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View Full Version : River fold headsup with AA against TAG

Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 06:41 PM
OK, i don't usually make these sorts of fold. I have 10k hands on this opponent and he is 24/10 with 1.43 AF. I really don't think he'd 3bet the turn with less than two pair here. His turn AF is 1.5. Kx spades just hit too and I don't even think he'd push that hand on the turn with an AF like that.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB
Poldi
08-29-2005, 06:53 PM
Trust your reads.
Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 06:54 PM
well my reads are only his stats...is that good enough??
NLSoldier
08-29-2005, 07:06 PM
I think not getting to showdown with a pair of aces against an agressive opponent HU is not a good idea.
wheelz
08-29-2005, 07:17 PM
What were you hoping for on the river?
Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 07:26 PM
an A or the board to pair.
Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 07:26 PM
he's not aggressive though.
wheelz
08-29-2005, 07:45 PM
That's what I figured... I just wasn't sure if you had a better idea of which you were hoping to pair. It sucks just having to hope that whatever paired doesn't match the one that's in his hand.

I think a K on the river is actually a good card for you here though.
bank
08-29-2005, 08:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
he's not aggressive though.

[/ QUOTE ]

The subject line should read "weak-tight" not TAG...with those numbers.
Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 08:37 PM
yea, TAG was wrong acronym. He's probably closer to tight-passive.
BreakEvenPlayer
08-29-2005, 09:18 PM
"If your plan is to fold an overpair to the board in a heads up pot, you need a new plan."

Not verbatim but this is classic Clarkmeister. You can't fold here.
Redeye
08-29-2005, 09:38 PM
You say he's not that aggressive. If thats the case villian is probably never semi-bluff 3betting the turn. Being that tight, he probably doesn't have two pair on the flop (45, k5, and k4 don't seem likely) and probably doens't 3bet a lone K on the tun. I just think if you're calling the turn, folding the river is bad.
mister
08-29-2005, 10:20 PM
I always assumed that since you need to be right here under 10% of the time, that this was an easy call. But I've let hands like this go also when it was the last spade and also paired up the top pair. Just the spade I think I pay him off, especially after putting in so many bets on the turn.
Lmn55d
08-29-2005, 10:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Being that tight, he probably doesn't have two pair on the flop (45, k5, and k4 don't seem likely)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? I think a defense with k5s and k4s is routine for a player with these stats. I don't know his folded bb to steal numbers. I think k5o and k4o are possible too, as well as 45s. Also 44, 55, and 77. K7 is also possible.
helpmeout
08-29-2005, 10:38 PM
He could easily have KQ as your raise was only a steal raise.

Its a tough fold but with that spade on the river surely he must have hit.

10BB pot with Aces HU i think I'd call here. 1 in 10 he is doing something funky.

Some people do some pretty strange things HU.
sam h
08-29-2005, 11:50 PM
The problem is that the strength of your hand is so well concealed. You easily could be raising the turn for a free showdown with a small pair here, and so I couldn't put this opponent past threebetting with a king based on numbers alone. I don't think aggression factor is very reliable in making these kinds of decisions. Plus, while that is a low AF, especially for a tight PF player, it is not ridiculously low.
tansoku
08-30-2005, 01:55 AM
Did you purposely not 3 bet the flop so you could raise the turn?

Does a flop 3bet help define his hand better?