20/40 66

[jason_t]

Bay 101 20/40

Loose/passive all around with the exception of the CO who is unknown.

I am on the Button with 66 and I limp after two EP limpers and a CO limp. The SB completes and the BB checks.

Flop: 234r
Checked to EP1 who bets, EP2 calls, CO raises, I cold call, the blinds fold and EP1 and EP2 call.

Turn: 2
Checked to CO who bets, I raise, EP1 folds, EP2 calls all in, CO calls.

River: 3
Checked to me, I bet....

[jgorham]

Unless the EP players are passive to the point that they will see the turn no matter what once they have already invested one bet I 3bet this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Bay 101 20/40

Loose/passive all around with the exception of the CO who is unknown.

I am on the Button with 66 and I limp after two EP limpers and a CO limp. The SB completes and the BB checks.

Flop: 234r
Checked to EP1 who bets, EP2 calls, CO raises, I cold call, the blinds fold and EP1 and EP2 call.

Turn: 2
Checked to CO who bets, I raise, EP1 folds, EP2 calls all in, CO calls.

River: 3
Checked to me, I bet....

[/ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: Of course call. FLOP: Ok lets see here, one guy bets the flop, one guy calls this flop, and another guy raises. 3 people are interested in this flop and there is no flush draw. The odds that your hand is best right now is close to zero. And if you somehow are in the lead, the odds of your hand holding up unimproved is close to zero. So all you really have here is a one card gutshot and a draw to a set, Youre getting 5-1 to call and none of your outs are clean, and youre not even closing the action. When you hit your gutshot, sometimes you'll split the pot or lose to a higher straight, and often times when you hit your set, you'll lose to a straight. To sum things up, you should be folding this flop. You simply dont have the odds to call. TURN: If you get to the turn, the raise here is not a bad play since you want to get all overcards out of there. However if youre 3 bet by the cutoff you should fold since that would likely mean youre drawing to 2 outs, and you wont have the pot odds to continue. RIVER: You should not be value betting here, When the cutoff calls your turn raise he either has you beat or was drawing to the straight and now missed. There is absolutely no reason to bet here, you may even get checkraised bluffed in this spot(even with an all in guy people are dumb enough to do this)
WES

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: Of course call. FLOP: Ok lets see here, one guy bets the flop, one guy calls this flop, and another guy raises. 3 people are interested in this flop and there is no 2 outs, and you wont have the pot odds to continue. RIVER: You should not be value betting here, When the cutoff calls your turn raise he either has you beat or was drawing to the straight and now missed. There is absolutely no reason to bet here, you may even get checkraised bluffed in this spot(even with an all in guy people are dumb enough to do this)
WES

[/ QUOTE ]
WELL: I just have one thing to SAY: Wes I think your analysis was excellent although I must comment on one part when you mention the FLOP: did you actually take into consideration these players tendencies and their range of HANDS: so what hands do you think are likely holdings for these PLAYERS? (cuz you know that's important n stuff)
EINBERT

Intersting hand. I like the way you played it up to the river, where it's close, but I prefer a check through.

[PokerBob]

3 bet that flop.

[PokerBob]

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To sum things up, you should be folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[DeezNutz3]

im w/ pokerbob here 3 bet this flop

[ QUOTE ]
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PREFLOP: Of course call. FLOP: Ok lets see here, one guy bets the flop, one guy calls this flop, and another guy raises. 3 people are interested in this flop and there is no 2 outs, and you wont have the pot odds to continue. RIVER: You should not be value betting here, When the cutoff calls your turn raise he either has you beat or was drawing to the straight and now missed. There is absolutely no reason to bet here, you may even get checkraised bluffed in this spot(even with an all in guy people are dumb enough to do this)
WES

[/ QUOTE ]
WELL: I just have one thing to SAY: Wes I think your analysis was excellent although I must comment on one part when you mention the FLOP: did you actually take into consideration these players tendencies and their range of HANDS: so what hands do you think are likely holdings for these PLAYERS? (cuz you know that's important n stuff)
EINBERT

[/ QUOTE ]
I dont know the specific tendencies of these players, all i know is what jason said, they are passive and the CO is an unknown. Heres my hand range of EP1: Most likely 77-99, could also have 5x hand and be betting a straight draw if hes loose, and he can also have a set. EP2: He just called on this board, so his most likely hand is a very weak draw like overcards. The CO: He could have a straight draw and is raising for a free card, a set, an overpair 77-99, and he could have the made straight with A5s or the more unlikely holding 65s. Given these range of hands, it is clear to me that the hero is trailing to atleast one opponent and the pot is still small, he is simply not getting the pot odds nor the implied odds to continue in this hand. So its an easy fold to me. Calling here or raising here is -EV in my opinion. Also, these hand ranges are based soley on the flop play up to the decision point of the hero.

[jgorham]

Also I think the river is a good value bet. You will get paid off here by a 4 a lot, and even A high sometimes.

[ QUOTE ]
Also I think the river is a good value bet. You will get paid off here by a 4 a lot, and even A high sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]
You must be a very optimistic person.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Bay 101 20/40

[/ QUOTE ]

did you get lost?

[Klepton]

i find it amazing that you actually played 20-40

did you actually acquire confidence?

if so, how?

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
To sum things up, you should be folding this flop. You simply dont have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]


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RIVER: You should not be value betting here, When the cutoff calls your turn raise he either has you beat or was drawing to the straight and now missed.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

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[oreogod]

In case it wasnt implied enough. Flop 3-bet makes this hand prettier. River bet is goooood.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
3 bet that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the idea of facing those other monkies with 2 cold and a really tough decision.

