A request for experienced winning players re: inevitable downswings

[Beck]

We all know downswings happens, even to the best players. We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**.

I see a lot of posters who ask "I just had 10 OTM, is that normal" or "how long has your longest losing streak been".

Personally I play the $22's and started the $33's and am super-over-bankrolled for them, as I am very conservative moving up, and has been playing 1/2 limit and bonuswhoring previously.
So downswings is no threat to my BR at all, but still hate to lose of course. I'm down 9 buy-ins after 35 $33's, but have had 9 4th's which all were coinflips between exit and a usually solid lead ITM. Being on the wrong side of variance, they were all exits. Some yelling, some stomping in the ground, and I realized that my average $EV of these 4'ths were about $65, so I'll just wait for the results to even out, and then (therotically) I'm showing profit. Playing correctly and the results is what's important, right??
And even when I've played 10 times as many SNG's, if I make a couple of 1st in a row that will be clearly visile in ROI. And a losing streak of 10+ gamesOTM will also be clearly visible. So that just goes to show the importance of sufficient sample size.

Anyhow...... Enough rambling....
What I would like to see from some of you winning players is a result-streak of perhaps 1000 (2000 SNG's??) that shows the ups and downs of good/bad luck periods, if possible graphically.
I think that will give me, as well as other newbies who still doubt themselves when the downswings happens, what sort of fluctuations one could expect.

Anybody willing to provide their data?

[Mr_J]

"We all know downswings happens, even to the best players."

Yes. I can remember terrible runs from most of the regular posters here.

"We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**."

Depends on level, and how good a winning player they are. 30 buyins really isn't enough unless you're willing to step down a stake or 2.

"so I'll just wait for the results to even out"

Unfortunately they don't actually even out. But, the more games you play, the more your sample will reflect ev.

"what sort of fluctuations one could expect."

Just remember, what ever you have experienced, someone else has experienced much worse.

Off the top of my head, irieguy had a 40 buyin drop, raptor had 700+ for only breakeven, stupid sucker had something pretty vicious, maybe 30-40, daliman had a pretty ugly drop at the $215s. Plenty of others...

"shows the ups and downs of good/bad luck periods, if possible graphically."

suited sixes has a good one.

I remember one $11er had a 60 buyin drop and I think he still showed a profit at the end of it??

[1C5]

I have played maybe 2000 11 and 22s combined. Had a 22 OTM streak in the 22s. Had a 15 buy in downswing just yesterday. I have broken many pens and pencils on my desk. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Slim Pickens]

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/1568/330ld.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
That's 18.5 buy-ins at the 33's.

I'm almost to 1000 this year. I'll post something when I get there.

[pooh74]

I play on PS so I cant speak much about PP. But I know that for me, the lower buy-in I play, the less I really need. I consider it a real rarity to be down 10 BIs at the 16s at stars. While playing the 27s-60s you can really have some swings bc the crowd is much more regular and there isnt a constant influx of fish as there is at the low buy-ins....so ironically, the higher you play, the more buyins you will need. This i sort of obvious but I've only seen a few posters point it out.

I personally would feel very comfortable starting out with 30 BIs at 10s.

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]
"We also know that 30 buy-ins seem to be the standard buffer needed **for winning players**."

Depends on level, and how good a winning player they are. 30 buyins really isn't enough unless you're willing to step down a stake or 2.


[/ QUOTE ]
Which is why I prefer to be over-BR'ed, so don't have to worry about crippling it, but still playing the level of desire.
[ QUOTE ]

"so I'll just wait for the results to even out"

Unfortunately they don't actually even out. But, the more games you play, the more your sample will reflect ev.


[/ QUOTE ]
What I mean is, I lost like 10 out of 10 coinflips. Eventually, I will win some, and sometimes I will win 10 out of 10.

[ QUOTE ]

"what sort of fluctuations one could expect."

Just remember, what ever you have experienced, someone else has experienced much worse.


[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, I know, but I guess everything is relative?

[1C5]

No, no you won't. I have NEVER won 10/10 coinflips yet I have lost 10/10 many times.

[lacky]

well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]
I have played maybe 2000 11 and 22s combined. Had a 22 OTM streak in the 22s. Had a 15 buy in downswing just yesterday. I have broken many pens and pencils on my desk. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Currently down 12.5 buyin at the $33 currently in the midst of 15 OTM. 5 of these are 4th's and 3 5ths, all correct pushes according to SNGPT given somewhat reasonable calling ranges. Yup, that sucks, especially when it's my first venture into this uncharted territory, and I can see that the players are so much not any better than at the $22's. Especially gotta love when people push into me, and they then proceed to hit their 3 outs.

Well, at least I make some back from Bodog's bonus.....

[ QUOTE ]
well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the most disheartening post ever.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the most disheartening post ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's as disheartening as a post about a guy who made $21000+ can be...

