30/60 River checkraise bluff

[PokerMike]

He is 58/14/1.4 over 298hands(these stats are filtered for 7+ players, so he is much looser/aggro 5handed)

Is it just me or do really horrible players always go psycho spewing on boards like these? I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week. This time i had no showdown value. As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero checks.

He has no pair, no A, probably no K.

Flop: (2.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (2.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font>

Or is this just bleeding chips?

[Alobar]

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I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week.

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As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

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looks like you answered your own question /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I fold the flop

[Surfbullet]

You are clearly spewing chips here. While this may work, you are wagering 3 to win 5 on a bluff - that means it has to work more than 60% of the time, which I do not see happening.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

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I've called down with Q hi and won on a similar board vs a similar opponent this week.

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As bad as these players are, they won't showdown Q/J hi here....right?

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looks like you answered your own question /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I fold the flop

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.

Surf

[Alobar]

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.



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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass. So your choices are to run a bluff, or pray you hit your 6 outter in a ridiculously small pot. Neither of which will show a long term profit IMO

[PokerMike]

Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

[PokerMike]

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I might bet at the flop. but, yes, once checked, I fold.



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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass. So your choices are to run a bluff, or pray you hit your 6 outter in a ridiculously small pot. Neither of which will show a long term profit IMO

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Right, all that stuff makes sense. This really is an isolated incident, and i just went with the read instead of looking at the size of the pot.

[Surfbullet]

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Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

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You are making sense. The problem here isn't the inability to fold another player's Q or J-hi, it is that you will never fold out enough hands to make up what you wagered.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

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betting at the flop here does no good. He will never fold, and your hand sucks major ass.

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Yeahhh... you're right. He might fold once in awhile IMO, but not enough.

Surf

[Alobar]

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Not really. The really horribleplayers will consistently call down with A and maybe K hi, but they know enough not to call down with Q or J hi. Because i did it in one situation(double paired board vs a SB limper with huge PFR) doesn't mean it was wrong or that bad players do it.

Am i making any sense?

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I didnt mean you were a bad player for calling down with Q high, I mean the guy you beat obviously had worse than Q high, so apparently they will go to showdown with that. I know the situation is different here, betting as opposed to calling. But like you said, bad players get stupid on boards like these.

Even if the river bluff here will show a profit, when you factor all the bets you put into the pot to get to this spot, I can't even see it close to being a winner enough. I know each decision is independant, but you obviously had planned on bluffing this much sooner than the river, so for that sake, its all one decision.

[PokerMike]

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You are clearly spewing chips here. While this may work, you are wagering 3 to win 5 on a bluff - that means it has to work more than 60% of the time, which I do not see happening.

Surf

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OK how often will he hit a pair with his random hand? ~24%(i think). He will most definately spew on this board with whatever junk he has(so his postflop action gives away nothing to his hand : pair or no pair), but what he won't do is call the last river bet without a pair or A/K hi(and we know he doesn't have an A or K from preflop).

I'm trying to at least get someone to admit that there is an argument for planning to raise him off his junk hand on the river. He is so insane shorthanded + the fact that he will only hit 24% of the time is an argument for this being profitable. Any takers?

[Alobar]

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OK how often will he hit a pair with his random hand? ~24%(i think). He will most definately spew on this board with whatever junk he has(so his postflop action gives away nothing to his hand : pair or no pair), but what he won't do is call the last river bet without a pair or A/K hi(and we know he doesn't have an A or K from preflop).

I'm trying to at least get someone to admit that there is an argument for planning to raise him off his junk hand on the river. He is so insane shorthanded + the fact that he will only hit 24% of the time is an argument for this being profitable. Any takers?

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Since you basically have to set it up as a bluff from the begining, I still dont think you win often enough. You risked 7sb in this hand to win 9.5sb meaning you've got to win at least 74% of the time (Im hungover so that might not be right). So its only uber marginally profitable under the best circumstances, no?

[PokerMike]

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Since you basically have to set it up as a bluff from the begining, I still dont think you win often enough. You risked 7sb in this hand to win 9.5sb meaning you've got to win at least 74% of the time (Im hungover so that might not be right). So its only uber marginally profitable under the best circumstances, no?

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I don't think it can be clear cut as that, since i will sometimes hit a pair. All he has to do is not hit a pair for this to have value, and i think there is a big enough chance of that. The turn bet may have actually been a bad idea since the argument i'm using is to attempt to get him to fold the river(since getting raised there is pretty much a nightmare - and i think he will at the very least call with 2 overcards on a 3 turn so i don't have too much fold equity).

I can't remember i too many times where i thought this was the correct play(raising river anyway) but on this board vs this opponent i think it may have value, razor thin or otherwise.

[Stork]

I haven't read all the replies, but I think once he bets that river he is committed to a showdown. Based on the flop/turn action, I doubt he expects to blow you off a better hand on the river. It looks like he rivered a pair.

I would just fold the flop but if you really want this pot I would rather c/r the turn or river then donkbet. And if you still want this pot after leading the turn I'd just 3-bet it right there and give it up if he doesn't fold the turn. Still though, I don't think you should take this one past the flop.

[PokerMike]

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Still though, I don't think you should take this one past the flop.

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This type of opponent will spew on these flops 100% of the time. I don't want to automatically be giving him these pots.

In regards to taking it away from him before the river, i think it might be problematic since he will be seeing a river very often(maybe everytime?) hoping to hit any pair.

[mperich]

Butchered.

-Mike

[Stork]

I don't think you should automatically give up these pots either, but wait until you have at least a face card. Even if he does bluff at these pots all the time, you can't play back at him with just 8 high no pair no draw unless you think you have a good chance to make him fold, and if he's taking lots of hands to the river you can't really like your chances. Although you probably won this time.

[Surfbullet]

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Still though, I don't think you should take this one past the flop.

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This type of opponent will spew on these flops 100% of the time.

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Then make him pay by going to showdown with Ace and King high, and any pair. This guy spews chips postflop with no pair hands - punish him by showing down better hands, not by trying to make him fold on the river after elaborately run bluffs.

Surf