Pete H
07-14-2005, 07:39 AM
I've been trying to calculate if my push was ok.
5 handed, blinds 50/100 (will rise before they hit me next time), I'm the small stack and SB with 425 before posting. Next smallest stack is at least 800. BB has the biggest stack, over 3000.
Folded to me and I push with K5s figuring he'll call with about 50% of hands.
Pokerstove tells me this (following range is 50.2%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.4163 % 44.02% 02.40% { K5s }
Hand 2: 53.5837 % 51.19% 02.40% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
So if I push and get called I have 46% equity of the pot. That's if I understand pokerstove's numbers properly.
My reasoning says this is how I should calculate my expected amount of chips after push:
0.5 x 525 [half of the time I win blinds without contest] + 0.5 x 0.46 x 850 [my equity of the pot when I'm called] = 460
If I fold, I have 375 chips -> push EV = 460 - 375 = 85
I'm not 100% if this, so I tried to search some info.
Found ZeeJustin's push formula that gave different answer, and after I thought this a while I noticed that there seems to be a mistake in it.
Original post is here:
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1160395&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1
The formula:
[ QUOTE ]
X= your stack size (in terms of BB, assume the BB has an equal stack or has you covered. If you have the BB covered, X = the size of the BB's stack)
C = Percent of the time you are called
W = Percent of the time you win when you're called (use poker stove to figure this out)
Your EV is then:
(1-C)1.5 + WC(X+.5) - C(1-W)(X-.5)
translated this is:
1-C = % of the time you are steal the blinds
1.5 = the amount you win when you steal the blinds
WC = the percent of time you are called and win
X+.5 = the amount you win when you are called and win
C(1-W) = the percent of time you are called and lose
X-.5 = the amount you lose when you are called and lose
[/ QUOTE ]
This formula uses win/loss percentages, so we need to add the possibility of tie before it's accurate.
This would be the correct (I hope so) formula with tie.
(1-C)1.5 + WC(X+.5) + TC(0.75) - C(1-W-T)(X-.5)
T = percentage of ties when you are called
Also, I noticed Justin uses equity percentage instead of winning percentage in his example.
[ QUOTE ]
Example: You have 32o in the SB, and your opponent will call you with 22+, 54+, 86+, T7+, J6+ Q2+ (the loose range of hands in MJ's article).
According to poker stove, 32o wins 31% of the time against this range of hands, therefore W=.31
Shove EV w/ 32o and 10x BB = -1.572 x BB
[/ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove 32o wins that range 30.06% and ties 2.18%
31.1504% is 32o's equity
I calculated Justin's example using my simple equity method:
Result: -1.54964 BB
And using updated formula with proper (if you can trust pokerstove) win/tie/lose percentages
Result: -1.54912 BB
I hope the minor differences in my results are just rounding errors as it's so much easier use the equity like I used it originally.
I know eastbay's SnGPT would calculate all this for me, but I want to be able to calculate these things myself before I even think of buying it.
So could someone check my calculations and tell me if I just made a fool of myself (wouldn't be the first or the last time).
5 handed, blinds 50/100 (will rise before they hit me next time), I'm the small stack and SB with 425 before posting. Next smallest stack is at least 800. BB has the biggest stack, over 3000.
Folded to me and I push with K5s figuring he'll call with about 50% of hands.
Pokerstove tells me this (following range is 50.2%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.4163 % 44.02% 02.40% { K5s }
Hand 2: 53.5837 % 51.19% 02.40% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
So if I push and get called I have 46% equity of the pot. That's if I understand pokerstove's numbers properly.
My reasoning says this is how I should calculate my expected amount of chips after push:
0.5 x 525 [half of the time I win blinds without contest] + 0.5 x 0.46 x 850 [my equity of the pot when I'm called] = 460
If I fold, I have 375 chips -> push EV = 460 - 375 = 85
I'm not 100% if this, so I tried to search some info.
Found ZeeJustin's push formula that gave different answer, and after I thought this a while I noticed that there seems to be a mistake in it.
Original post is here:
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1160395&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1
The formula:
[ QUOTE ]
X= your stack size (in terms of BB, assume the BB has an equal stack or has you covered. If you have the BB covered, X = the size of the BB's stack)
C = Percent of the time you are called
W = Percent of the time you win when you're called (use poker stove to figure this out)
Your EV is then:
(1-C)1.5 + WC(X+.5) - C(1-W)(X-.5)
translated this is:
1-C = % of the time you are steal the blinds
1.5 = the amount you win when you steal the blinds
WC = the percent of time you are called and win
X+.5 = the amount you win when you are called and win
C(1-W) = the percent of time you are called and lose
X-.5 = the amount you lose when you are called and lose
[/ QUOTE ]
This formula uses win/loss percentages, so we need to add the possibility of tie before it's accurate.
This would be the correct (I hope so) formula with tie.
(1-C)1.5 + WC(X+.5) + TC(0.75) - C(1-W-T)(X-.5)
T = percentage of ties when you are called
Also, I noticed Justin uses equity percentage instead of winning percentage in his example.
[ QUOTE ]
Example: You have 32o in the SB, and your opponent will call you with 22+, 54+, 86+, T7+, J6+ Q2+ (the loose range of hands in MJ's article).
According to poker stove, 32o wins 31% of the time against this range of hands, therefore W=.31
Shove EV w/ 32o and 10x BB = -1.572 x BB
[/ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove 32o wins that range 30.06% and ties 2.18%
31.1504% is 32o's equity
I calculated Justin's example using my simple equity method:
Result: -1.54964 BB
And using updated formula with proper (if you can trust pokerstove) win/tie/lose percentages
Result: -1.54912 BB
I hope the minor differences in my results are just rounding errors as it's so much easier use the equity like I used it originally.
I know eastbay's SnGPT would calculate all this for me, but I want to be able to calculate these things myself before I even think of buying it.
So could someone check my calculations and tell me if I just made a fool of myself (wouldn't be the first or the last time).