Passing up some +EV plays is correct

Take the following situation...

$20+2 Party SNG

Blinds 150/300

BB has 4000 chips
UTG has 300 chips (Will be all in next hand)
SB has 2000 chips
HERO is SB and has 1700 chips

Preflop you are dealt A10os. UTG folds. SB shows his cards face up (KsQs) and shoves all in. Easy fold?

The call is +EV for that specific hand (slight favorite) and therefore would be an autocall in a cash game. But in a tournament things change.

You will get at LEAST 3rd place 75% of the time assuming you do nothing and SB is forced into 2 coinflip situations.

I am no math expert by any means, but I will take a stab at it here. By calling all of you chips in with a slight favorite (55/45).

There are two outcomes to the allin:

1) You win and double up, criple the other player, and should be able to coast into at least 2nd most of the time.
2) You lose out of the tournament and get nothing.

Situation 1:
If you do double up (55% of the time) you will have about even chips with the other player at heads up, thus you will get first place 27.5% of the time and second 27.5% of the time.

Situation 2:
You get 4th 45% of the time.

100%
27.5% +4buyins +1.1
27.5% +2buyins +0.55
45% -1buyin -0.45

+1.2

Therefore the EV of calling is about 1.2 buyins.

And folding? Whats is the EV of that?

If you fold, there are two outcomes:

1) You fold and 75% of the time you get at least 3rd.
2) You fold and 25% of the time its a coinflip for 4th or 3rd.

75% You make it ITM and chips are ~ 2000 (you) 2000 4000.
I will assume the following:
When you get ITM you will get in third 50% of the time, second 25% of the time and first 25% of the time with these stacks.

First 18.75% +4 buyins +0.75
Second 18.75% +2 buyins +0.375
Third 50% +1 buyin +0.5
Fourth 12.5% -1 buyin -.25

+1.375 buyins

Soooo..

EV of calling - EV of folding
1.2 - 1.375
-0.175 buyin EV by calling vs folding.

Calling is incorrect.

Of course, this is VERY close, and perhaps I am assuming too much. Obviously this is a very simple example, but you get the idea, it can apply to alot of situations you face late game in a SNG.


The whole point of this post is to show those of you who think that +EV moves are always correct (hand specific) that it may sometimes be incorrect to CALL A push late in a tournament with only a slight edge. Many good players already know this, but it was something I had to struggle with alot when I first started and this post might somehow help someone.

Of course if you were the one RAISING and you got CALLED by someone else holding KQs, then so be it. Calling with a slight edge is different entirely.

Cheers

[capone0]

How do you shove in your cards face up on Party?

[eastbay]

chip EV? You must be new around here. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Generally EV talk in the SnG forum means $EV.

eastbay

[durron597]

Wow, this idea has never come up on these boards before, something to think about!

[PrayingMantis]

This is certainly a new and revolutionary concept, and I think it will forever change the way we are thinking about SNGs.

It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe. I had to kind of laugh at this. This guy really did get torn a new one for what I'm sure he thought was an interesting and fresh concept.

On the other hand, even a cursory search could probably have netted him a few different threads that have discussed this before (although I'll be the first to admit that I am completely inept when it comes to using the search feature on this forum).

On the other hand, this thread is a lot better than another "Was I right to lay down KK here?" thread.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? I never really understand this attitude. If you post, get ready to read what people think about what you're saying. Nothing wrong with that... If you're afraid to post, because you're worried about what people might say, well, I guess that's not the best place for you.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of my best learning experiences early on came from making brash and stupid posts and getting bitchslapped around by the regulars. I think you learn more when you're not afraid to look silly.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? I never really understand this attitude. If you post, get ready to read what people think about what you're saying. Nothing wrong with that... If you're afraid to post, because you're worried about what people might say, well, I guess that's not the best place for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any comments regarding how a hand was played or our play in general is one thing that we should all be open to or else we are just wasting our time on this forum, but getting ripped by more experienced players because they have been there and done that seems less than appropriate.

B.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's no wonder some newbies are afraid to post.

B.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of my best learning experiences early on came from making brash and stupid posts and getting bitchslapped around by the regulars. I think you learn more when you're not afraid to look silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Than I guess this is mine. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

B.

