ATs in SB on bubble facing all-in, what to do? [Archive]

Bigwig

07-13-2005, 11:52 PM

Party $50

All three players were playing far too tight. Yoyola, who had been the big chip leader when we got 4-handed especially. jggt had passed on many obvious push any 2 situations, so I feel that he definitely has a hand. Converter isn't working. Sorry.

Comments as well as your vote please. Thanks.

***** Hand History for Game 2359981831 *****
400/800 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 13911963) - Wed Jul 13 23:02:51 EDT 2005
Table Table 22450 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: hooop (3165)
Seat 2: jggt21 (1780)
Seat 3: HERO (1925)
Seat 9: yoyola (3130)
HERO posts small blind (200)
yoyola posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ts, As ]
hooop folds.
jggt21 raises (1780) to 1780
jggt21 is all-In.
HERO raises (1725) to 1925
HERO is all-In.

gildwulf

07-13-2005, 11:58 PM

I don't play 50s, but this looks pretty standard at 20s and 30s.

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:01 AM

clear allin

lastchance

07-14-2005, 12:09 AM

How bad is Button here?

Jesus, I mean, Button should be pushing enough of a wide range for this to be an autocall, but your read on him makes me think otherwise...

If he pushes any ace here, clear call. Yeah, I voted fold, but doing PS calcs and other stuff, it's a call, unless Villain is really tight.

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
clear allin

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't get saucy with the player who will replace you as World Champ.

ilya

07-14-2005, 12:29 AM

I voted fold, but only because your description of the Villain makes him sound very bad-tight. Is he really bad enough to make this a fold? I dunno. It's possible. Has he passed on, like, 5 of the 6 any-2 spots he's had?

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I voted fold, but only because your description of the Villain makes him sound very bad-tight. Is he really bad enough to make this a fold? I dunno. It's possible. Has he passed on, like, 5 of the 6 any-2 spots he's had?

[/ QUOTE ]

Something like that, yeah. We were 4-handed for quite a while. My guess is something like 20 hands. Maybe more. Of the hands that were open pushed, I did it 80% of the time.

That's why I posted the hand. I KNEW this guy had something good.

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I voted fold, but only because your description of the Villain makes him sound very bad-tight. Is he really bad enough to make this a fold? I dunno. It's possible. Has he passed on, like, 5 of the 6 any-2 spots he's had?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no time where I will use a read to make a play that is so obviously sub-optimal. It's basically impossible to get such an accurate read.

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I voted fold, but only because your description of the Villain makes him sound very bad-tight. Is he really bad enough to make this a fold? I dunno. It's possible. Has he passed on, like, 5 of the 6 any-2 spots he's had?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no time where I will use a read to make a play that is so obviously sub-optimal. It's basically impossible to get such an accurate read.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was wondering.

Sincerely,

Future World Champ

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:36 AM

Also when you say he defintiely has a hand, a hand on the button with 4x the BB , even for a tight player, could mean something like K5s, A2o etc

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:41 AM

Ok I ran it...against the following range

22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

its huge +ev to the tune of 1% of EV. It's hard for me to imagine anyone being tight enough to fold any of the hands above, and if they do it should only be a few of them... I'd say its more likely they would push with more hands in this situation.

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Also when you say he defintiely has a hand, a hand on the button with 4x the BB , even for a tight player, could mean something like K5s, A2o etc

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, he was so so tight. And, he never opened pushed. Only mini raised. I was sure it was solid.

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Ok I ran it...against the following range

22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

its huge +ev to the tune of 1% of EV. It's hard for me to imagine anyone being tight enough to fold any of the hands above, and if they do it should only be a few of them... I'd say its more likely they would push with more hands in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it's settled then.

I called, fairly quickly, despite my feelings. Villain had 99 but my luckbox made two pair.

Another factor is that by winning the hand I would be in good shape to win the tourney. Probably explains the lopsided nature of the calculations.

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:49 AM

Thats not really a factor /images/graemlins/smile.gif I mean it's not really a prominent factor...your hand is almost surely the best against his range, there is dead money in the pot and if you win you are instantly in the money. If you fold, your nearest competitor likely gains 600 chips.

Matt R.

07-14-2005, 12:53 AM

What range would he have to be pushing here to make this a fold? I voted fold and I think your description threw me off.

Bigwig

07-14-2005, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What range would he have to be pushing here to make this a fold? I voted fold and I think your description threw me off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would have to be extraordinarily tight. I'm not sure that if I knew his hand was 99 that this is a fold.

curtains

07-14-2005, 12:55 AM

Some range that Im not willing to expect anyone to be tight enough for.

Matt R.

07-14-2005, 01:04 AM

Yeah... for some reason I had visions of someone only pushing big aces and medium/big pairs. That's my idea of a 'way-too-tight' player from the 10's and 20's. They're actually quite humorous to play in sometimes.

ilya

07-14-2005, 01:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range would he have to be pushing here to make this a fold? I voted fold and I think your description threw me off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would have to be extraordinarily tight. I'm not sure that if I knew his hand was 99 that this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It'd have to be something like 22+, A8+, KT+, QT+

mmbt0ne

07-14-2005, 01:18 AM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
What range would he have to be pushing here to make this a fold? I voted fold and I think your description threw me off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would have to be extraordinarily tight. I'm not sure that if I knew his hand was 99 that this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It'd have to be something like 22+, A8+, KT+, QT+

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh oh...that's really close to my range. What are you guys pushing here from the button, if I may completely derail this thread.

curtains

07-14-2005, 01:20 AM

Against the following range it's breakeven to call with ATs.

(33+,A6o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+)

Its +EV if we throw A5o into the mix, and it's huge +EV if we throw A4o into the mix. The above range really looks tighter than I can imagine someone being.

More often they will be much looser than this, thus this is a case where it's possible they will be much looser than the above range but almost impossible for them to be tighter, thus meaning you should call.

ilya

07-14-2005, 01:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range would he have to be pushing here to make this a fold? I voted fold and I think your description threw me off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would have to be extraordinarily tight. I'm not sure that if I knew his hand was 99 that this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It'd have to be something like 22+, A8+, KT+, QT+

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh oh...that's really close to my range. What are you guys pushing here from the button, if I may completely derail this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh....22+, A2+, K2+, Q8+, J9+, T9, T8, 98s, 87s, 76s....something like that. if not more.

tigerite

07-14-2005, 05:53 AM

I voted call, it seems pretty standard to me, even if he has been pretty tight. Like curtains and the others I can't believe he is tight enough to make this a fold.