2/46(+17BB) + 44/46(-1BB) ) = +0.60BB.

Since you have to put in 2 more bets, your EV against that lineup is instead -0.26BB (substitute -2BB for -1BB in the previous equation). But given that you think vehn is full of chit for a reason, I think the requisite 1.6% of doubt is present to call him down. Yes, he only has to be pushing an AQs or screwing around with JJ 1.6% of the time to make it profitable to call him down. If X is the chance vehn is full of chit this time, your EV is X(+16BB) + (1-X)(-0.26BB), which leads to X > 0.01599. Granted, this doesn't account for the times the maniac has you both beat (or draws out), but I think it argues pretty strongly for a call down nonetheless.

[Clarkmeister]

Glad you are posting again.

I stick with fold. The key to the hand is that vehn *knows* that "I" think he's full of [censored], and he knows I am very weak-tightish. That's why you can fold. I don't think he screws around even 1.6% of the time here. This is a simple levels of thought problem. The weak player's thought stops with "Vehn is full of [censored]". Vehn knows this and leverages it to his advantage.

Trust me, there are countless people in Vegas who play against me and think that I am full of [censored], suffering from CIFOSI (Clark is full of [censored]-itis). And against them, I don't screw around or overplay simply because I don't *need* to. They aren't folding, so just rain the pain when I've got them and fold otherwise. I rather suspect that Vehn has a somewhat similar image and trust me, there is no way that if I were in Vehns shoes that this clown with the KK has *any* chance of being good. The fact that KK has to call both the turn and river makes it really unattractive. And as you mention, the 3rd person makes it even worse.

And despite what vehn posts, I don't know that he's going to push KK that hard against this particular player, when a cap means he is at best playing for a push. Maybe he would, but I think that's rather a mistake against this player with a Q on the board.

[34TheTruth34]

However, maniac might have J-T which would give pocket kings zero outs against aces instead of two

The board is paired, so his 100% of the 5% of the time he hits his hand is good. Don't know if that changes your response at all...