Non Poker Odds Question

[antifish225]

Going to Vegas next week - will be playing allot of poker, however I am sure we will end up at some table games as well, couple quick questions for you odds experts out there:
What table game has the most favorable player odds, is it:
- Craps betting pass line and come line with full odds, or
- Black Jack assuming 'perfect' strategy (but not counting anything except the number of drinks you consume)
- Are those BJ 'variation' games better or worse odds (like Spanish 21, 1 deck, etc) than standrad 6 deck blackjack

Just trying to limit the damage I do whne not playing poker at the Bellagio - thanks!

[LetYouDown]

If I remember right, Pass Line/Come Bet have the same odds, with a 1.41% house edge. The Don't Pass line/Don't Come Bet have the same odds and have a very slightly lower house edge, like 1.40%. So, in reality, it's better to bet the Don't Pass line.

I believe that if you play optimal, non-counting, black jack you can lower the house edge to something like ~.4%

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
If I remember right, Pass Line/Come Bet have the same odds, with a 1.41% house edge. The Don't Pass line/Don't Come Bet have the same odds and have a very slightly lower house edge, like 1.40%. So, in reality, it's better to bet the Don't Pass line.

I believe that if you play optimal, non-counting, black jack you can lower the house edge to something like ~.4%

[/ QUOTE ]

the pass line and come bets are exactly the same, you're right about that. the edge you quote looks right also.

however OP was also talking about taking full odds on the pass/come - those bets pay true odds with no house edge. So if you're playing full odds, the house edge will be less than 1.41%, depending on the casino rules. I have seen everything from 2x-100x allowed.

almost every non-standard blackjack game or side bet is almost always worse than standard blackjack.

[antifish225]

Thanks - wish me luck (I know it is all EV- but looking for my best bad investment)......

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Going to Vegas next week - will be playing allot of poker, however I am sure we will end up at some table games as well, couple quick questions for you odds experts out there:
What table game has the most favorable player odds, is it:
- Craps betting pass line and come line with full odds, or
- Black Jack assuming 'perfect' strategy (but not counting anything except the number of drinks you consume)
- Are those BJ 'variation' games better or worse odds (like Spanish 21, 1 deck, etc) than standrad 6 deck blackjack

Just trying to limit the damage I do whne not playing poker at the Bellagio - thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

For BJ, you should play as few decks as possible as long as the BJ pays 3:2 and not 6:5 as many are now doing. The 6:5 payoff costs you a whopping 1.4%. A single deck game can be almost even-money, but a 6-deck costs you 0.5% over single deck, and double-deck costs you 0.3%. If the dealer hits soft 17, that costs you 0.2%, and if you can only double on 10 or 11, that also costs you 0.2%. If you can double after splitting, that will GAIN you about 0.1%. Here is a summary of the house edge with just these rule variations:

single deck: -0.1% to 0.4% (negative 0.1% means player advantage)
double deck: 0.2% to 0.7%
6-deck: 0.4% to 0.9%

The variation games like Spanish 21 and side bets are usually worse than regular BJ, but it depends on the rules and what else is being offered.

Craps has a 1.4% house edge without taking odds if you only play pass/don't pass and come/don't come. It is slightly advantageous to bet don't pass and don't come, but the difference is minuscule. To compute the edge with Nx odds, use this formula:

house edge = 1.4%/(1 + 2/3 * N)

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
<font color="red">--------------------6-deck (0.9%)</font>
1X: 0.8%
<font color="green">--------------------double deck (0.7%)</font>
2x: 0.6%
<font color="blue"> ,--------single deck (0.4%)</font>
4x: 0.4%<font color="red">--------6 deck (0.4%)</font>

8x: 0.2%<font color="green">--------double deck (0.2%)</font>


100x: 0.02%
<font color="blue">---------------------single deck (-0.1%)</font>

</pre><hr />

The diagram above shows the ranges of where the BJ games rate in relation to the craps games. So you can see that single deck BJ would be at least as good as 4X craps if not better. Double-deck BJ would be better than 1X craps, and possibly as good as 8X craps. 6-deck BJ is no better than 4X craps, and could be worse than 1X craps. This all assumes that there are not any other rules variations that I haven't mentioned, but I've included the common ones.

