QQ with A-T-T flop

[Vee Quiva]

15-30 blinds. 10 players left. Hero has 915 chips. SB has 1060. Hero has the button.

Hero has QQ. Folded to the button and hero raises to 120. SB calls and BB folds. Heads up to flop 270 in pot.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks and Hero makes continuation bet of 120. SB calls

Pot is 510 to turn. 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks.

What's the best move here and why?

[tigerite]

Check behind. By betting here you will get raised when you are behind and thus forego any chance of improving to be the best hand, which you could by the river if the lovely Q comes. You're basically getting infinite implied odds. You can also then call a bet on the river if it's small enough.

[BAK]

* warning - newbie's first attempt at analysis here *

I would bet at least 200 here on the turn. While it is certainly possible that the SB has an A or a T, I would not be so sure that OP's hand was not the best hand here. I think most of the time, you don't need another Q to be the best hand. I think checking behind makes it much more likely that the SB will take a stab at this pot on the river regardless of his hand.

I find that many times in this type of situation, the SB will call the continuation bet on the flop with KJ or a small pp and fold to a bet on the turn when a blank comes. If SB calls the 200 bet, well, then you don't really know where you are. If he check-raises on the turn or bets big on the river, then you can drop the hand if you think you are beat. But I don't think you should check behind on the turn unless you are trying to induce a bluff that you intend to call on the river.

But then I have a lot to learn and wouldn't be surprised to hear I have it all wrong.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Vee Quiva]

Is it better to bet on the turn with the idea that he will probably check the river to you?

In your line of play, let's say I check it through and the river is no help. Opponent leads out for $200. Call or don't call, either way it's a tough decision.

If I decide I'm willing to call a small bet on the river if I don't improve, would it be better then to bet the $200 on the turn after he checks to you.

If he raises, you know for certain you are behind and let it go. If he calls and checks the river, it costs the same amount. If he calls and then leads the river, you know he's been slow playing a monster.

Is this viable or am I missing something?

[tigerite]

No, it wouldn't. You still lose the $200 either way.

Ok here's a similar example. Hero has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and raises preflop, get two callers. The flop comes

K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero bets out 2/3rds of pot, and one calls. Turn comes

6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Limper checks again, Hero ?

[Vee Quiva]

How is this similar, you have top pair top kicker?

[tigerite]

Well how much would you bet on the turn?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Well how much would you bet on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't, I would check behind, and call a bet on the river unless I make my flush w/o the board pairing (in which case I would raise). And yes I'm just calling if an 3rd king hits.

[tigerite]

Not you..! I am sure you've read TPFAP where I hijacked this example from.. it was meant at the OP

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Not you..! I am sure you've read TPFAP where I hijacked this example from.. it was meant at the OP

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually haven't gotten around to reading TPFAP yet /images/graemlins/wink.gif Though I do own it.

BTW that line is only for opponents who don't suck. If I'm against a loose passive who will call down with JJ or KJ here I'm betting that turn. It's nice to see that my instincts match Sklansky answer.

The reason is that my hand has showdown value and anyone who gives me tons of action here has me beat. The question that I don't know is do you bet if he checks to you, I think the answer is yes, but against a lot of opponents you fold to a river c/r.

[Vee Quiva]

I'm probably betting around 1/2 the pot on the turn because I feel I'm ahead and there's a slight chance he's on a straight draw and I want to charge him.

I'm assuming you are going to advocate checking the turn to induce a bluff?

[tigerite]

Even against them I don't think you should bet the turn; too much chance of them raising you and you having to lay down what is possibly the best hand, and if it isn't, has a chance to become the best hand at the river.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Even against them I don't think you should bet the turn; too much chance of them raising you and you having to lay down what is possibly the best hand, and if it isn't, has a chance to become the best hand at the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against the type of opponents who suck that I'm talking about, I'm betting that turn and calling the raise confident I have the best hand nearly all the time.

But against 90%+ of opponents it's definitely correct to check the turn.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably betting around 1/2 the pot on the turn because I feel I'm ahead and there's a slight chance he's on a straight draw and I want to charge him.

I'm assuming you are going to advocate checking the turn to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. You should never bet in the last position if you would hate your opponent raising you back. You would have the draw to the nuts but not the odds to call it. Also you would not have any idea if your hand was ahead or not. This is really simple poker theory and nothing at all to do with "inducing a bluff". TPTK is just not that strong in NL poker.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you are going to advocate checking the turn to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you bet that turn a good opponent will put you on no worse than TPTK and fold if behind.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you are going to advocate checking the turn to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you bet that turn a good opponent will put you on no worse than TPTK and fold if behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my only question about the discussion regarding the AK hand -- when did we start assuming our opponents are good?

