QJs top pair

[Cheshire]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

As far as reads go so far I have seen UTG check call all the way with top pair, and check the nuts while last to act on the river. So he/she hasnt exactly been aggressive. On the flop I have top pair and some back door draws, but my backdoor straight draws make it very easy to be up against a full house. Guess my question is does anyone keep going with this?

[hemstock]

I think you can raise it preflop.
The flop is really read depended. You have top pair, a bdfd ans a bdsd. So that's 3 outs right there. And another 2 Queens that's 5 outs JUST in case you are behind here. I would call.

[Eeegah]

Please don't post action after you fold, it can skew replies.

Hm, this is a tricky one. Let's assume we're behind for now: it's time to count outs. We can improve via 2 Queens, 3 jacks, 1.5 for our BDFD and 1.5 for our BDSD. That's 8 pre-discount outs, but I don't like our 2 pair since he may have trips. Let's say 6.5 outs, or about a 16.7% chance of improvement. We're being asked to put in 2/9, or 22% of the pot. Thus, unless we have the best hand often enough to make up for this, we can't call here.

So the question is, do we have the best hand 7% of the time or so? It's possible that SB and UTG+1 both have queens with lower kickers, but that's really unlikely. An OESD however is a good possibility. I think we're ahead at least 7% here, but the added possibility that it'll be raised behind you pretty much turns it into a coinflip to me. This seems like it's an EV-neutral decision to me (even the rake might be enough to tip it to a fold), so I can't really say one way or the other.

This would have been a good hand to put in my quiz /images/graemlins/smile.gif

(Also, sorry about me using percentages instead of ratios for my calculations, but it makes it a lot easier for me. I shoud do a writeup on it some time.)

(Edit: forgot about opponent's straight draw, so it's not as clear a fold to me.)