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Lacky's game is probably more similar to mine than anyone else's on this forum. We think about the same, and perform about the same(though he does it as his exclusive living, which is much more difficult.) I haven't played as many $55's as he, but my ROI is within a percentage point.

I have had a run of 477 SNGs at breakeven. I've had 26 OOTM in a row. I've thrown a 40 buy-in party.

I'll post a graph later if I can figure out how to do it.

Irieguy

[psyduck]

TWENTY SIX?

[lacky]

plus $4500+ in rakeback /images/graemlins/wink.gif

but yeah, varience is a bitch, and if you dont understand that it can really mess with your head. Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long, makes for a crappy week or two. I have no idea how a recreational player makes it through something like that, i suspect they don't and give up.

The truth is you can go a long time in any type of poker not winning and still not be doing anything wrong.

Steve

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long

[/ QUOTE ]

Not long at all. Your whole 2700 would have taken less than 10 weeks.

[Vetstadium]

I have logged about 2500 $33 SNG's only a 15% ROI 8 tabling. I keep track in blocks of 500 just finished my lowest ROK for a 500 block 7.5% (have yet to have a negative ROI over 500 block. Longest OTM was 18, most ITM around 15 (a crazy day 10 of those firsts). Every time I have a bad OTM streak I second guess myself should I play any more etc etc. We all hate losing even if we know we will win in long run. My biggest accomplishment I made as a player was not to play other games to try to get money back fast like 10/20 limit in my beginning days that was my biggest downfall. If I lose couple hundred one day it no longer makes me go on tilt.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
TWENTY SIX?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and it was really f'd up the way it happened. I had played 474 SNGs and done really well. I was going to finish my set of 500 and move up a level the next day. I was going to do this regardless of my results. I then lost all 26 of my final SNGs.

I moved up anyways and smoked the $109's with a 26% ROI over my first 200. Made the 0-for-26 a little easier to swallow.

Irieguy

[lacky]

yep, but in reality there's tons of play at other levels, limit from 3/6 to 15/30, nl ring up to nl $1000, hundreds of mtt's, and some omaha h/l. So the 2700 is really over about 1.5 years.

Steve

Perhaps your excitment of doing so well + Your goal to need to reach 500 sngs + Your increased confidence = Some poor decisions on the final strech.

Of course, I am sure you didn't make mistakes in every game but this may have accounted for a portion of the bad string??

Cheers

[1C5]

I am now in the middle of a 20+ downswing. If I had a downswing like this when I first started, I would have NEVER EVER played poker again.

I am just shaking my head. I now have 8 4ths in a row and really feel like breaking something. Like Irie said in the past, I can now predict the exact last card on the river that is needed to break my AA. And when you expect AA to lose to 77 and 45o, you know you are starting to feel *it*.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well, without having to figure out how to post a chart, I can provide this. I've played 2700+ 55's at an ave ROI of 14.5%. In that time my most OOTM was 18, my biggest downturn was 36 buyins, and my longest break even period was 347 tournies.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats the most disheartening post ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it? I think its very encouraging and what the OP asked for.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps your excitment of doing so well + Your goal to need to reach 500 sngs + Your increased confidence = Some poor decisions on the final strech.

Of course, I am sure you didn't make mistakes in every game but this may have accounted for a portion of the bad string??

Cheers

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is a concept that I've always had a little trouble with. Whenever a player is going through a losing streak, somebody will always say that they are actually just playing badly.

But the fact is... even with perfect play, there is a statistical likelihood for a long losing streak. Is 26 OOTM in a row possible with perfect play? Yes. Was I playing perfectly during my 26? No. Everybody will make mistakes and have periods when their play is suboptimal. In a way... that's part of variance.

What this thread (and a million others) is addressing, is the question of "how bad can it get?" It's helpful to have an idea about this to avoid insanity.

My point is that it is actually more helpful to know how bad it can get including the times that you aren't playing your best than it is to know how bad it can get with perfect play. Because we are not robots.

Irieguy

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

But the fact is... even with perfect play, there is a statistical likelihood for a long losing streak. Is 26 OOTM in a row possible with perfect play? Yes. Was I playing perfectly during my 26? No. Everybody will make mistakes and have periods when their play is suboptimal. In a way... that's part of variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OOTM-streaks aren't that important to analyze anything from. My longest is 13, yet my longest breakeven streak is 500. There is no real reason my 13 couldn't have been 20, except that I won a coinflip when I needed it.

[Paul2432]

I've done some simulations using a random number generator for various ROI. The fact is if you play a lot you will have big down swings. The more you play, the bigger down swing you will have. I don't have the numbers at my fingertips, but if you have play a few thousand tournaments, a 50+ buy-in down swing is pretty much expected.