[spentrent]

Nah, yours will be when you defiantly make a case for raising 56o in EP then proceed to defend your case for min-betting into 3 villains, then min-reraising after a raise behind... having paired your 5 on the two-tone flop.

I have a post like this where I decided that somehow I was representing a flush draw, so that if the turn put a three-flush on the board, I could then take down the pot with a big bet.

Or something like that.

It's also good to make a post like "YOU SUCKERS PLAY TOO TIGHT!"

[samr]

You have a decent number of posts. You should know better.

This play is +chipEV, but -$EV, which is what we usually refer to by EV.

[the_joker]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole point of this post is to show those of you who think that +EV moves are always correct (hand specific) that it may sometimes be incorrect to CALL A push late in a tournament with only a slight edge. Many good players already know this, but it was something I had to struggle with alot when I first started and this post might somehow help someone.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP already seems to know this. I think the post was directed at beginners who may not know this. A better title for the post would be "Passing up +chipEV for $EV is correct".

[The Don]

Your example is pretty clear cut. I think a better post that would help a lot of players would be if it was 4 handed in level 6 and everyone has relatively equal stacks. A lot of people get over aggressive in these situations when it is definitely better to pick your spots.

My post was not meant to change the way we think about SNGs.

It was simply to point out to beginners some new ideas they may not have thought about.

Sorry, but we all wern't here to see EVERY post on the board.

P.S. The search feature licks. Seriously.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
My post was not meant to change the way we think about SNGs.

It was simply to point out to beginners some new ideas they may not have thought about.

Sorry, but we all wern't here to see EVERY post on the board.

P.S. The search feature licks. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but I think you can simply make sure people realize it's for beginners, by the title or something. Also, if your intention is to make posts for beginners, it's a bit problematic since it looks like you're simply not aware of the use of $EV as opposed to CEV, that is often the common way to speak about such situations here, that's why your title is confused in a way.

Anyway, The idea you present here is so basic and fundamental to understanding tournament poker, especially SNGs, that you can't be really surprised by the replies.

Another thing is that the search feature is actually a great way to learn, if you use it systematically. Of course there are cases it won't help you much, especially if you don't know what you're looking for.

[axeshigh]

[ QUOTE ]

P.S. The search feature licks. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

The search feature is THE [censored]. Type +"passing up" +EV in the search, OTT, 1 year, and you'll find out everything you need to know that this post is redundant. I tried putting a link up but the UBB code isn't working for some reason, so you'll have to try it yourself and (hopefully) find out the awesomeness of the search feature for people looking out to not making asses out of themselves.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

P.S. The search feature licks. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

The search feature is THE [censored]. Type +"passing up" +EV in the search, OTT, 1 year, and you'll find out everything you need to know that this post is redundant. I tried putting a link up but the UBB code isn't working for some reason, so you'll have to try it yourself and (hopefully) find out the awesomeness of the search feature for people looking out to not making asses out of themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does anyone post?

Why don't we all just search so we don't have to worry about what others think of our posts?

Pffffft. Get a life. I'll make an ass of myself all I want.

In the history of this forum, what HASNT been posted? I am not just talking about this thread. I see these replys all the time from the regulars here that I don't think want to let anyone else take part in discussions. There is a group of 10-20 people who post all the time, and discourage posts or discussions that anyone else starts. Respect possibly? I dont know what it is but some of you feel superior to beginners. Dont get me wrong, I like alot fo you, but some of you just drive me insane.

I even see the very moderator of this board discourage discussions between beginners and they are told off, made look stupid, and flamed by everyone else in return.

so, as I said, lets just not post ever again. It's all been posted before...

[axeshigh]

[ QUOTE ]
lets just not post ever again.

[/ QUOTE ] Exactly.

[lastchance]

You know, despite our sarcasm, this is the #1 thing you need to learn in playing 1TT's.

[ilya]

So I set this up in SGNPT just to see how absurdly -$EV calling would be (-4% against KQs), and I stumbled across an interesting discovery:

When you specify a range of "ATo" for the SB, calling costs 6.4%!! WOW. That 2% chance of losing costs THAT much.