AQ is an easy fold here right?

[liucipher]

hand converter's giving me a script error. this was a tough laydown as I am a chronic overplayer of AQ. good or weak?

am I correct to push over the top of the original raiser had SB folded?

***** Hand History for Game 2369710955 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13964016 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, July 15, 20:47:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 12516 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Nbraiderfan ( $1025 )
Seat 6: bitterazn ( $2210 )
Seat 9: dhout ( $2430 )
Seat 1: BaldEagle68 ( $2335 )
Trny:13964016 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to bitterazn [ Qs Ah ]
dhout folds.
BaldEagle68 raises [600].
Nbraiderfan is all-In [875]
bitterazn ???

[SammyKid11]

Well, I'm relatively inexperienced at this, but attempting to learn fast. I don't think you fold here. Original raiser is raising with a wide array of hands here, short stack is probably looking for any pair, A-high, K8+, QT+ to take a stand with (lotta stuff you beat). I'd push behind SB, you probably scare original raiser out of the hand, you almost certainly have a better chance of knocking out the short stack.

And even if the original raiser calls with a big hand and you both lose, you still started the hand with more chips than short stack, so you still get third. Maybe I'm crazy, but I push this here.

[rydazzle]

your only other option is to isolate since AQo is too weak against 2 if you think BaldEagle is on a steal. with no read on him I dont know...if he is a chronic stealer, then I isolate - if he's not I fold.

disclaimer: you'll prob get some BS about "players at the 6s blah blah blah pushing with 23o" - my thoughts are general, not so much geared for 6s...I dont play the 6s.

[bluewilde]

While the initial raiser makes it 600, that's only double the blind. With the SB under so much pressure I can't put him on a hand that's beating you. Earlier in the tourney with more players, easy fold; but here I think you push. I see short stacks making this move with any ace, QJ, KJ, KQ--lots of hands you dominate. However, I'm still worried about what UTG has. If he's been bullying a lot, easy push. If he's been tighter/playing scared, I think you're right to let it go.

So yeah, the SB call doesn't bother me cause he's under pressure to make a move. I think it depends on how many/what hands the initial raiser has been playing. If he's a loose bully, push. If he's been more cautious, his minraise probably represents a serious hand and I wouldn't risk it all on AQ. Sorry if that got confusing. Thoughts?

[ChewyMint]

I'm pushing here also. The initial raiser has enough chips where he can fold comfortably, and the odds are, you are ahead of the all-in player. You can't just call and let the initial raiser in cheap. Put some pressure on him to leave his 600 dead in the pot.

ChewyMint

[bluefeet]

me? how bout push!. would you call shorties all-in had he opened? looks like a PERFECT opportunity to isolate, and pick up a nice chunk of change...dunno if original raiser could possibly call (read dependant of course).

[liucipher]

Original raiser had been fairly tight. I watched him limp AQ, AJs, AK, and QQ all early on in the tournament. He had clearly opened up his game later on though as he had been raising every couple of orbits.

UTG raiser was short but also had been somewhat tightish.

In general, both of them struck me as able to overplay middling hands like AT but tight enough that they're staying away from A7o- and stuff.

Do people really think I can isolate if I pushed over the top? There's a crapload of money in the pot w/ Villain covering me.

[liucipher]

And I can't help being results oriented. UTG had ATs and SB had KQo. Flop was KJT.

I cried like a little girl.

I was surprised by the responses though. I thought on a bubble where it's clear someone is short and possibly about to be eliminated, you want to stand clear and avoid any sort of race situations?

What if SB and UTG's chipstacks were reversed? Fold then?

[bluefeet]

...that's the beauty of your push -- it's irregardless of your read, or his own understanding of his table-image. your telling him "hey buddy, i know your tight, and i respect your game. but i gotta monster here - i HIGHLY suggest you step down". your push is putting HIS tourney on the line at this moment. i think you'd be astonished to see what he would in fact lay down (TT, AK, maybe even JJ). put yourself in his shoes. what hand would you step in the middle of with shortie about to bubble? certainly there is some risk. AA, KK, QQ, etc. aren't going to be folded. [insert smart persons knowledge of total starting hands vs. these hands % info] -- pretty safe to say he ain't got'm. you're standing to pick up a bunch of chips, positioning yourself nicely for a 1st.

