$1/2 NL 6max - Flopped set, value bet the river?

[vanHelsing]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($76.80)
Button ($287.12)
SB ($201.70)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($208.85)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($243.85)</font>
MP ($68)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, BB calls $15.

Turn: ($47) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30.

River: ($107) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

Opponent is 25/3/1.5
What's your action and plan now?

I would either check, or bet $50 and fold to a raise

Without a read, I check it

[silvershade]

Personally I'd check, if he's got nothing I dont see him calling unless he's got the stones to come over the top putting you to a hard decision. If he hit the straight your bet will just cost you money. Of course he probably just has an A or Q, even so I think a check is right here.

[thatpfunk]

Bet $30.

[vanHelsing]

and fold to a raise?

[AllIn3High]

Bet whatever you think KQ/QJ will call. Only the 87 OESD got there, I think he's at least as likely to have had JT if he was on a draw. You're loosing a lot of value if you check here every time.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
and fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is hard to say without being at the table. I definetly call a minraise, everything else becomes tough because the small river bet (in my experience) has definetly produced bluffs/bad raises... I think if you don't feel comfortable calling a decent raise then a check is okay, but inthe long run the small bet pays off (simply because missed draws w/a pair or similar love calling this).

[Raven]

I bet 80 $ and call a raise. I think that AQ is likely here. He could even have a "tricky" 66, or QTd. A straight is really not bothering me because of the flop. I just hope he have mad some kind of two pair and pay me with it. If he have a busted draw he will fold anyway.

Bet 20. BTW, its not THAT bad, but why raise 8x bb with 99 UTG? what if you get reraised?

[Allinlife]

bet 50~60 and fold to a reraise. trust me..very few people are capable of bluff check-raises. checking here makes money on the table cry, too many worse hands will call your bet.

the pfr is nice too. 3bb raises don't cut it UTG in some games. since your goal of pfr should beo to isolate the pot to you and another player, adjust your pfr's accordingly depending on table texture/ your position/ limpers.

[djoyce003]

value bet and folding to a raise is criminal here IMO. Bet and pray he raises.

[fuzzbox]

Bet, maybe he hit two pair with his A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, that would be great /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
bet 50~60 and fold to a reraise. trust me..very few people are capable of bluff check-raises. checking here makes money on the table cry, too many worse hands will call your bet.

the pfr is nice too. 3bb raises don't cut it UTG in some games. since your goal of pfr should beo to isolate the pot to you and another player, adjust your pfr's accordingly depending on table texture/ your position/ limpers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but I can see many Villains check-raising with AQ or AT. They don't know you have a set - 'bluff check-raising' can me they hit two-pair on the river, or was trying to 'slow-play' top two.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet 20. BTW, its not THAT bad, but why raise 8x bb with 99 UTG? what if you get reraised?

[/ QUOTE ]

$8 is 4xBB at NL 1/2

[vanHelsing]

I pushed, is that terrible?

[unlucky513]

pushing is bad. he's played the hand very passively. what hand are you hoping to get a call from? i can't put villain on 2pair with the line he took, the diamonds didn't get there, the T on the river just made 78/gut shots.

i bet ~$50 on the river.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Push and hope he has top two.

Edit: I like it. If he checked a better hand to me on the river, he gets my money here. No obvious draws hits, there are plenty of worse hands that he can call with (mostly aces up, but could be other two pairs hands as well).

[unlucky513]

[ QUOTE ]
Push and hope he has top two.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? what indication has villain given that he's got top 2?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push and hope he has top two.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? what indication has villain given that he's got top 2?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is how a lot of people will play top two. They are WA/WB the entire time. So they check/call the whole way knowing that they won't get a call from a worse hand but hoping that you'll be it for them. Or will fail to bet a better hand. It's a good line for top two, in fact.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
the T on the river just made 78/gut shots.


[/ QUOTE ]
He has a VPIP of ~25%
I don't think it's too likely he wants to play an 87 (suited or not) from BB to an UTG raise. But I might be wrong.

[unlucky513]

did he call your push?

[SideCash]

I think you have to call a raise if you going to make such a small bet on river. I'd think a $45-$65 bet would be good here and you could fold to a push but call any other raise after making a bet like that. It's also not too big that he could call with a hand like aq or kk.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($76.80)
Button ($287.12)
SB ($201.70)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($208.85)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($243.85)</font>
MP ($68)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, BB calls $15.

Turn: ($47) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30.

River: ($107) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

Opponent is 25/3/1.5
What's your action and plan now?

[/ QUOTE ]

I pushed, got called and lost to K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I put him on either a FD, where it usually won't matter much what I do, or AQ/66. QQ/AK I am not sure if I would hear PF from this kind of passive player, so prolly candidates as well.
At PP NL200 (in comparison to the lower limits I've played before), people love to call big river bets/overbets with marginal hands. They often suspect bluffs. I learned it the hard way, with a couple of my bigger bluffs getting caught by minimal holdings like 1 pair hands.

Like I said before, 87 seemed unlikely (while not impossible) due to PF action and stats.

With AQ, 66 and to a lower degree AK as candidates for my push to work, I thought it was worth the try.

As it worked out I ran into KdJd, which I must admit, didn't even have on the list in the heat of the battle. But even if I had, it's just one hand compared to 9xAQ, 12xAK and 3x66.

This time I puked, but in general I think, moves like this are +ev in this game.

Another consideration was with these stacks left, I would have a hard time laying down the hand to a C-raise/push. Especially as I am not a fan of tiny river value bets. They don't work good in conjunction with my (rare) river bluffs.

Thanks for all the oppinions and TWP, nice to have you with me this time /images/graemlins/wink.gif .

Tough break - I think the best responses were to bet $50 and see if he raises. Betting $30 sucks - tough players will come over the top of that too often.

Tears

[banditbdl]

I'd check, your opponent's play is just screaming draw and if I bet $50 and get checkraised all-in I'm gonna throw up in my mouth.

[elus2]

if villain check-raises small bets frequently on the river then betting smallish may be a good way of extracting more value from our hand. unfortunately, he'll need to do this more than 75% i'd say to make up for the value we miss by just pushing as twp suggested. i don't understand why calling a river checkraise here would make a lot of the posters cringe when we have a strong hand relative to villain's range of holdings.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
your opponent's play is just screaming draw

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, this is information I didn't provide on my OP (while I should have).
His AF F/T/R is 0.4/0.8/3.5 This looks like a habitual slowplayer and he is very likely to have played the candidates mentioned in this manner.