TPTK on flop, but then....

[Bats]

I couldn't figure out what this guy was doing. What do I do here?

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG (poster) checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Final Pot: 9.25 BB
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 raises, CO folds.

<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?????</font>,

I had TPTK on the flop, but flopped straights are possible and draws almost certain. But with top pair I bet, get raised and call. Could be beat right here with a straight, but who knows. Turn gives a straight to anyone with a Q, and a paired K beats me, but I bet figuring I'll fold to a raise. No one raises me, so no one likely has a straight or a K. River gives me two pair, I bet. MP3 who has been calling and checking raises and the CO who raised the flop folds. What's likely going on? Do I fold, call, raise?

[Fryguy]

check/fold this turn with confidence.

[aces_dad]

Why are you confident about laying down the turn?

[@bsolute_luck]

raise preflop (this is the second post today i think i've seen a limped AJo).

bad turn bet IMO- should have 3-bet the flop instead.
fold the river.

others may scream "it's a big pot!!!" yeah, but you only have 2nd pair and unless you have a read this guy is a doof and bets a T or J-weak kicker, you're screwed.

[aK13]

Raise preflop. 3bet the flop.

[aces_dad]

Are you really considering raising 2nd TPBK on this board?

You realize bottom pair may have made trips on the river right?

The options are either call or fold in my opinion, and I make the crying call on the river.

That is definitely pretty weird. I can't see raising, as any 9, Q, or K has us beat. I'm pretty confident we're beat, but by my calculations there only needs to be a 7.55% chance that we're ahead to make calling correct. So probably you should call, and then you'll have a read on this guy for next time.

[Bats]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really considering raising 2nd TPBK on this board?

You realize bottom pair may have made trips on the river right?

The options are either call or fold in my opinion, and I make the crying call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I wasn't going to raise.

I figured he either hit a set of nines, or had slow-played a straight on the turn. I passed on the crying call and folded. Then later wished I had made the call.

[aces_dad]

It's such an unexpected bet from someone who's been just calling post flop, that I am inclined to make the crying call here.

A raise from the flop raiser is more concerning IMO.

[Bats]

[ QUOTE ]
It's such an unexpected bet from someone who's been just calling post flop, that I am inclined to make the crying call here.

A raise from the flop raiser is more concerning IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was confused because the "wrong" guy raised me after checking the turn K, and the flop raiser folded. You're right on the crying call, because if nothing else, I'd know what the heck he had.

First, raise this PF. AJo doesn't like multiway pots so get less ppl in on the action. I'm thinking a PF raise would've solved all your problems.

Anyway, its likely that MP3 landed his straight and that CO played a pair (possibly TPWK) too aggresssively. You c/f this river and make sure to raise PF next time.

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold this turn with confidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, upon further inpsection, this is the wrong way to approach this turn.

First thing first: Hero's now got a backdoor straight draw to accompany his pair on flop, which is now only second best. He's now dealing with 10.5:1 odds to land that last Q to make the nut straight on the river.

While Hero is not getting pot odds to make a bet, his bet could likely create implied odds once he gets callers.

There's a couple of things that could happen here:

&gt;Hero bets, all fold (7.25BB). You take down the pot, best scenario.

&gt;Hero bets, all call (9.25BB). Second best, because you've now opened the door for implied odds to hit you on the river.

&gt;Hero bets, MP3 raises. This is the best raise you can confront, because you have position on CO.
-If he folds (9.25BB), you fold because you're not getting implied odds with a 2-handed river.
-If he calls (10.25BB), you're now getting the right odds to make a second call (10.25:1 plus any money on the river he throws in).

&gt;Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO raises (10.25BB). Interesting scenario, because Hero is getting great odds (10.25:1 plus the river), but there's no assurance that you get to the river 3-handed, which is what you want. Your lack of info comes from acting first after the raise, so you lay the hand down here.

Now, checking kills all of this. Your check:

a.) shows weakness, which makes opponents willing to bet into you
b.) kills your odds with a bet or a raise, because you're missing out on extra BBs that are put into the pot by your turn bet

All in all, you NEED to bet this turn. You've missing out on trememdous value by not doing so. C/fing the turn, as I suggested before, smacks of weakness and is -EV in the long run.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop. 3bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes AK, but we are in the ML forum, we need to know why! Lets see if I understand.

Raise the flop: We have 2 cold callers and we are in mid position with an undominateable jack. This hand is best at making top pair, and has some connectedness. You have two callers who probably limped with worse hands. You would really love to be the button against these two guys. Raising here might very well get you the button. Your hand is strong enough that you don't mind a re-raise.

I think raising &gt; folding &gt; calling.

3 bet the flop You have a vulnerable TPTK. You don't want to give MP3 anything like good odds to draw. Face him with 2 cold now to get him out of the pot. You very well might be Capped by CO. More likely you will be back driving this hand.

CO has 4 possible reasons for his raise. He flopped a strait and is betting for value. He has Top Pair and is raising to protect his vulnerable hand. He has Mid or Bottom pair is and raising as a semi-bluff and to protect his hand. He has a 4 flush and is pumping it for value while he has a pot equity edge. His range of hands are AQo, any Jack and if he is really tricky, any two /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs.

You are ahead but vulnerable in most situations. If you are behind the flopped strait, he will probably cap.

[aK13]

Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[DontRaisePlz]

I'm definitely favor of 3-betting this flop. Planning to donkbet and checking scare cards on the turn won't give you any advantages IMO.

[GTSamIAm]

Call and see what he plays this way.

[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't that far ahead. I don't think most of the stop and go plays people do are smart. More like Fancy Play Syndrom.

-D

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Value is the biggest reason for both.

AJ &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; hands that people limp

3bet TP/TK since you are very likely to be ahead in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the stop and go not suitable here? Missing out on value?

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't that far ahead. I don't think most of the stop and go plays people do are smart. More like Fancy Play Syndrom.

-D

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that far ahead? TPTK and most callers are chasing draws?

-AC

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
TPTK and most callers are chasing draws?

-AC

[/ QUOTE ]

Even more reason to bet, no?

-D