how about some marginal posts? 78o 20/40 online hand

[astroglide]

first round in the game, i know it's generally loose/aggressive and recognize more than a few of the players. the average percentage of the players seeing the flop in the last 20 hands is 46%.

i'm in the bb w/7s8c. there is a cutoff poster. utg+2 openraises, 2 mp calls, poster calls, sb calls, i call.

flop is 7c Kc 6h. sb checks, i check, raiser bets, 1 fold, 1 call, 2 more folds, i call

turn is Ac. i check, raiser bets, other calls, i CALL.

river is 8h, i BET, raiser folds, other calls.

[Buckshot]

I don't think you can call on the flop or the turn, but that's me.

~stephen

[astroglide]

interesting that you don't disgaree preflop, but you do on the flop.

by the time the action gets to me on the turn i have to call $20 with $280 in the pot. this is well above what i need to call with 5 outs (i see the buffer as 'set insurance'). both of my outs are completely clean, since the 7c is on board and the 8c is in my hand. i'm not terribly concerned about a flush at this point given the amount of players that have dropped anyway.

i capitalized the turn and river play because those are the debatable plays for me.

[Ulysses]

well, astro. this is a post that is far from marginal and in fact is quite brilliant. what we have here is what we must refer to as the offsuit connector or offector as we will call it now. but what is it that i see? i see that you recognize the players as loose aggressive.... and what do you think that means? well, let me tell you dude, if we have a table of loose aggressives there is only one way that we can beat them.... and that is to show them the door on a silver platter. you see, the loose aggressive player will try to intimidate you... and when he does that you have but one option. and that is to say, "hey dude, i am here and i raise it up" it does not matter whatever else they do, for now you will have control and at that point the battle is won... but we still have to fight a war and let us know see who comes out ahead in the offector war....

aha, i see that there is a poster. and we must now rememember one thing. you see, astro, when there is posted money, that hand is a bad hand over two-thirds of the time. and thus we must raise two-thirds of the time with any hand, especially the offector. aha, we see that another player has already raised it up. but this is where all of a sudden your brilliant play turns not so brilliant. what did i tell you already? i told you that you must raise it up. the poster and the raiser must have nothing.... how do i know? well, you see, the poster has posted and there is a two-thirds chance that he has no hand. and the loose-aggressive raiser will know this as well and he will try to intimidate you and take over. and this is where you must take out the silver platter, put your offector on it and raise it up. and if he reraises this is the time where you look at him and say raise it up one more time. and if he reraises you must say nice hand and then we may fight another day.

now we see the flop. do you see what has happened here? you do not have a straight or a flush. but you have a pair. and a pair against loose aggressive players is like two pair against the players we like to see who do not have pairs. does that make sense to you astro? i think it does and we all have been there, but why is it that it is so hard to see sometimes? perhaps that is because you are in the heat of battle.

now, you call the flop. this is the brilliant play. at this point you must know that the other players have nothing and you must not scare them off from their hands because they are loose-aggressive and will pay you pay you pay you. and you must take their money and say "you know what? i am buying another silver platter for my fruit"

but there is a turn card as well, isnt there? and that is where the color fades from bright red to something less bright in this hand. now we see that it is the card we are looking for and what can we do except call here? i hope that you looked to see the club in your hand and said to yourself "well, astro, i could raise it up here or i could call or fold, but because of the scenario i must raise it up" but instead you just call? now this is where i start to think you must go back to school. and i mean the poker school, astro. do you not see what is going on here? of course, now i think you know.

now back to the hand and then we have the river card. this is the final card and it is oh so beautiful. why? because now we have created a second pair to go along with our first. and it is at this point that i say, perhaps astro has made a brilliant play here by betting because the loose aggressive will call. of course you did not think that here you could surrender. but i do not mean a real surrender. instead i mean a false surrender where you pick up your weapon, the weapon that i earlier called the silver platter, and checkraise him with your two pair, which is like a guided missile that will explode in the loose aggressive players hand.

but it is ok because sometimes you can use other ways to put fear in him and when he sees that you have bet with not one but two pair i believe that he will now be conquered and from now on there is nothing you can do that will be stopped. and perhaps that is the most brilliant play but perhaps there was a more brilliant one, do you see?

[mike l.]

when my game is on, the turn is where i dump this. the chances im drawing dead are just too strong.

[Ulysses]

I think the turn call is marginal, but OK. B&M, I'd make a gut read on how likely it is that the raiser has aces-up or better and let that push me to one side of the fence.

On the river, I'd go for a checkraise w/ an 8. I'd bet out w/ a 7.

[astroglide]

lolol

elysium is not only a poker laureate, but an accomplished computer cracker! CHANGE YOUR PASSWORDS EVERYONE! HE'S ONTO US!

