View Full Version : Weak 99
nervous
07-13-2005, 04:33 PM
Party Poker 3/6 (6 max, 6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font> Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3bets, Hero caps
Flop: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB bets, Hero folds.
Final Pot:
BB is 88/25/2.7
ChicagoTroy
07-13-2005, 04:37 PM
Yep.
imported_ncray
07-13-2005, 04:53 PM
Any reads on BB? If we assume fairly liberal blind-defense 3-betting standards, say he will do this with AA-88, AK-AT, KQ-KJ. Ways of getting AA-88 (6 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 6 + 1 + 6), ways of getting AK-AT (12 + 16 + 12 + 16), ways of getting KQ-KJ (12 + 9). This is 108 combinations. You are ahead of only 88 and AQ (6 + 16 = 22 ways). Assume you call down to showdown, so it costs you 2.5BBs to win 6.75BBs, so you have to be good 27% of the time.
Against KK, JJ = 6 combinations, you have 2 outs and will improve (2/45)(43/44) + (43/45)(2/44) + (2/45)*(1/44) = 8.8% of the time. You win .5 times.
Against the other 108-22-6=80 combinations that you are behind, you have about 3.5 outs and will improve about 14.5% of the time. You win 11.6 times.
88 has 2 outs vs you and will improve 8.8% of the time
You win 5.5 times
AQ has 10 outs and will improve 25% of the time
You win 12 times
Total: .5 + 11.6 + 5.5 + 12 = 29.6
29.6/108 = 27.4% vs your pot odds of 27%
This means it would be a breakeven call to the river. If he was more liberal in 3-betting, you should definitely call. Otherwise, fold. I may have made a few mistakes along the way, as I was in a rush. Also, I've made a few assumptions in order to make these calculations.
Alobar
07-13-2005, 04:57 PM
wow
Jeff W
07-13-2005, 05:10 PM
I calldown. This opponent is obviously a maniac if those stats are accurate.
imported_ncray
07-13-2005, 05:12 PM
Oops, I didn't notice the stats on BB. Damn... Uhh, well just loosen the numbers up by a bit, which would result in a pretty easy call.
nervous
07-13-2005, 05:25 PM
Wow, that's a lot of work.
I actually didn't even look at the BB's stats while playing the hand. (Maybe I shold play less tables)
BTW, Jeff get on irc.
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