The Gr8 H8 of being donkbet [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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DrGutshot

08-30-2005, 04:22 AM

SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

I raise K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP, folds to him in the SB and he auto-calls. BB folds.

Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He quickly bets - getting 6:1, now what?

It is pretty safe to assume that he will bet the turn 100% of the time if I call, he may check if an ace falls, I'm not sure. I'd love to get some input - and hopefully some mathematical analysis if possible - assuming things like he would bet out a ten here 100% of the time, along with hands like Q8.

Thanks,

-DrG

vmacosta

08-30-2005, 07:03 AM

I'd peel one off and fold turn UI (raise obviously if K or Q hits). Folding here wouldnt be awful but these types generally pay off handsomely on the big bet streets.

08-30-2005, 07:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

I raise K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP, folds to him in the SB and he auto-calls. BB folds.

Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He quickly bets - getting 6:1, now what?

It is pretty safe to assume that he will bet the turn 100% of the time if I call, he may check if an ace falls, I'm not sure. I'd love to get some input - and hopefully some mathematical analysis if possible - assuming things like he would bet out a ten here 100% of the time, along with hands like Q8.

Thanks,

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a horrible flop for your hand, I dont care what type of opponent you are against, you should fold the flop. Theres no where else you can go here.

08-30-2005, 08:30 AM

If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

Turning Stone Pro

08-30-2005, 08:35 AM

Given the wackiness of the opposition, who could be betting almost anything here (underpairs come to mind on this hand), I peel one. If the flop was two-tone, I muck without a second thought.

TSP

08-30-2005, 08:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

08-30-2005, 09:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you make these assumptions the hand is easy:

1) has you beat now
2) will bet the turn no matter what falls, call a raise and check/call the river
3) K/Q outs are clean.
4) The running straight draw isn't significant.

Then you're about a 7-1 dog to improve on the turn and are getting 12-1 odds.

Given how extremely good those odds are, I'd say this is a call even if you drop the assumptions I mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 6 small bets in the pot right now. On the turn, given that my assumption that he bet/calls it, that's 2 big bets earned, so that makes 10 total small bets earned. On the river you earn one more big bet for a total of 12. Sound?

The real flaw in my argument is that the assumptions are all unsafe. However, given how obvious the call is if they were safe, I think the call is still correct in the actual situation.

TimM

08-30-2005, 10:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 6 small bets in the pot right now. On the turn, given that my assumption that he bet/calls it, that's 2 big bets earned, so that makes 10 total small bets earned. On the river you earn one more big bet for a total of 12. Sound?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because it costs you 2 more small bets when you miss on the turn.

If miss the turn, you probably have just enough odds to call the turn bet if you assume your 6 outs are good and he will always lose 2 big bets on the river when you hit. (5-1 on turn call, plus 2 bets implied = 7-1). But these are very optimistic assumptions.

08-30-2005, 10:25 AM

I would call here. Most people I would raise but I doubt that he folds and with a guy like it is impossible to figure out what exactly he has as of yet. I agree with thr responses above if a k-q-or even an ace hit raise.

Buffro
patexashold-em.com

TimM

08-30-2005, 10:28 AM

mike l.

08-30-2005, 10:58 AM

it's close between peeling and folding, and i dont think raising is right. KQ on that board is a mess against any player. i like folding and not thinking about it for even a second and it'd take a pretty great poster to convince me that's particularly wrong.

08-30-2005, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where do you come up with the 12-1 odds here?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 6 small bets in the pot right now. On the turn, given that my assumption that he bet/calls it, that's 2 big bets earned, so that makes 10 total small bets earned. On the river you earn one more big bet for a total of 12. Sound?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because it costs you 2 more small bets when you miss on the turn.

If miss the turn, you probably have just enough odds to call the turn bet if you assume your 6 outs are good and he will always lose 2 big bets on the river when you hit. (5-1 on turn call, plus 2 bets implied = 7-1). But these are very optimistic assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there a flaw in logic on your turn argument? If you call planning to check/fold the turn unless you improve, given my assumptions, I've shown that the play is correct. If calling on the turn UI is in fact a better play then folding on the turn UI, then the line of calling the flop, then calling the turn UI or raising improved and making the obvious play on the river must be +EV since the other one is +EV.

If I'm wrong on this please clarify.

I agree with you that my assumptions are "very optimistic", but I still think that, given our read on villain and the overwhelmingly correct odds that you are getting based on my assumptions make this a correct call even in a less perfect world.

DcifrThs

08-30-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB here is a wacky player - roughly 65/30/1 for you stats people. I wish I could provide a decent read - but he has basically no clear patterns. He has check/called with mid-undercards, gutshots. He has bet out small pairs, draws, really whatever he feels like, he does.

I raise K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP, folds to him in the SB and he auto-calls. BB folds.

Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He quickly bets - getting 6:1, now what?

