deep 1/2 hand - nuts on flop

[gomberg]

$1/2 PL Omaha Game. EP player raises to $8 and gets 2 calls. I also call
on the button with KsKhQhJs.

Flop comes Kc6d7d. Pre-flop raiser bets $30
other 2 players call.

Pre-lop raiser has over $600 calller 1 has $140,
caller 2 has $280 I have $500. I've played with pre-flop raiser for many
hands and know he will not follow up his pre-flop raise after getting 4
callers with just AA. His most likely holding is AA with the nut flush draw.

The caller with the $280 stack generally only calls pot sized raises with
draws to the nuts so he probably has 12 outs to a straight.

No read on the
small stack What do I do?

[LA_Price]

I'd raise the pot here. You'd really hate to lose your market here if some straightening card or flush card hits and someone with a lower set gets timid. Even if someone hit's a straight or flush on the turn you have an excellent redraw. Winning the $120 dollars in the pot wouldn't be bad either.

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the pot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome back LA.

[gomberg]

This hand was played by a friend of mine - here's the results and some thoughts.

I still think a raise is a lot better here than a call multiway. Comments?

A pot sized raise was my standard play in this situation until just
recently. The thought being that you have the nuts so make the draws pay to suck
out. Now I've been mixing it up a bit and the results have me thinking
that the raise isn’t obviously the best play. With a lead out bet and 2
callers a pot size bet by me pretty much completely defines my hand. The
savvy players can now fold if they don't have the correct number of outs.
The only callers will likely be hands with enough outs that they are not
big dogs in the hand. A call on the other hand makes it look like I'm on
some kind of a draw as well. If I just call I can get away from the hand
if the flush or straight hits on the turn and I wind up heads up not
getting proper pot odds. If a blank hits there is a good chance one of the
draws or a smaller set bets out on the turn and I can put the hammer down
then. The hand actually played out as follows:

Turn 4h. Preflop raiser checks, $140 stack bets $50, $280 stack calls, I
call, preflop raiser folds (pot is about $270).

River 4d. $90 stack bets $50, $230 stack raises to $150, I go all in,
call, call.

My boat takes down $590 pot. The small stack had hit the nut straight
with two pair on the turn (he had 5,6,7,8) and the larger stack had 7's full
of 4's.

I think a pot sized raise on the flop is still a good play and maybe my
slow play doesn't work if the players hadn't seen me bet my good hands
agressively on the flop in the past. Still I don't think I win $590 if I made a
pot sized raise on the flop. Against only one or 2 players I think I raise
pot on the flop almost every time. Against 3 or more players I think I'm
going to start slow playing top set (provided it’s A's,K's, or Q's) more
often (maybe 40-50%) unless someone convinces me that's a bad play.

[autobet]

Vary your play: usually raise, sometimes call. Calling has the advantage of disquising your hand and allowing you to save money when you get outdrawn.

[joewatch]

With the action before you, you most certainly have 1 person drawing to the nut flush and at least 1 person drawing to a straight. HU, I would consider calling here, but with this much money in the pot, I'm raising the max every time. Even if just 1 person folds, this move is +EV.

[RickyG]

I tend to agree with Joe... you also waited until you were behind to get your chips in. The problem with slowplaying here is that any card between a 3-10 can give someone a straight and it's more likely someone is going to hit if there are many people drawing. If you raise, while it doesnt guarantee you wont get drawn out on, it does clean up some outs for you if people fold, while at the same time forcing people to make a -ev call to draw. Also, once in a while your raise might inspire someone else to re-raise stupidly thus allowing you to push.

In essence, I believe that with this many people raising is the best idea. It allows other people to make the most mistakes, whereas calling puts you into situations where you can make the mistakes.

[BlueBear]

Looks like an auto-raise for me, despite the largish stacks. A lower set certainly may re-raise the pot which is excellent to get your entire stack in. I think that the benefits of disguising your fragile nut hand shouldn't be overestimated.

[gomberg]

Thanks for replies all. I'm not really a PLO player - but think I am going to try and pick it up soon (I play 5-10 and 10-20 NLH).

My friend played this hand and I told him this was for sure a raise but wanted to see if my logic was the same as some PLO people - so far it looks spot on.

If this is heads-up, does this turn into a sometimes raise, sometimes call spot? Or are there too many cards that can kill your action / let 1 opponent catch up? Is this based primarily on psychology? Thanks...

[BlueBear]

Correct, in a heads-up pot, it may be worth disguising your hand, mixing up the play and inducing largish bluffs at the latter street. Straightforward play in full table is the way to go though.

[josie_wales]

I understand the "vary your play" but these guys are opbviously drawing.

Even if they arent great draws, you are very possibly a dog against the field.

Yet, you can raise enough to put them to the test and possibly make a mistake.

And the pot is already a nice one.

By calling you are allowing the 3 drawers infinite odds....yes infinite odds....since they do not have to call anymore to hit their hand than the $30 they already called.

When you just call, you are allowing anyone that is drawing INFINITE ODDS. Yes, infinite odds.

That is...when you call, they do not need to put any more money into the pot to draw at their hand. Yes, the called $30 already...but at the moment that you smooth call...you are offering them infinite odds.

And that is a mistake.

I can guarantee that all three of them were thinking ...."please dont raise....please dont raise....please dont raise....please dont raise....please dont raise...."

And that is just what you did.

This in NOT a time to vary your play.

jw