Other Half of Ciaffone Article

[David Sklansky]

He recommends folding ace king when his one opponent raises his turn bet when he catches an ace and bets out a second time. The other cards are 973. (He raised preflop and got three calls. Then bet the flop and got one call behind him) He says it's not worth taking 9-1 even if he is a 7-1 dog on average against aces up, because he might be up against a set. True . He goes on to say that he is not worried about being raised bluffed by most players in 10-20 size games. OK. But there are two problems. One of course is that when players see him folding in spots like this they will start to get in their heads to make raise semibluffs on the turn even if they are not doing it now. Thus better to take slightly the worst of it to avoid these future dilemmas.

But the big error in Ciaffone's analysis is something else. He missed something. And because of what he missed his admonition to fold in this particular case is just terrible. Who can tell me what I am speaking of?

[J.R.]

The turn raiser may have called pre-flop with a big ace like AJs or AQs, called the flop with overcards and/or a backdoor flush draw and then raised top pair on the turn, so Ciaffone may be folding the best hand.

[Boris]

It's very possible you are being raised by A-Q, A-J, A-10.

[PokerPrince]

It's quite possible you're being raised by an inferior Ace that peeled for overcards on the flop. Many players will call the preflop raise with AQ,AJ,AT and raise the turn when one comes. You could be laying down the best hand and that would be disastrous.

PokerPrince

[elysium]

hi mr.sklansky
well, i think the player acting first has about an 11-1 opportunity to improve to A's over K's. that combined with the odds that he just might still have the lead would argue for calling. but the thing is, what if his opponent is raising to represent the A ? i would think that since the player acting first is holding an A, and there is an A on the board, the chances that the player acting last doesn't have an A but is only representing one, seem to justify a call.

or, the player acting last may be on a draw and think that the player acting first is representing the ace. whenever an A falls and a player comes to life, you've got to wonder if the ace has really helped.

[Ed Miller]

But the big error in Ciaffone's analysis is something else. He missed something. And because of what he missed his admonition to fold in this particular case is just terrible. Who can tell me what I am speaking of?

His opponent could easily (and perhaps is likely to) have a hand like AK, AQ, or AJ.

[hillbilly]

i think he may have missed a very nice opportunity to check-raise the turn.

[mikelow]

There is no substitute for real-time experience in live play, IMO. Every situation is a bit different. You have to know your opponents also.

[BruceZ]

His opponent could easily have an overpair, especially TT which picks up an inside straight draw, and is now raising to make Ciafone not bet the river or fold a better hand on the turn. He could also have AK and is trying to pick up the whole pot instead of splitting. He probably doesn't have a weaker ace because he should know Ciafone probably has a bigger one (ace that is) since he raised preflop.

[Kevin J]

There are 3 reasons you don't fold:

1. You might have the best hand.

2). If you don't have the best hand, you might outdraw your opponent.

And the one no one has mentioned yet...

3). Your opponent might check the river.

I think this last reason is often overlooked by weak/tightish types. They automatically assume it's going to cost them two more bets. But this isn't always the case and needs to be factored into the equation. IMO-

[Coilean]

Besides the possibilities of AK-J that others mentioned (which many strong players might raise with, possibly intending to check the river if they don't improve), your opponent might also have a weaker two pair like 97 or 73s (I didn't read the article, so the preflop action and/or opponent type might preclude such a holding). Against such a hand you have 8 outs, and should continue.

[Piers]

>One of course is that when players see him folding in spots like this they will start to get in >their heads to make raise semibluffs on the turn even if they are not doing it now. Thus >better to take slightly the worst of it to avoid these future dilemmas.

I keep seeing this sort of advice, and while there is truth in it, without any further context I think it is dangerous, especially as it is usually phrased much more sloppily than above.

The way I see it, opponents that are tricky enough that you usually expect to call down, you should encourage to semibluff more. Of course you don’t want to increase the trickyness of opponents that you can usually safely fold to after they have shown aggression. So there is usually a missing caveat when someone says something like this.

Antidotal proof that of course doesn’t:

A few weeks ago I was playing on Paradise 20/40 and everyone folded to me in the small blind, I raised and got called. After betting the flop and turn I folded to a turn raise. OK looks a bit weak tight.

Now during three of the next six hands I found myself heads up against different opponents with weak made hands (Ace highs and underpiar). I got raised on the turn and bet at on the river. I am sure Ciaffone /Jim would recommend folding. I was shown two complete nothing hands, and a busted gut shot. The indication is my weak looking fold in the first hand actually gained me about 9 big bets during the next few hands.


Oh and Ciaffone appears to have not considered the possibility that his opponent might make a value raise when hitting top pair on the turn.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Piers:

You wrote:

I was shown two complete nothing hands, and a busted gut shot. The indication is my weak looking fold in the first hand actually gained me about 9 big bets during the next few hands.

It seems to me that you have made an argument for the Sklansky position. First, Ciaffone probably would recommend that you fold these other hands as well. After all in their book, they have you folding over and over again.