It is pretty safe to assume that he will bet the turn 100% of the time if I call, he may check if an ace falls, I'm not sure. I'd love to get some input - and hopefully some mathematical analysis if possible - assuming things like he would bet out a ten here 100% of the time, along with hands like Q8.

Thanks,

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a horrible flop for your hand, I dont care what type of opponent you are against, you should fold the flop. Theres no where else you can go here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are aware you have Khigh right?

Barron

DcifrThs

08-30-2005, 12:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it's close between peeling and folding, and i dont think raising is right. KQ on that board is a mess against any player. i like folding and not thinking about it for even a second and it'd take a pretty great poster to convince me that's particularly wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'll give it a whirl mike.

ive first been extremely surprised by the # of these guys that treat the under card OESD (idiot end) like the nuts. 6xs or 6xanything is a very strong possibility here.

Khigh is not a mess as it has 6 verly likely clean outs, a surprising amount of showdown value, and is if not certaintly, then probably the best hand right now.

just because the flop comes all midling cards that players like these like to play doesn't mean THEY HAVE THEM! remember, they like to play ALL cards! plus, combinatorically, there is now a lower probability of the villian holding a 9/8/7, than naked 6s and Ts. this is offset a bit by the fact that he bet.

that being said, i like a raise here for a few reasons.

1) you may have the best hand and wil certianly be called by a worse one

2) you may get a free turn card

3) you may get a free showdown. or you should consider betting the turn and then showing it down for free ont he river.

4) if bet into again ont he turn after raising you can fold (these guys will either 3bet the flop or check the turn but rarely call the flop and bet the turn).

and thats all i can thnk of right now.

i know the saying is "against a lag you have to tighten up." but i think this sayin is wrong to an extent. if i could find a way to search PT for all the Khigh showdowns i have won by being aggressive vs. these guys on early rounds in pots like this im sure it'll be a ratio of like 1.5:1 win:loss in this spot, either by improving my hand, or getting free cards/showdowns.

there mike...thats my argument for raising.

NOW...all that being said, the 3 options have their benefits, and in some circumstances clearly calling or raising could be -ev making folding the best. but here against a 65/x/1, you can't give up on this hand that easily. (think about how often villian has to bet/raise vs. call to keep those actions at the same ratio when he plays 65% of his hands)

Barron

Lmn55d

08-30-2005, 12:26 PM

Dcifr, the problem I have with raising in these spots is that I feel players like this is, if willing to donk a weaker hand yours, will often 3bet the flop liberally. It's also important that if he does indeed have a draw, he often has 10-14 outs against you. I sometimes peel in this spot.

DcifrThs

08-30-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dcifr, the problem I have with raising in these spots is that I feel players like this is, if willing to donk a weaker hand yours, will often 3bet the flop liberally. It's also important that if he does indeed have a draw, he often has 10-14 outs against you. I sometimes peel in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i provided an argument for raising. i dont raise it every time. i dont call it every time. i dont fold it every time.

Barron

TimM

08-31-2005, 01:47 AM

This is exactly what I was thinking. I can think of one other reason to raise, and that's meta-game. You'll be heads up in raised pots with this guy a lot, and you don't want to let him keep donk-betting you with impunity every time you miss. Catching him with nothing or hitting your outs a few times should slow him down a bit and make him more predictable in future hands.

2ndGoat

08-31-2005, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what I was thinking. I can think of one other reason to raise, and that's meta-game. You'll be heads up in raised pots with this guy a lot, and you don't want to let him keep donk-betting you with impunity every time you miss. Catching him with nothing or hitting your outs a few times should slow him down a bit and make him more predictable in future hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that metagame is going to kick in for this guy. A lot of these super-donks aren't going to think that far ahead, or will continue to donkbet in these situations just to be defiant, even if you have shown them the error of their ways.

2nd

Nigel

08-31-2005, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
or will continue to donkbet in these situations just to be defiant, even if you have shown them the error of their ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be donk betting all day against someone who is going to consistently raise K high when I do.

TimM

08-31-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be donk betting all day against someone who is going to consistently raise K high when I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you VPIP 65% of your hands?

TimM

08-31-2005, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that metagame is going to kick in for this guy. A lot of these super-donks aren't going to think that far ahead, or will continue to donkbet in these situations just to be defiant, even if you have shown them the error of their ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many will get passive and predictable after you burn them with this kind of play a few times. It's as if they think you have their number or something.

Some get defiant. That is nice too because you can switch up and get them to put in lots of chips when they are behind.

Just for fun, and to counter the gr8 h8 of being donkbet, here's a triple donkbet lindy:

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: TimM is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, TimM raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets, TimM raises, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets, TimM raises, BB calls.

River: (8.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets, TimM raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB.
Results in white below:
TimM has Jh Kh (a flush, ace high.)
BB has 7d 8d (two pairs, eights and sevens.)
TimM wins 12.10 BB.