Party PL$200: Flopped bottom set on 7-way flop... scary action

[banditbdl]

Party Poker PL $200 Full-table I've played just over 100 hands with the two relevant players.

First four players limp, a fold, the two relevant players limp in CO-1 and the CO, button and SB fold, and I check in the BB with 55. 7 players to the flop for $14.25.

Flop comes J /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The first 4 limpers check and then things get interesting. CO-1 (17%/3%) bets the pot of $14.25 and is then raised to $57 by the CO (8%/1%). I've played a little over 100 hands with both CO-1 and the CO and both are pretty tight (preflop at least) as the stats I included indicate. Also, neither as really gotten out of line when they are playing a hand.

What do I do now? Easy reraise or do I need to slowdown here?

[xorbie]

Ouch.

[ahnuld]

Esy reraise, infact, just push it in. What kind of tight players would limp in late position with JJ or QQ after alot of limpers. ALmost none, They would have riased preflop. As it is, one probably has QJ while another has a flush draw. This is easy push and if they had QQ JJ they are dumb as hell and youll get their money in the long run. I insta push.

[xorbie]

Against JQ and AT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 55 isn't even looking that good.

[imported_anacardo]

Good enough.

Let's go.

(You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.)

[banditbdl]

[ QUOTE ]
(You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.)

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is Xorbie's scenario isn't the "worst-case" even if you discount my opponents holding JJ or QQ which is probably a decent assumption, but not one I think you can be completely confident of.

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(You have 45% equity in a three-way pot, even in Xorbie's worst-case scenario.)

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is Xorbie's scenario isn't the "worst-case" even if you discount my opponents holding JJ or QQ which is probably a decent assumption, but not one I think you can be completely confident of.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely. A player with a PFR% of 1 is usually NOT going to raise Jacks pre-flop, especially with a bunch of limpers. He's going to play it for set value.

K /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif
QJ.. QJ is DEFINITELY out there. The first bet could be the KT but I'm betting my left nut that the re-raiser to 57$ has QJ. I'm shhhhoving.

Tears

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Good enough.

Let's go.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 43% at best. Less against 9T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Far less against a set. CO has at least 12 outs here, if not JJ. I think this is close.

[banditbdl]

I had ~$250 which was enough to cover both players. CO-1 started the hand with just under $200 and CO started the hand with $130. I thought this might be important to know just because after the CO's raise to $57 on the flop he only had 70-something left and was pretty much guaranteed to call any raise as far as I can tell.

[imported_anacardo]

On review of Villain Two's 1% PFR, my optimism is lessened.

This might be just about breakeven.

[banditbdl]

I raised to $150. (not sure why I didn't raise the max, meh) CO-1 raised all-in for $31 more, CO called, and I called.

Fortunately, I was not against JJ or QQ. However, I was against QJ and K /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif meaning I was actually a dog to win the main pot to the open-ended straight flush draw. Luckily, the turn and river were both beautifully lovely bricks and I took down the pot.

I really did think about this hand as I was playing it as I saw those awful stats for my opponents and figured best case I was against QJ and some sort of strong heart draw. Worst case of course, is one of them was silly enough to limp JJ or QQ.

You guys seem to like a push and I guess its the best option here. Best case I'm against QJ and some sort of Ax heart draw that doesn't have extra straight outs. In this case my equity is actually pretty decent, hopefully it'll be enough to make up for the times I am actually drawing to one out. More likely, though I'm actually in a situation like what happened in the actual hand and I have a little positive EV from the QJ player drawing thin and a variance that is through the roof.

Extra question: If you could call the $57 raise knowing that CO-1 would only call whether he had QJ or the strong draw would you do it in order to push the turn if a brick fell or (gulp) fold if things got ugly.

I'm so good at hand reading. See above =)

[Finite_Risk]

Pretend to be the other players - I'm not laying down the OESFD, but would anyone lay down top 2 pair? With the money flying around he has to think at least 1 set is out there, no?

[theben]

i'd worry most about a limped pair of JJ. i would strongly expect a big draw and probably the top-2 to be more likely. i dont think i would fold here. hitting bottom set on a flop where the top 2 cards yield a likely top-2 pair on cards that usually result in a preflop raise for pockets that would hit an overset is an ideal flop (flops like K Q small, Q J small, etc).

i put the reraiser on a big draw like KT or AT hearts or QJ. the initial bettor could be on a real wide range, but i'd like to think hes betting something decent (QJ, or a draw himself)

[grouchie]

[ QUOTE ]
On review of Villain Two's 1% PFR, my optimism is lessened.

This might be just about breakeven.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I thought about this, the more I decided that with ONLY a little over 100 hands with this particular Villian, you cannot really ascertain weather or not he would raise with Jacks.

1% does seem pretty bad, but i've played lots of tables where after 100 or so hands my PFR was 1-2% because I didn't get any cards worth raising

Of course, since then I've made it a point to raise once in a while even though I may have nothing, and I think that has helped my game tremendously.

Glad to hear the hand worked out for you in the end. Definately a good hand to post, good discussion.