Second, if you are familiar with the Sklansky literature, he recommends to be aware when you have made weak looking folds and to call more after that.

Best wishes,
Mason

[J'adoube]

He could be easily raising because he doesn't believe the tighty has an A.

Since a tighty, like the reader of the book in question, might check his AK against
more than 2 players on the flop, the player in the blind might be quick to put him on
an overpair.

So when the A turns the tighty (if he actually had a pair on the flop)
is likely beat by any A and will now throw many hands away.

[David Sklansky]

The other guy could easily have just an ace. Even if he will only occasionally raise when he does, folding AK is a terrible play. Ciaffone was evidenly so intent on making the point that mediocre players don't raise bluff, that he overlooked this possibility and thus picked a terrible example to make that point. What makes that error more egregious than normal, is that he looked at this play carefully before reinserting it into his second edition.

[Howard Burroughs]

This is great news for me. Seeing how just this past Wednesday night my wife & I are in the Orleans coffee shop waiting for our chinese food to arrive, reading our his & her's copy of Card Player when my wife goes ballistic. "Did you see Ciaffone's column yet!?"

"No"


She reads it to me and after we both say "No Way!" upon reading his strategy recommendations (the first words out of my wife's mouth after reading Ciaffone's turn fold advice - "lots of people raise with an ace here" (the turn).

I said, "Hell yes But, I wonder what Sklansky thinks?"


Thanks to the wonders of the world wide web & 2+2 dot com; we now know.

Thanks!

Howard

[Lunamondo]

High limit vs. Medium limit.
Calling more after showing weak-tight symptoms should not be made an automatic play, especially when it's not a high limit game where most player should be considered aggressive and overaggressive, and tricky.
To me C&B's main formula seem to be to call turn raises more or less liberally when it's a heads up turn; good top pair, overpair, and that is for medium limit (and/or kind of shorthanded - like high limit - play) vs. solid (typical) opponents.

[J_V]

I disagree that Piers' comments reflect Mr. Sklansky's point of view in this post. They may support other things he has said, but Mr. Piers' brings up a new and relatively uncovered issue in his post, essentially suggesting player play more deceptively against you is not always a bad thing as is often implied.

[Lunamondo]

This supersmart player doesn't raise on the flop with TT (and A9s, AXs, but he is too smart to cold call with that hand) because he puts his opponent to a (higher) pocket pair (or takes the money from the overcards, and a smaller pocket pair, as a compensation to when he loses to a higher pocket pair). He just calls to draw to a bluff-ace or a set on the turn, and for some chance that his hand is the best. A typical middle limit player.

[BruceZ]

How could he have an ace? Did you overlook the fact that he called a preflop raise? With an ace I would expect a decent player to fold or re-raise. I think your same logic applies to the case that he holds TT or JJ, and these are much more likely than an ace or even a set when you consider the number of ways to make these hands and his prelop action.

[J.R.]

How could he have an ace? Did you overlook the fact that he called a preflop raise?

Hero raised preflop and got three calls, I could easily see a decent suited ace calling after a raise and coldcaller or two in a 10-20 game.

With an ace I would expect a decent player to fold or re-raise.

It was never specified that your opponent was "decent", and this is a 10-20 game, so the relative skill level of your opponents could vary greatly.

[David Sklansky]

I hope everyone realizes that the order 973 followed by ace is what makes the fold terrible. Had the ace appeared on the flop, my disagreement with Ciaffone would be much diminished. See why?

[David Sklansky]

The argument that he wouldn't play most aces this way is right but irrelevant. The fold was close even if it was certain AK was up against aces up or better.

[Ignatius]

Just for those who haven't read the article, the action goes like that:
.
10-20 HE. You raise preflop with AhKc. 4 ppl. see the flop of 9c7d3s. You bet and get a single caller. Turn is the As, you bet and get raised.
.
I no expert or anything, but even thinking about folding in this spot seems outragous. There is $175 in the pot and the other guy could easily be in there with a lesser ace, semi-bluffing with T8 or a flush draw he just picked up, or may even be on a cold bluff representing an ace (after all, you play is completely consistent with an overpair TT-KK). If you muck here, you might as well have checked the flop as you cannot resonably expect a single small bet to take down a raised pot against 3 opponents.
.
Mucking here is hands down the most stupid poker advice I've ever read. I really have no idea how someone like Bob Ciaffone can make such an obvious mistake.

[BruceZ]

The argument that he wouldn't play most aces this way is right but irrelevant.

I was responding specifically to this:

The other guy could easily have just an ace.

I don't think it's that easy against most players. AQs and AJs may be possible; we aren't told if there were other cold callers ahead of him. I already mentioned AK trying to win the whole pot. I don't think these hands are as easy as TT or JJ. Barring these hands, I agree the fold is still wrong for completely different reasons. I really just wanted at least as much credit for my original answer as you gave this guy. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif