LPP wakes up on the turn [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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magates

08-22-2005, 04:15 PM

BB, UTG+2, and MP2 are all loose, passive players.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero . . .

davelin

08-22-2005, 04:16 PM

I've seen way too much bluffing when the board pairs these days to ever consider folding here.

irishpint

08-22-2005, 04:20 PM

<blockquote>En respuesta a:<hr />
I've seen way too much bluffing when the board pairs these days to ever consider folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly. ill call this down and lose most of the day, but im not folding an overpair to a bet here.

magates

08-22-2005, 04:28 PM

I couldn't fold here either, but I wasn't sure if calling down was better than raising and folding to a 3-bet.

grjr

08-22-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't fold here either, but I wasn't sure if calling down was better than raising and folding to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Costs you the same to just call down and you get to see a showdown. Not to mention you have 2 outs to the almost nuts. I hate that raise/fold line.

aces_dad

08-22-2005, 04:38 PM

I think I'm inclined to call down instead of raising here as I want to get to showdown cheaply against villian without a read that he will bluff bet paired boards.

The only person you can face with 2 bets anyway would be BB so it's mostly about raising for value if you think you have villian beat.

MrWookie47

08-22-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't fold here either, but I wasn't sure if calling down was better than raising and folding to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Costs you the same to just call down and you get to see a showdown. Not to mention you have 2 outs to the almost nuts. I hate that raise/fold line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise/fold is a good line against players who are capable of folding a better hand. No way is a better hand folding on this board, even in the hands of a weak-tightie, because of the board texture and how few hands are better than yours. I agree that line is terrible here, but there are spots for it.

I call this down.

magates

08-22-2005, 05:11 PM

Yeah, I called it down, but started second guessing myself - I wasn't thinking of raising to fold out a better hand here, I was thinking of raising to get more bets in if I'm ahead, and lose the same by folding to a 3-bet if I'm behind (I really wasn't considering my chances of hitting a 2-outer on the river).

eviljeff

08-22-2005, 05:26 PM

*grunch*

I'd pop him. he could easily be donking an 8, a 2, a pp, or something random. you need a very strong read here to lay down. if he 3bets I fold and if he donks the river I prob just call.

magates

08-22-2005, 07:45 PM

Thanks for the responses. If anyone's curious, here's the hand with results.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

River: (9.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Results:
UTG+2 has 9c 5c (three of a kind, fives).
MP2 has 3h 3d (two pair, fives and threes).
Hero has Ks Kc (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 12.25 BB.

Shillx

08-22-2005, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen way too much bluffing when the board pairs these days to ever consider folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah no way we are folding now (talk about a weak-tight move). I like calling here though since the 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif didn't create any new draws and there is a good chance that we are drawing to just 2 outs.

magates

08-22-2005, 10:33 PM

Ok, I've tried to calculate the EV of calling down vs. raising and folding to a 3-bet. It looks like the two K outs make calling more +ev than raising/folding. There are other possibilities but I doubt they matter enough to bother including.

The numbers are just estimates, and I'll assume BB folds on the turn, and MP2 calls down

Raise and fold to a 3-bet:
85% he 3-bets, I fold and lose 2BBs
15% he calls with a hand I beat and I win 12.25BBs (8.25BBs in the pot + 2BB from UTG+2, and 2BB from MP2)
.85(-2)+.15(12.25) = 0.14BB

Call Down:
81% he shows trip 5s and I lose 2BBs
4% a K falls on the river and I win 12.25BBs (8.25 + 4BB)
15% KK is good and I win 10.25BBs
.81(-2)+.04(12.25)+.15(10.25) = 0.41BB