Edit: "it's irregardless of your read"...in fact it is more so BECAUSE of your read. i'd be less inclined to try this with a defiant maniac that stands to call you with any two -- thus creating the 'race' you're trying to avoid.

[hobbes9324]

The preferred term is.... "and I cried like Nancy Kerrigan"

Fold or push, I lean towards fold, because I think I play really well on the bubble, and so even if the shortie lasts, I figure I'll do OK.....

[liucipher]

I see your point about his tightness making me more inclined to push.

What if I qualified my read as that he was also something of a calling station once he was in a hand?

For example:
(1) blinds at 25/50 he limped UTG w/ AKs. 444 flop and he called a bet of 150 into a 200 pot from the SB. he called 150 on the ace turn and checked on the river. SB was another tight player that had limped in with TT.

(2) blinds at 75/150 SB minraised to 300 (w/ 615 behind him). Villain called the minraise from BB, called 300 on the flop and 15 on the river w/ Q9o and no pair.


Should have brought this up in my OP, but I got the impression Villain was not so much tight as he was passive.


Real question is, if I don't think Villain is folding, is it worth it with AQ to think I have the best hand and take a stand despite the bubble about to burst?

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
hand converter's giving me a script error. this was a tough laydown as I am a chronic overplayer of AQ. good or weak?

am I correct to push over the top of the original raiser had SB folded?

***** Hand History for Game 2369710955 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13964016 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, July 15, 20:47:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 12516 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Nbraiderfan ( $1025 )
Seat 6: bitterazn ( $2210 )
Seat 9: dhout ( $2430 )
Seat 1: BaldEagle68 ( $2335 )
Trny:13964016 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to bitterazn [ Qs Ah ]
dhout folds.
BaldEagle68 raises [600].
Nbraiderfan is all-In [875]
bitterazn ???

[/ QUOTE ]

i know i would've raised all-in in that spot. not knowing what bitterazn's hand is, he may be bluff [mini-raise alert!] stealing thinking that you won't defend your SB. all-in makes him play his hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
And I can't help being results oriented. UTG had ATs and SB had KQo. Flop was KJT.

I cried like a little girl.

I was surprised by the responses though. I thought on a bubble where it's clear someone is short and possibly about to be eliminated, you want to stand clear and avoid any sort of race situations?


[/ QUOTE ]

You just described my thoughts. Yet, the more I think about this, I like both lines. Button can fold here. I doubt he folds JJ+, AK. Just noticed this is a $5+1, which might open up his 3 way calling range. Anyway, this line of pushing has merit. There's a lot of dead chips in the pot, and a push is clearly going to isolate you with SB a good percentage of the time. And obviously, winning sets you up for the advantage ITM.

IMO, a limp at this stage from button is a very wide range of hands. If the limp had come from UTG, I think he/she is actually inviting a race (from anyone). Button will almost always call the push by SB, so let's look at the possible outcomes.

Button wins (assume hero folds), stacks look like (using position from hand in question):
UTG:2430
Button:3660
Hero:1910

SB wins (assume hero folds):
UTG: 2430
Button: 1310
SB: 2350
Hero: 1910

Argh. I don't know if this helped at all. All I think this has done is brought me back to my first assumption. I think this is a style preference. At the higher levels, I think this is an insta-push. Down on the lower levels $22s down and probably $55s down, I think you have some discretion, as the likely easiest way to make the money here is normal ABC SNG strategy, which has a high likelihood of letting the other guys battle it out.

Interesting hand.

Finally, never let the results (the flop) affect your future decisions of course.

Scuba

PS "irregardless" is not a word.

[bluefeet]

damn you scuba - i was on a roll tonight too /images/graemlins/wink.gif

ah, but wait!

"...While it is certainly a commonly heard word, its usage is considered substandard because the word is illogical. "Regardless" already means "without regard," so when we add the negative prefix "ir-," we create a double negative. In essence, we end up saying "not without regard," which means, of course, "with regard"--the opposite of what we intend. "

[ QUOTE ]
...that's the beauty of your push -- it's irregardless of your read

[/ QUOTE ]

....as you'll find in my edit (all be it misused here) it is in fact "with regard" that the chap pushes!!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif