Flopped bottom set on single-tone board

[Ulysses]

2 or 3 limpers. CO raises. FWIW, he raised the previous hand w/ AA and lost. I don't know this guy well, but in general he seems to be a pretty solid player. I'm in the BB w/ 88 and call. The limpers do as well. Something like 5-way action.

Flop A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I bet. 1 caller. CO raises. I 3-bet. Caller folds. CO 4-bets. I 5-bet. He calls. Anyone slow down earlier?

Turn A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif (A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif)

I bet. He calls.

River 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif (A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif)

Which of the following options is best?

Bet
Check (intending to check-raise)
Check (intending to check-call)

How about the flop/turn play? If he had raised the turn, 3-bet or call him down?

[Ed Miller]

Man... I think you definitely have to be worried about AK or KK here. I think a flush is unlikely (but obviously possible) given his preflop raise. When he 4-bets you on this flop, it's hard to put him on a hand like AQ. I suppose he could have that with the Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif.

I would not checkraise the river. I just don't think you are ahead of hands he would bet on the river often enough. You should bet if you think AQ or something like Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif are likely hands and if you think he won't raise you with KK. If you check-call, the river is clearly -EV for you because he won't often bet with hands you can beat. All-in-all, I would probably bet and suck it up and call a raise.

[Ulysses]

You should bet if you think AQ or something like Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif are likely hands and if you think he won't raise you with KK

Those are possible hands. I wouldn't go so far as likely. I don't really know this player, so mostly I just need to go with the action. Based on that you don't seem to think they are all that likely... I'm sure he'll raise w/ KK.

If you check-call, the river is clearly -EV for you because he won't often bet with hands you can beat. All-in-all, I would probably bet and suck it up and call a raise.

OK, but given the percentage of times he's going to have AA/AK/KK here given this action, do you think betting is also -EV? Maybe it's just a question of which one is less -EV. Oh yeah, I agree w/ you that check-raising is a bad idea here.

[elysium]

bet

[SoBeDude]

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

If he's sitting on a monster boat or quads, he'd probably put you on the flush and raise you 'till he can't pick up his arms anymore.

Given that he just called, I'm having a hard time putting him on those hands. Maybe AQ or KQ, JJ or a small flush.

But given that, I still think you should check the river.

-Scott

[Ed Miller]

I think it's almost certainly a question of which one is less -EV. I dunno, it's a tough situation. Maybe check-calling is the lesser of two evils. Your real mistake in this hand was failing to catch the case 8. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Ed Miller]

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

Slowplay. His opponent has to put Ulysses on a flush as his most likely hand given the fact that he was in the blind and that he got in the last bet on the flop. If his opponent turned a monster, last thing he wants to do is help Ulysses make a good fold of his flush on 4th street while drawing dead. He would ideally want Ulysses to pay him off for two bets on the river.

[SoBeDude]

wow elysium. you're posts are really getting shorter!

but you forgot to add the "Do you see why?" question.

[SoBeDude]

I see your point.

But it has been my experience that people will call the raise more often on the turn than the river, especially when they've been the aggressor. I think the reason for this is even if they suddenly think they're behind, there is a card to come so they think they can improve to beat you.

So if they call your turn raise, then catch a good card on the river, they'll bet and/or raise you and thus you make more money. But if they call your turn raise and don't make it on the river, they'll check-fold.

If you only call the turn and they don't make it on the river, they check-fold and you miss a bet.

Slowplaying here seems to be a mistake to me. too much of a chance to miss a bet.

-Scott

[Ulysses]

If he had AK, KK or AA, he has a monster. Why wouldn't he raise you on the turn?

This guy knows I'm a decent player. He also probably puts me on a flopped flush.

Now, let's assume he has one of those monsters and I have a flush. If he raises, best case I'll call his raise and check-call the river - he makes 3 bets. However, after all that action on the flop, I may well fold a flush to a raise and he's left with one bet. If he just calls, he'll make at least one more bet from me on the river, and possibly two if I bet and call his raise. If he has a hand like that, I think calling the turn is better than raising.

Maybe AQ or KQ, JJ or a small flush.

AQ - maybe, especially w/ Qd. KQ - no way we go 5 bets on the flop. JJ - if you think he could go 5 bets on the flop w/ JJ, I don't see how you can put him on any hands. Small flush - he may have raised w/ something like 89d, but I think big flush is much more likely than small flush.

[Ulysses]

But it has been my experience that people will call the raise more often on the turn than the river, especially when they've been the aggressor. I think the reason for this is even if they suddenly think they're behind, there is a card to come so they think they can improve to beat you.

After all that action on the flop, what drawing hands do you think he could put me on that will call a turn raise but check-fold the river after he just calls the turn?

[Ulysses]

Which of the following options is best? asked Ulysses.

All-in-all, I would probably bet and suck it up and call a raise. replied majorkong.

Well, I bet. He raised. I sucked it up and called the raise. He showed me KK.

I think my river bet was wrong, but maybe I'm just being results-oriented.

[Lee Jones]

Bet the river and call a raise. I don't think you want to put in three bets. But I'm always a little terrified when I have a full house that involves the aces being paired over me.

On a protocol matter, I don't think the dealer was supposed to let you go five bets on the flop since a third person started in on it with you. But whatever, I don't think I'd put in the 5th bet anyway. He's allowed to have a flush.

Regards, Lee

[Ulysses]

On a protocol matter, I don't think the dealer was supposed to let you go five bets on the flop since a third person started in on it with you.
This was at Artichoke Joe's. Cap there is 5 bets anyway. The heads-up rule there is that as long as it gets heads up before anyone puts in a 5th bet, there is no cap. So, in this situation, since the 3rd player folded to the 3-bet, no limit on the flop. However, had he called the 3-bet and then folded to a 5-bet, the flop would have been capped at 5 bets.

[34TheTruth34]

I bet the river because I'd be more pissed if he checked behind and showed A /forums/images/icons/club.gif Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif then if he raised, I called and he showed KK. I would definitely call the river, but never reraise. No free showdowns!