Paul

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
plus $4500+ in rakeback /images/graemlins/wink.gif

but yeah, varience is a bitch, and if you dont understand that it can really mess with your head. Playing 6 to 8 at a time, 35 hours a week or so, 350 tourneys isn't that long, makes for a crappy week or two. I have no idea how a recreational player makes it through something like that, i suspect they don't and give up.

The truth is you can go a long time in any type of poker not winning and still not be doing anything wrong.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

A rec player (I'm one) is less likely to have a downswing like that...mainly bc we dont play 8 at a time (I play 3) and we dont have to play high buy-ins bc we already have a main source of income. 30+ buyin downswing is hard for me to even imagine but I guess having experienced a 20 BI downswing I can sort of fathom it...I guess it hurts 50% more.

Anyway, my point is, 8 tabling higher buyins plus playing so many hours a week will lead to these streaks once in a while....and its not always just variance from the mean. There are other variables such as the compounding effects of losing on your play-tilt, and just general burnout. Recreational players have the cushion of not HAVING to play if they dont feel like it.

[Bigwig]

I don't have a graph, or anything solid to comment on at this point. But I've definitely gone 300+ tourneys at break even. I've also had streaks of 500 tourneys at 35% ROI. It's freakish. It can be really difficult to understand, since you're talking about tens of thousands of hands in those streaks.

I still have trouble dealing with it, because any losing week I have is full of insane bad luck. INSANE! But that's a good thing. If I was just getting my money in with the worst of it all the time, or not running up against some of the worst possibe opponent holdings on pushes, then I'd have serious leaks. But since that's not the case, it's variance.

I'm getting better at handling it. I wish I was good as some of the other posters. I've got a crazy bad temper.

[Bigwig]

I'm having a bad week, BTW. Down 10 buy-ins. Last week I cleaned house, but still had a ton of 4ths (like this week). It's so hard to not look at 'what ifs' and just concentrate on improving. But you must keep plugging.

[raptor517]

ive made a few posts like this in the past. let me first say that i play a lot. ok great. so now look, variance happens, variance sucks, but you know what? you can prove how it happens with statistics.. and its not likely for a 15% roi player to go ootm 26 in the row, it WILL happen over a big enough sample. some players are lucky enough to run well over their entire careers. (well meaning not god awful enough to drop 26 in a row anyways..) however, it could take hundreds of thousands of sngs to see both ends of variance, and see everything. no one. and i mean no one, will ever get to that point. some people will see good runs, some willl see bad, some will see both.

i dont doubt that a LOT of players that could be VERY solid sngers have quit because they started off wrong, went on an awful run, ootm 20+ in a row, something like that. i agree with lacky that i have NO clue how recreational players can deal with that. ugh, its awful. anyways, now im gonna talk about me..

ok, so ive played more 55s than prolly anybody over the last 6 months. i 8-12 tabled them about 100 hours a day. anyways, i had THREE 50+ buyin drops, 18 ootm in a row, 22 ootm IN THE SAME DAY AS THE 18, then 26/27 ootm. it was funny because the 18 and 22 was in a 12 hour period, but so was a 13/14 itm run which kinda helped it bounce back. as irie said, was i playing perfect? no, i never do. was i on tilt, possibly, but not that it would affect my game in a huge degree.. anyways, these things DOOOOO happen.. donbuttons is a good friend of mine, and recently in the 109s he had something awful like a 65 buyin drop. SIXTY FIVE. that blows. we talked a lot about variance, and basically complained about how awful it can be.

in the 109s and 215s, ive had a 50+ buyin drop in EACH Of them, but no ootm in a row over 14. just a matter of time though.. anyways, best advice i can give is to keep yer head straight, play at a level yer comfortable with, and KEEP PLAYING. play through it. in the end, it will make you a much stronger and better player. holla

[Bigwig]

In summation:

Variance = /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
In summation:

Variance = /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance -> http://homepage.ntlworld.com/mark.jone-junn/bopdude/gifs/humping.gif <- Me

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
ive made a few posts like this in the past. let me first say that i play a lot. ok great. so now look, variance happens, variance sucks, but you know what? you can prove how it happens with statistics.. and its not likely for a 15% roi player to go ootm 26 in the row, it WILL happen over a big enough sample. some players are lucky enough to run well over their entire careers. (well meaning not god awful enough to drop 26 in a row anyways..) however, it could take hundreds of thousands of sngs to see both ends of variance, and see everything. no one. and i mean no one, will ever get to that point. some people will see good runs, some willl see bad, some will see both.

i dont doubt that a LOT of players that could be VERY solid sngers have quit because they started off wrong, went on an awful run, ootm 20+ in a row, something like that. i agree with lacky that i have NO clue how recreational players can deal with that. ugh, its awful. anyways, now im gonna talk about me..