[Karatitis]

Pre-flop call is fine...and...

I would agree that you're call on the flop is trivial and you might even be leading, but anyhow the pot odds easily warrant a call.

On the turn, I would still call, but figure that if a club or 7 or 8 doesn't drop on the river I would fold to a bet on the river.

Chris X.

[astroglide]

raiser folded, other calls and shows KhJh before folding

i called the turn because of the general loose behavior of the table, with faith and my clean outs and believing i'd be able to show down for only 1 bet even if a flush card came (and probably fold to a bet and a call).

i bet out on the river because of the presence of both the ace and the king. i didn't want it to check through, and i also didn't want to get 3bet by a set after i checkraised and have to pay off. if it was just the ace OR the king out there i would have checkraised.

[cpk]

I count pot-odds of 8.5:1 on the turn vs. 4.75:1 to make two pair or better. You probably will get paid by a bigger hand, so implied odds are bigger. I think this is large enough of an overlay to take the risk you are drawing dead, plus the point about the overall looseness of the table is well taken.

If it was only say, 6:1, I would be more inclined to let it go.

[Buckshot]

I believe the flop call is easy, IMHO. You have 5 outs on the flop.

I think the turn is where you must dump the hand. Now none of your 5 outs might be clean! Do you see? You'd really have to fudge some numbers here and incorporate some fuzzy logic.

But, hey, nice hand sir. Well played.

~stephen

[astroglide]

"I don't think you can call on the flop or the turn"

now the flop call is easy? that was your quote.

mp calling made this call for me. i don't believe for a second that the preflop raiser has a flush, and mp failing to raise shows me that he doesn't have one either. my biggest fear is a set from the raiser, and i can pick that off with a flush. if he bets a flush card on the river and the other guy calls, i can fold.

[M.B.E.]

<font color="purple">I think the turn is where you must dump the hand. Now none of your 5 outs might be clean! Do you see? You'd really have to fudge some numbers here and incorporate some fuzzy logic.</font color>

I don't understand this point. Yes, it's possible astroglide could have been drawing dead on the turn, to a flush or A7 or whatever, but it's not very likely. Chances are that at least two of his outs (the sevens) are "clean", and probably all five.

Note that the bettor on the flop and the turn was the same guy who raised preflop. That means you have no particular reason to put him on clubs for the turned flush. It's much more likely he's betting a king or an ace.

(If the preflop raiser had checked the turn and someone else had bet, then there's a legitimate reason to be worried about a flush.)

I agree with astroglide's play on all streets. I would have played it the same way.

In particular, I always call a raise in the big blind with 87o when it will be a fiveway pot. I know that some good players would usually fold in that spot, but I don't see how that could be correct.

[Buckshot]

Yes, I was mistaken about the flop call, but I'm still going to hold my ground with the turn fold. Since there's nothing clear cut on the turn, which is what makes this a good post, you have to figure from 5 outs to ~3(?).

Either way I think there's a case for the way you played it. I just wouldn't play it, that's all. It's too close for me to make this call and have it be profitable in the long run.

~stephen

[Buckshot]

It's much more likely he's betting a king or an ace.

Or how about AK or KK or AA?

~stephen

[astroglide]

3-5 outs? i have a club. he cannot have the ace or king of clubs. the 6c is the only card he can hit to boat me if he has aa/kk when i still catch a flush.

[DanS]

Good effort, Ulysses, but not quite cryptic enough to leave my head spinning like, uhh, somebody else's posts! /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

Dan

[PokerPrince]

Come on Astro, click that fold button preflop. You should know better.

PokerPrince

[mike l.]

"when there is posted money, that hand is a bad hand over two-thirds of the time."

while 87o is a bad hand exactly three-thirds of the time.

"and checkraise him with your two pair, which is like a guided missile that will explode in the loose aggressive players hand."

if you get to the river, which you shouldnt, this is truly the expert play. good eye ulysses.

[astroglide]

that entire post was a sarcastic mockery of elysium...

[astroglide]

with 11:1?

[Ulysses]

that entire post was a sarcastic mockery of elysium...

It was, of course, and from the title of his response I'm pretty sure that mike l caught that as well. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif However, as I posted in my real response, I was serious about the river checkraise part.

[mike l.]

yeah i know. very funny. that's why i replied that it was a "brilliant" post.

it failed though in this respect: i could understand what you were saying and it was almost eloquent in spots. elysium's posts just sound like someone who doesnt know how to write english well plus doesnt know how to play poker. although i guess that could be said about all of us from time to time.

look.... even the once very hard to read.... understand...mikey... has started to post...inteligible,,..
,, worthwhile posts... so.... lets give elysium some time...and maybe just ignore him till then..