I bet KQ pays us off here. Same with KJ, KT. People are pretty bad at poker.

[Vee Quiva]

I agree with checking the turn on my original example with QQ. I think you explained the reasons quite clearly.

I'm still not sold on checking the turn in your example. If I'm raised on the turn, I have a tough decision. I have seen many bad players call my turn bet down with KQ or QQ. I don't think I should be giving up those chips. Plus why give my opponent infinite odds to hit a card if they are behind, which I think they are?

[Vee Quiva]

Also, I haven't read Hold'em for Advanced Players in a while, but isn't this example from a limit game?

[BAK]

I am just trying to learn.

The assumption here is that the SB would not have called the continuation bet unless he had you beat? You would take the free card assuming that it is going to help you more than it will help the other guy?

Assuming no Q on the river, how big of a bet would you call on the river?

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. You should never bet in the last position if you would hate your opponent raising you back. You would have the draw to the nuts but not the odds to call it. Also you would not have any idea if your hand was ahead or not. This is really simple poker theory and nothing at all to do with "inducing a bluff". TPTK is just not that strong in NL poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, help me out--what's the thinking here?

Are we that afraid of a slowplayed set? Or is it just that we don't want to commit a lot of chips to TPTK in any case in NL?

(Because, say, even slim odds that some chucklehead stayed in with K7 vs our raise mean that we could lose more chips than we could ever win?)

I must need more fundamental changes in my thinking, because I see a situation like this and my mouth starts to water. To me, if I bet and I'm raised, I still think, "Cool! Somebody has KQo!"

Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I haven't read Hold'em for Advanced Players in a while, but isn't this example from a limit game?

[/ QUOTE ]

TPFAP != HPFAP

TPFAP = Tournament Poker For Advanced Players.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I said it matters whether my opponent is an idiot or not. There are opponents where it is correct to bet this turn, that is almost never the case against good opponents. If you bet this turn in an $11, it is never a big mistake. If you bet this turn in a $215, it is almost always a big mistake.

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do I need to start thinking, "Uh-oh, a set..." or, "Uh-oh, I can't risk all my chips with just one pair?" Is this a tourney-specific adjustment?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I said it matters whether my opponent is an idiot or not. There are opponents where it is correct to bet this turn, that is almost never the case against good opponents. If you bet this turn in an $11, it is never a big mistake. If you bet this turn in a $215, it is almost always a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it. So, I'm playing in a $215, and I don't bet the turn, because I can't handle that raise.

Am I not betting the turn primarily because
<ul type="square">1) I actually fear that my stronger-than-the-11s opponent will have a good chance of having me beaten with a set; or,

2) I only have TPTK, my opponent probably knows it, and knows I can't call a raise with it, and it doesn't matter what he has?[/list]

I realize that those two things go hand in hand; I'm just trying to zero in on the actual thinking (and the villain's).

Would things change if I didn't have the flush draw? Would I then bet and fold to a raise?

[durron597]

You're not betting the turn because:

1) You can't call a raise
2) You have showdown value
3) Free cards almost never hurt you
4) You might induce a bluff on the river
5) If you are already beaten you have a strong draw
6) You never get called by a hand you beat
7) Hands you beat might bet river because you checked behind on turn
8) You have all the above reasons not to bet, and no reason that compensates. The only reason you might bet the turn is to try to get a hand like KQ, KJ, QQ get allin with you. But that won't happen against a player who has a brain if you bet this turn. By checking they might bet the river, but they won't call a river raise if you beat them most of the time but will call with all hands that beat you.

In short, checking the turn wins more chips when you are ahead and loses the least when you are behind.

[puzzlemoney]

Excellent... All those things make sense to me.

So we still think we're strong, but that we're either well ahead or way behind... I guess this is where my HEFAP kicks in... I'm still living in SSHE-land.

Another question--how does "showdown value" differ from just having a strong (made) hand, or are they the same thing? I've seen the term around a bit, and I wonder if there's some nuance I'm missing.

Thanks for your patience (and sorry if I've hijacked the thread)

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I haven't read Hold'em for Advanced Players in a while, but isn't this example from a limit game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

[BAK]

This is good stuff, thanks! I hope you don't mind, but what next?

You check behind and the river is 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, presumably no help to either of you. Caller bets 2/3 pot bet - what do you do? Have you induced a bluff or are you way behind or doesn't it matter? You didn't make your flush so is this always a fold unless the bet is a minbet?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Caller bets 2/3 pot bet - what do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, this is always a call!

[danger_mouse]

Against a loose player (especially passive), I'll bet the turn for value.

Against a cagey player, I'll check and let him bluff some more chips to me on the river. If I bet the turn, he'll either fold (I get no chips), or check raise me off the pot.

Somewhere in between? Line 2.