$109s - Push or Fold?

[Unarmed]

My bubble and ITM play is the weakest part of my game, so I'm going to post a couple hands over the next little while to make sure I'm not leaking. Appreciate any help! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Medium stacks are tight, blinds just went up.
My image isn't crap (yet) /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Just 4 handed in the last 2 orbits, big stack min-raised his last button. Prior to that he wasn't overly aggro. Definitely knows what he's doing, and appears to be solid. (possible 2+2)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t910)
BB (t2275)
UTG (t2320)
Button (t4495)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>

[tigerite]

Hero pushes. I don't hate a stop and go but BB is going to come along for the ride 90% of the time.

[axeshigh]

You need to double up really soon if you want to stay in the game, so you have to push this. Also, I'm curious why you aren't giving ring NL a try if you feel the bubble is your weakness.

It's close. Pushing and folding are both okay

[freemoney]

while there is more money to be made in NL ring at the higher ends, i def think at the 109s level there is more money to be made with SnGs then corresponding level of NL play, the biggest problem is the ceiling is alot higher in nl ring then sngs.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
while there is more money to be made in NL ring at the higher ends, i def think at the 109s level there is more money to be made with SnGs then corresponding level of NL play, the biggest problem is the ceiling is alot higher in nl ring then sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. I play a ton of NL live, and will eventually transition my online game over as well. For now, SNGs are the most profitable route for me. Also, when I say bubble play is a weakness for me, I mean relatively speaking. My bubble play doesn't suck or anything. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[tigerite]

There's one issue I have with the stop and go here - BB will have to call only 300 into a pot of 1200 - he's going to call witha huge range as it doesn't impact his stack, therefore, you have to stop and go against two opponents for very few chips with a big pot in the middle. This isn't good with A5s.

[citanul]

citanul attempts to be a little less retarded:

I think you should fold and push next hand. Your folding equity preflop is 0, a call preflop will give irresistable odds to the bb, and your hand isn't THAT far ahead of a random hand, if you put the big stack on a random hand. Meanwhile you should have siginificant folding equity with a random hand next hand.

citanul

[inyaface]

I think that the distribution of chips makes this a push. Since your so short and since none of the other stacks are close to busting I think you might need to take a chance with this when your usually slightly ahead. The raise to 500 from the button is almost like I want to take the pot uncontested because I have a crappy ace or kj,k10 even q10 or somehting like that. Really its a huge range. You just have to hope the crappy ace isnt A8 or 9, or hope you see some clubs up there. But seriously even if you fold and push SB (assuming its folded to you which isn't guarenteed) and you take down the pot uncontested your only going to have 910 chips again which is super short and your going to need to steal uncontested or pick up a decent hand to try and double or thrid option push trash get called and try to lukbox it. Sure you don't have any FE but I think this is a great chance to gambool and try to double up with what will usually be the best hand.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
citanul attempts to be a little less retarded:

I think you should fold and push next hand. Your folding equity preflop is 0, a call preflop will give irresistable odds to the bb, and your hand isn't THAT far ahead of a random hand, if you put the big stack on a random hand. Meanwhile you should have siginificant folding equity with a random hand next hand.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I would do exactly what he said ^^^^.

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]
citanul attempts to be a little less retarded:

I think you should fold and push next hand. Your folding equity preflop is 0, a call preflop will give irresistable odds to the bb, and your hand isn't THAT far ahead of a random hand, if you put the big stack on a random hand. Meanwhile you should have siginificant folding equity with a random hand next hand.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

beat me to it, though given chip stacks, you need a double, and A7s isn't a horrible hand to do it with. Push or fold is ok to me, but I like to have PF FE, so I would probably fold and push next hand.

Also, I think it's worth mentioning...if you're gonna get lucky and double off of someone, you'd like to do it against one of the shorter stacks so that you're no longer the low stack.

[bennies]

I have thought a bit about this. To me it makes no sense (ever?) - to make a stop n go with A high.

If villain hits the flop you'll be allin anyway (he'll always call the push) so you might as well have pushed preflop

If villain doesn't hit the flop you wouldn't really mind if he stuck around since you are a big favourite with the A.