ok, so ive played more 55s than prolly anybody over the last 6 months. i 8-12 tabled them about 100 hours a day. anyways, i had THREE 50+ buyin drops, 18 ootm in a row, 22 ootm IN THE SAME DAY AS THE 18, then 26/27 ootm. it was funny because the 18 and 22 was in a 12 hour period, but so was a 13/14 itm run which kinda helped it bounce back. as irie said, was i playing perfect? no, i never do. was i on tilt, possibly, but not that it would affect my game in a huge degree.. anyways, these things DOOOOO happen.. donbuttons is a good friend of mine, and recently in the 109s he had something awful like a 65 buyin drop. SIXTY FIVE. that blows. we talked a lot about variance, and basically complained about how awful it can be.

in the 109s and 215s, ive had a 50+ buyin drop in EACH Of them, but no ootm in a row over 14. just a matter of time though.. anyways, best advice i can give is to keep yer head straight, play at a level yer comfortable with, and KEEP PLAYING. play through it. in the end, it will make you a much stronger and better player. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

just wanted to thank you for that post.

[Newt_Buggs]

not sure how much this will help since I haven't had any downswings out of the ordinary at the $50s. After that nice heater for the first 230 I hit a frustrating cold streak though, then another around 1100.
http://img50.imageshack.us/img50/1738/profitgraph6zl.png

[Mr_J]

"since I haven't had any downswings out of the ordinary"

That's a very nice graph, very nice roi as well.

[curtains]

I look at things the exact opposite of how raptor does. My conclusion is that Party is rigged. Especially during the last 4-5 days. Before that everything was normal.

[johnnybeef]

i had my first losing month ever in june....part of it was due to playing above my head, part was due to a 50 buyin downswing that happened at the middle of the month. previous to that my largest was 20 buyins, so 50 was very frustrating. the beginning of it was due to a few bad plays, but the end was due to variance. it seemed as if i lost every coinflip that mattered, or lost whenever i was all in with the best hand. it sucks, but every big swing has caused me to improve my game. just bust your but, and review your game, and you will come through it.

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
i had my first losing month ever in june....part of it was due to playing above my head, part was due to a 50 buyin downswing that happened at the middle of the month. previous to that my largest was 20 buyins, so 50 was very frustrating. the beginning of it was due to a few bad plays, but the end was due to variance. it seemed as if i lost every coinflip that mattered, or lost whenever i was all in with the best hand. it sucks, but every big swing has caused me to improve my game. just bust your but, and review your game, and you will come through it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you were probably folding K4o to pushes on the bubble way too much. Just a guess.

[johnnybeef]

spite bitch

[skierdude1000]

How the hell everyone make such nice charts?

[tjh]

You know.. this all works both ways.

So a winning player can lose dozens of SNG's in a row. This fact can lead a player in the midst of a downswing to think one of two ways.

<ul type="square"> I am a winner just having bad luck
Perhaps I am not a winner at all
[/list]

You HAVE to look at both possible truths. You must continually evaluate your play. The more games you play the closer your results will reflect wether you are good or not. Keep playing yes but never stop thinking and evaluating.

I have played less than 300 SNG's. I started to get serious a few months ago and kept a diary and notes on each game. Played a hundred and came out ahead, notthing huge but between 1 and 2 dollars a game at the 11's.

The story at the 22's has been different. I have logged about thirty and I am down about $120 or six buyins. No big deal but six down at the new level feels like 12 at the old. Oh yea that is because it is the same as 12 at the old level.

I know my sample size is puny and it feels good to know that Irie and Raptor and Daliman have all experienced serious drops. With each game I play my game should improve.

I dunno, I guess what I am saying is that if you lose 26 games in a row it does not automatically mean that you are just having a downswing like the pros all have from time to time. Losers have downswings of 26 games too. You may be a loser. Keep playing and sooner or later you will find out. Lose more money than you can afford to and you are a loser by anyone's standards.

Really think about it, post some hands, add your input on hands and see if it is inline with the experts reasoning.

Lost a coinflip ? Did you have to flip the coin in the first place ? Maybe yes maybe no. When I lose a game I begin my post game analysis by seeing what I may have done wrong. If I truly got unlucky so be it. But I also need to make sure that I made the correct play.

You can not chose the cards you are dealt but you can chose what you do with those cards.

Learning to play good poker is hard, actually playing good poker can be pretty friggin boring. Stange truths about your character may surface, I found I was to impatient or inquisitive or something to actually stick to the game plan that I laid out for each game. I learned over time but it was wierd when I KNEW how to play a better game but just could not make myself PLAY a better game.

Oh and seat number 6 is cursed, and J 8o is my lucky hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
How the hell everyone make such nice charts?

[/ QUOTE ]
SNG tracker

[GtrHtr]

sorry to hijack the thread Slim, but how did you cut and paste the chart off the spreadsheet? This and the ITM ROI chart are the only 2 things on the page I cannot seem to export.

GTR