[KidPokerX]

Agreed.
I think this a rare hand that was played as best as possible. Having said that, I agree that the river bet was a profitable one.

[B Dids]

If you think that anybody is folding to a flop raise, you might make it. My "I wasn't there and have no clue" bet would be that nobody is folding, and that I'm not sure what a raise does for you. I kinda like your line, assuming you were raising a safe turn and check/folding some uglier ones.

[Jdanz]

because we like opponents to make mistakes, and everyone who has overcards is going to be correct to call one bet back but not two.

[Jdanz]

most people without ak lay down overcards to a 3 bet, if they don't this is the best 20/40 game i've ever heard of.


From what i understand of the commerce midlimit games, i'd assume your hand is still good on the flop, and if it's not, you're really not losing much money on the three bet as you've got 6 likely outs, and you're going to slow down any hand that's beating you other then a straight or set (read 77s-ts, i think we can say no one has js-as).

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds that your hand is best right now is close to zero. And if you somehow are in the lead, the odds of your hand holding up unimproved is close to zero. So all you really have here is a one card gutshot and a draw to a set, Youre getting 5-1 to call and none of your outs are clean, and youre not even closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you actually play poker?

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
Heres my hand range of EP1: Most likely 77-99, could also have 5x hand and be betting a straight draw if hes loose, and he can also have a set. EP2: He just called on this board, so his most likely hand is a very weak draw like overcards. The CO: He could have a straight draw and is raising for a free card, a set, an overpair 77-99, and he could have the made straight with A5s or the more unlikely holding 65s. Given these range of hands,

[/ QUOTE ]


Hand Ranges:

EP1: A2, A3, A4, A5, Ax, 6x, 5x 4x, 22, 33, 44, 55, 77, 88, small chance of random overcards.

EP2: Ax, 5x, 6x, 87, 97, 98, T8, T9, J8, J9, JT, Q8, Q9, QT, QJ, K8, K9, KT, KJ, KQ

CO: Same as EP1 but probably not random overcards.

[elindauer]

This looks like a pretty well played hand. I'd prefer a flop 3-bet because there are oh so many overcards that can fold and save me the pot. Waiting for the turn to raise has it's merits too though.

Value betting the river looks pretty easy. They can put you on a missed straight draw and call with a 4, 55, even ace high. With no one raising preflop, you can't be too concerned about an overpair. If someone calls and shows 77, tough break.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
3 people are interested in this flop and there is no flush draw. The odds that your hand is best right now is close to zero.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Anyone with a single card from A-5 probably believes they have the best hand. Any ace likely believes they have a 7-10 out draw against a bettor on this board. You think an overpair is no good? That's crazy.

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And if you somehow are in the lead, the odds of your hand holding up unimproved is close to zero.

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Huh? In this hand, it's particularly likely that the opponents share a common overcard, namely, the ace. While 66 is certainly vulnerable when leading, I'd say it wins about half the time when it's ahead. Nothing like "close to zero".

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...none of your outs are clean ... When you hit your gutshot, sometimes you'll split the pot or lose to a higher straight ...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't think a 5 is a jackpot card, your hand reading is terrible. A five will make one and probably two opponents a big second best hand which is drawing nearly dead. Fearing that you'll catch a 5 and lose is simply fearing monsters.

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To sum things up, you should be folding this flop.

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I may have NEVER folded an overpair + gutshot, and I certainly wouldn't start here.

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TURN: ... if youre 3 bet by the cutoff you should fold ...

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Estimating outs at two seems very pessimistic. You really want to fold this hand, don't you?

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RIVER: ... There is absolutely no reason to bet here,

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Absolutely no reason? You can't even conceive of someone calling with, say, top pair? Are you suggesting that 55 will fold every time, but 77 will call every time?

-Eric

[elindauer]

When I try to decide whether to 3-bet the flop or raise the turn, I'm thinking specifically about a hand like A-something. From his point of view, he has 2 overcards AND a gutshot. A nice hand. From my point of view, he has two overcards, one of which I will have an easy time spotting if it hits the board, and he has a 4-out draw to a 2nd best hand I'd love him to hit.

Now, what I'm wondering is this: will this hand call 2 cold on the flop? Will it call 2 cold unimproved on the turn? Do I WANT him to fold for 2 bets on the flop? What about for 2 bets on the turn?

None of these answers are immediately obvious to me, especially when you mix in the liklihood that multiple players are on this exact same draw, killing each other's ace outs.

Thoughts?

-Eric

[theBruiser500]

what were the results? elindaur good posts, i was thinking fold but you are clearly right about not folding. as to raising flop or raising turn something to consider is that if CO has Ax and was raising for a free card and to check behind on the turn, with you acting behind him he'll just check to you now and you loose value and your chance to force people out on either street.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
Also I think the river is a good value bet. You will get paid off here by a 4 a lot, and even A high sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. All of the players involved were described as loose and passive. Therefore, I doubt that the turn bet was a stone cold bluff. Therefore, you could still get paid by a 4, but you could also be "paid" by an overpair or being set up for the kill (in my experience, loose-passive players love to "shop" for monsters and they love to get back at aggressive players that "shouldn't be running people out of the pot" by check-raising the river"). I think the range of hands that you can beat that will call this river bet are very narrow. I would guess that you would only win 30% of the time when you are called.