(by the way I agree with previous posters that it is not an option here because we have to little FE.)

[citanul]

a) you need to rethink your reasoning for why you want to stop and go ever so you know why stop and going is reasonable with A high hands.
b) i don't think other people's arguments for not stop and going had anything to do with lack of folding equity. it is more about the fact that you are likely to wind up with a 3 handed flop, which is bad for stop and going.

citanul

[bennies]

a) give me a hint please!?

[bennies]

I'm guessing it's a u-don't-want-to-bust-on-the-bubble-CEV-is-not-the-same-as-$EV-kindathing....

[citanul]

yes. that's basically it. you'd rather have that shot to win a pot that's 500 chips less than full double up without having to run it out. and that's because though +cEV you want to minimize your chances of busting more than you want to maximize your chance of winning those last 500 chips.

citanul

[bennies]

thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Medium stacks are tight, blinds just went up.
My image isn't crap (yet)
Just 4 handed in the last 2 orbits, big stack min-raised his last button. Prior to that he wasn't overly aggro. Definitely knows what he's doing, and appears to be solid. (possible 2+2)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t910)
BB (t2275)
UTG (t2320)
Button (t4495)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A7s
1 fold, Button raises to t500

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the first things you have to ask yourself is, "what range of hands is the button raising with, and how often does A7s win against it?" Well, it's the 3rd time in a row the button/big stack has raised in this position (upped it to 2 1/2 times the BB, but that shouldn't scare you as the blinds just went up/it's about the same amount - doesn't seem to indicate a stronger hand). Is he raising any two? Top 1/2? Seems like at least the latter. Your A7s wins about 56% of the time there. Against a random hand 61% of the time. You're getting 3:2 on your last 810 chips here, it's a highly +CEV play to go to war. What happens if you fold?

Well, you're down to 810, you have to push at least one of the next two hands, you have FE but not a whole bunch, it's pretty obvious to the two blinds (who want to knock you out and get in the $$) that you may be stealing with crap, even if you're able to steal, you're going to have to keep pushing with semi-crap and decent-not-great FE to keep the blinds from eating you up, etc., etc. Chances are you're going to have to win a showdown (if the blinds have been tight through the 50/100 level, it may or may not mean that they're capable of opening up their calling range against a suspected crap-pusher) in the near future to make it into the top-3 - probably a showdown that, on average, you're an underdog.

I think the only thing working against going to war with A7s is that you'd much rather battle one of the two shorter stacks (assuming same hand range as we're putting the big stack button on), b/c then you get the added benefit of not only getting to 2,000 chips, but you take a big chunk out of one of those two and make them a very short stack. Taking on the big stack and winning, no one gets crippled that hand. Still, I'd go to war every time here knowing the button is likely to have a wide range of hands (and knowing that, the vast majority of the time, I'm the first one who's going to have to make a stand).

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t500

[/ QUOTE ]

i've watched some $215s where players in the same spot pushed with worse.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t500

[/ QUOTE ]

i've watched some $215s where players in the same spot pushed with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

so?

citanul

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t500

[/ QUOTE ]

i've watched some $215s where players in the same spot pushed with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

so?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

so, i would'nt fault him for pushing, although it's probably close and it's a good chance villian will call [i think].

[TWINUNO]

What happens when you get raised UTG and your on the button? Now your pretty much screwed right?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
citanul attempts to be a little less retarded:

I think you should fold and push next hand. Your folding equity preflop is 0, a call preflop will give irresistable odds to the bb, and your hand isn't THAT far ahead of a random hand, if you put the big stack on a random hand. Meanwhile you should have siginificant folding equity with a random hand next hand.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm.

I lean towards pushing. I think your hand here is good enough to take your race to get back into the thick of things. Even if you steal the blinds once in the next couple of hands, you likely will have to race and it's doubtful any of the other stacks will bust themselves.

Too bad you can't double through a medium stack, that would be much better. However, I think you really need some chips here to put some pressure on the rest of the table.

I push.

Yugoslav