[glen]

"well, let me tell you dude, if we have a table of loose aggressives there is only one way that we can beat them.... and that is to show them the door on a silver platter. you see, the loose aggressive player will try to intimidate you... and when he does that you have but one option. and that is to say, "hey dude, i am here and i raise it up" it does not matter whatever else they do, for now you will have control and at that point the battle is won... but we still have to fight a war and let us know see who comes out ahead in the offector war...."

Ulysses, this post made me laugh out in the presence of my fellow students at the computers. In fact, I can now justify reading the Elysium posts as building up to this post. . .

[mikelow]

I think this is an easy call preflop and on the flop. You are completing the action. On the turn, it's a bit debatable but you can call, but you're in. Nice hand.

[mikelow]

I just hope mike l. didn't ghostwrite this post. I do agree that
the turn call is close, but the lack of raises on the flop and turn suggest the five outs may be cleaner than most people think. A close one IMO--at the table I would shove the eight chips in the pot.

[mikelow]

c'mon now! I've seen your marginal hand posts. I'd say it's a bad hand about 85% of the time.

[mike l.]

"c'mon now!"

now hold on you silly goose. you know very well ive tightened way up. i think i even folded a pocket pair for 3 bets the other day. not sure why anymore, but i did.

anyway im spending time this evening carefully studying elysium's posts and im eager to become a disciple ive decided. if one could somehow condense his words into a real live table image it'd be so intensely confusing opponents would be faltering all over the place. the ftop potential is staggering. cant wait for him to post some hands he's played.

[Ulysses]

So, mike, your "ignore him 'til he starts posting something coherent" plan lasted what, 30 minutes? /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[mikelow]

[mike l.]

"So, mike, your "ignore him 'til he starts posting something coherent" plan lasted what, 30 minutes?"

those were the words or an ignorant unbeliever and i have since repented and seen the light. i sat down and watched the entire 2002 wsop telecast as penance. damn that smarts.

[elysium]

hi astro,
well, whew....astro, 87o, the issue here is the flop bet out. now, with your level of experience astro, you know how to play these.

i'd probably chicken-out here at some point. i don't know where astro. but i'd be considering chickening out....looks like on the turn.

with these type of hands astro, you need to improve. a lot.

[astroglide]

[censored]! i deleted the pre-edit version i got emailed to me...

[cpk]

4.75:1? Ack, I only got 5 outs! Duh!

No overlay, time to fold because I might be drawing dead.

[PokerPrince]

Suit em' you have a case but otherwise it's out of position cheese. 11:1 or not I wouldn't see the flop.

PokerPrince

[astroglide]

even after the fact i would call this preflop every time in every game

[PokerPrince]

Well, to each their own. I've been known to play rather tight in my blinds. Perhaps not so much as Tommy Angelo, but tighter than most. I detest being out of position and will look for any excuse to fold a close hand.

PokerPrince

[M.B.E.]

<font color="purple">3-5 outs? i have a club. he cannot have the ace or king of clubs. the 6c is the only card he can hit to boat me if he has aa/kk when i still catch a flush.</font color>

This point is key to the problem; a lot of posters who responded -- including me I admit -- overlooked its significance.

On the turn astroglide has two opponents. If neither of them has a club greater than the 8, then a club on the river will be an out for astroglide. (With the possible exception of the board-pairing 6/forums/images/icons/club.gif.)

As astroglide points out in the passage quoted above, if the preflop raiser has AA or KK and the other guy has no club (or only a small club), then astroglide has a 19% chance of winning on the turn. The pot odds are absolutely there. But on the other hand if the preflop raiser has AA and the other guy has KJ with the J/forums/images/icons/club.gif then astroglide is drawing dead.

Anyway, AA/KK/AK for the preflop raiser is worst-case scenario. A much-better-case scenario, and still quite plausible, is that the preflop raiser has K/forums/images/icons/heart.gifQ/forums/images/icons/heart.gif and the other guy has K/forums/images/icons/diamond.gifT/forums/images/icons/spade.gif. Now astroglide has 14 outs, or a 2-to-1 chance of winning. In that scenario, folding would be a terrible error for astroglide. Give the other guy K/forums/images/icons/diamond.gifT/forums/images/icons/club.gif and astroglide's outs are reduced to 5. (Remember the other guy posted from the cutoff and then called a raise preflop, so KTo -- or worse -- is plausible.)

This hand is a lot more interesting than I had originally appreciated.

[astroglide]

being out of position with something like AJ bothers me. being out of position with 78 doesn't. if i'm looking to flop a pair with a big pot, 2 pair, trips, a straight draw, or a straight i'm not as concerned about position.

[PokerPrince]

All I'm saying is I want a hand with more ways to win, like if it was suited. You're going almost solely for the straight or some flukey two pair which you got. On this issue they'll be no debate.

PokerPrince