Changing you playing style according to luck?

[Jdogg]

I don't know if this is a stupid question, and since I don't have many posts bare with me... Sometimes it seems like I can do nothing wrong and other times it seems like I can do nothing right, and I am sure that is what people mean when they say they have big swings in the bank roll. I also understand that this is poker and there is a certain degree of luck involved. My question is do any of you factor in that you have had however bad beats against you or to you blind yourself from the past and go with odds and figure it will even its self out?

I try to play blind (to luck) but at times it is hard since I feel I know the outcome, and I think that I can slow down and not get into an all in situation by doing so getting me closer to atleast itm.

Sorry if it is hard to read, but I didn't know exactly how I word things.

Justin

[JayKon]

At the early levels, math and starting hands are my God.
At the late levels, table image and my knowledge of the other players are my God.

Beyond that, if I've been lucky, I will play some marginal hands, hoping to win at a showdown to foster the false loose image the run of cards has created.

There is no luck, only probability distributions, your actions and the actions of your opponents.

[SammyKid11]

Of course you want to be blind to "luck" in every way possible. What happened with the cards on the 1, 5, or 1000 hands before has ZERO impact on what will happen the current hand. Don't play hunches...learn the math, know the math, and play the math. Reads are important at SnG's, of course...and if you have a clear read on an opponent, you should take that into account. But first learn how to play solid, mathematically +EV poker...then learn how to not deviate from that because of your impression of luck, bad beats, etc. Then you can learn advanced reading skills and begin to apply them to your game.

[Jdogg]

That is what I thought the answer was and should be, just gets frustrating at times...

Thanks!

Justin

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
That is what I thought the answer was and should be, just gets frustrating at times...

Thanks!

Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

Buy Poker Tracker, or some other stats program and record everything. Then, if you're a +EV player, it will show in the numbers after a while (say 100 SnG's).

[bluefeet]

hi jdogg, welcome.

no such thing as 'i'm due' in poker. varience is normal (sounds like a 'jumblo shrimp' type statement). human reaction to the varience (+ or -) is what partially drives the huge swings IMO. the key is maintaining a BALANCED confidence and trust in your play (non-results oriented). too often we naturally react to positive varience with profound effects. when you are running hot, you 'feel' it - the confidence boost leaves you with the euphoric feelling you can't lose. the plus side is that your senses are firing, your aggression is fine tuned, you are making confidence decisions. the problem is you can have too much of a good thing. you start opening your game up too much, taking chances that you would/should not take when things are running 'normal'. slowly your mistakes start compounding, your confidence slips, you start questioning your play, and down the slide you go. ever notice that the good time sperts seem to last much shorter than the down-swings?

visual: bottom----------normal * varience----------luckbox

the key is to remain 'centered', understanding that you will be on either side of the '*' from time to time. letting yourself ride too far to either extreme is not healthy for your game.

so, 'no'. factoring in past or current performance lines should not effect a single decision. cards have no memory. each hand unfolds randomly. apply only your poker knowledge (and yes, experience) to each tourney, session, hand...

[The Yugoslavian]

Good play is good play.

Bad play is bad play.

Variance is always a bitch.

Two thoughts that contain very important truths (and I don't like giving these ideas away too often):
[ QUOTE ]

Play the right way.


[/ QUOTE ]

-- Irieguy

[ QUOTE ]

I just get high and play.


[/ QUOTE ]

-- Frozen

Yugoslav
hint: I'm not recommending that one must get high to play well....but if it connects you to the NOW of the world...then, yes, bump the vaporizer (I'm lookin' at you StupidSucker /images/graemlins/wink.gif ).
hint #2: Now citanul can lock...as my work here is done, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

[tshort]

Just keep playing hands that give you correct odds. If you lose 20 tourneys in a row, review them and make sure you are playing every hand correctly. If you aren't making mistakes, wow, some bad luck. Sometimes you just might be overplaying a few hands or there in combination with some bad luck. Sometimes, if I go on a cold OR hot streak I will take break and make sure I'm not wavering on my strategy to make sure it is variance.

[Edit] After re-reading your post this is not what you were asking, but is simple advice we should all remember.

I think there are situations you change your play style according to luck, but don't believe it's what you're asking about. For example, you are trying to play conservative the first few levels of a tournament. You end up playing 6 of the first 12 hands because they are all good hands for the situation. You win 5 of them and only one is shown down. The table should now perceive you as loose aggressive. Now you have to be tighter on stealing future pots because the image your luck has created.

[Jdogg]

Yeah I just got poker tracker the other day, also I remember that balanced thing from Super System, thanks for reminding me .

Thanks!

Justin