[BruceZ]

I made a correction to the formula for craps odds. The 6/11 was changed to 2/3 since this is how often a right bettor will have an opportunity to make a free odds bet. This made a slight change to the numbers.

[BruceZ]

The baseline 0.0% BJ game does not allow doubling after splitting, so I shifted everything up by 0.1%. This changes the diagram and the wording of the conclusions, though I think they are much clearer now.

[AaronBrown]

Remember that your expected loss is the product of three things: number of bets, size of bets and house edge. Craps is the fastest game, especially if you bet every roll. So with the same bet sizes, you could lose more in craps, even if the odds are more favorable to you.

You have to figure out expected loss per hour of fun. If you can enjoy a $5 bet on a number at roulette as much as playing blackjack for $25 a hand, you might find the roulette is cheaper despite the difference in house edge. The fewer number of higher odds bets also means you have more chance of coming out ahead.

Casinos do a pretty good job of leveling their profits at different tables. Fast games tend to give the players good odds, slow ones don't. So to a first approximation, the house edge doesn't matter. This only applies to table games, slot machines are fast and bad odds; other low roller games are bad as well.

The nice thing about blackjack is the house calibrates it for the average player. If you know the strategy, especially if you count (not to vary your bet but to make correct decisions), you can be a high roller with little or no expected loss. If you know how to maximize your comps, you can come out ahead.

[BruceZ]

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Remember that your expected loss is the product of three things: number of bets, size of bets and house edge.

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So to a first approximation, the house edge doesn't matter.

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I agree that we must consider the total amount of money that we will bet on each game; however, of the 3 factors that you mention, the only one that we cannot control is the house edge. We can bet the same amount in craps as we would in any blackjack game simply by making smaller bets, or by not betting every roll, or simply by not playing as long. So if we have a certain amount of money to bet, and we wish to determine which game we should play, we should compare the games assuming an equal amount of money bet on each, which means comparing them on the basis of their house edge.

[AaronBrown]

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we should compare the games assuming an equal amount of money bet on each, which means comparing them on the basis of their house edge.

[/ QUOTE ]
This goes beyond probability into taste, but I disagree. I would hold the amount of fun (or whatever other reason you play casino games) constant. I happen to like blackjack, because I enjoy the small mental effort required to break even, and I don't like feeling that I'm paying an edge. In fact, I like to think I profit, due to the comps. I'd go crazy trying to get excited about a pure random event, like a roulette wheel or craps die. Another game I like is video Poker, with a good machine you can also get a slight edge if you pay attention.

But other people prefer not to make decisions. The nice thing about roulette is you can never make a mistake. You can play as well drunk as sober, you can bet your mood without loss of value, you can play your wife's birthday and get husband-points. I can't see ever playing red/black, but for a lot of people a relatively small bet on a single number gives more excitment per house edge than a much larger bet at craps or blackjack. Plus the slower pace means you make fewer bets.

Then there are others who like to throw the dice, and play with a table (almost) all pulling the same way. You can actually make friends at the craps table, something that's rare at roulette and blackjack.

My advice would be to pick which game you like to play the most, then adjust the stake to the amount you're willing to pay for your entertainment. Picking the game with the lowest house edge seems to me like ordering the drink in the bar with the lowest markup over the liquor store price. If you're going to gamble or drink, gamble or drink what you like, not what's cheapest.

[SheetWise]

I agree with the AaronBrown. Theres a reason that Keno lounges are filled with little old ladies -- even with a 40% house edge, it can be the cheapest to play -- when you only have to play $1 every 10-20 minutes. Think about how much socializing you want to do.

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
Going to Vegas next week - will be playing allot of poker, however I am sure we will end up at some table games as well. Just trying to limit the damage I do when not playing poker at the Bellagio.

[/ QUOTE ]

Consider the time factor, please, along with the correct odds, which are availabe practically everywhere you look on the net. (Try The Wizartd Of Odds (http://www.thewizardofodds.com/) for instance.)

If game A has a player EV of -5% per round of play and game B of -10%, but game A is played at 100 rounds per hour while game B at 10 rounds per hour, then (assuming betting an equal amount of money per round in the two games) you would be "limiting the damage" by choosing game B.

BTW, you should be able to calculate the cost of your "non-poker fun" through the figures of EV/round, your intended bets and rounds/hour.

[BruceZ]

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we should compare the games assuming an equal amount of money bet on each, which means comparing them on the basis of their house edge.

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This goes beyond probability into taste, but I disagree. I would hold the amount of fun (or whatever other reason you play casino games) constant. I happen to like blackjack, because I enjoy the small mental effort required to break even, and I don't like feeling that I'm paying an edge. In fact, I like to think I profit, due to the comps. I'd go crazy trying to get excited about a pure random event, like a roulette wheel or craps die. Another game I like is video Poker, with a good machine you can also get a slight edge if you pay attention.

But other people prefer not to make decisions. The nice thing about roulette is you can never make a mistake. You can play as well drunk as sober, you can bet your mood without loss of value, you can play your wife's birthday and get husband-points. I can't see ever playing red/black, but for a lot of people a relatively small bet on a single number gives more excitment per house edge than a much larger bet at craps or blackjack. Plus the slower pace means you make fewer bets.

Then there are others who like to throw the dice, and play with a table (almost) all pulling the same way. You can actually make friends at the craps table, something that's rare at roulette and blackjack.

My advice would be to pick which game you like to play the most, then adjust the stake to the amount you're willing to pay for your entertainment. Picking the game with the lowest house edge seems to me like ordering the drink in the bar with the lowest markup over the liquor store price. If you're going to gamble or drink, gamble or drink what you like, not what's cheapest.

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That's fine, but the OP's question asked "What table game has the most favorable player odds", and that was the question I was answering. If you have some constraint of fun which requires that you spend more money on a certain game, then of course factor that in. People can figure that out for themselves, but they need the house edge, which is what I provided. This is the probability forum after all, not the "how to maximize your fun" forum.

One thing that many negative EV gamblers find "fun" is to play a progression. You are much better off doing that with craps than BJ since the probability of winning your pass line bet in craps is almost 50%, while in BJ it is only about 41%, with about 50% losses.

[antifish225]

Wow Guys thanks - I actually like craps the best if I am playing table games (and Casino War of course....kidding) - the math outlined all makes good sense (especially the bets per hour part) - craps is just such as fast game that you are likley giving up more per hour than in BJ.....thanks again

[BruceZ]

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Wow Guys thanks - I actually like craps the best if I am playing table games (and Casino War of course....kidding) - the math outlined all makes good sense (especially the bets per hour part) - craps is just such as fast game that you are likley giving up more per hour than in BJ.....thanks again

[/ QUOTE ]

For the same bet size, that's true, but in craps you could just bet a dollar, right? I'm not sure, I've never spent much time by a craps table. Also, in BJ you need to play almost every hand to keep your seat, while in craps you don't have to bet every roll, and you could even just bet on the come out roll. Don't forget that if you can get someone to give you even money for a 6 or 8, you will have an advantage of over 9%.

[BruceZ]

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Don't forget that if you can get someone to give you even money for a 6 or 8, you will have an advantage of over 9%.

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That should be, get them to take even money on a 6 vs. a 7 or on an 8 vs. a 7.

[AaronBrown]

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That's fine, but the OP's question asked "What table game has the most favorable player odds", and that was the question I was answering. If you have some constraint of fun which requires that you spend more money on a certain game, then of course factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that your original answer was incorrect. It was correct and clear, as always. I was hijacking the thread to a related topic.

I do have to question your "some constraint on fun" sentence. It sounds like Mr. Spock's answer if Dr. McCoy asked for gambling advice. Do you dislike casino gambling?