MIller Short Stack System - Busted!

[Etric]

Game Over.
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y120/Etric/bust.jpg

Questions? Comments?

[ptmusic]

Yes, I've got two questions. I'm assuming you followed the system as closely as possible, but there are two main areas of play where Ed didn't give extensive details. So,

What was your strategy for playing the blinds (preflop)?

How often did you check/fold on the flop, and why?

-ptmusic

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
Game Over.
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y120/Etric/bust.jpg

Questions? Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

No questions, but a comment, this doesn't mean anything. Noone knows if you actually played the way as described to begin with.

[razor]

Also of interest would be what he did when his stack reached 40BB+

[Rudbaeck]

It happens. My stats look like very good fixed limit stats. My real fixed limit stats are merely good, but I've suffered downswings just like this in limit twice over the last few hundred thousand hands. (And people with honest to god very good limit stats have had similar downswings.)

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
It happens. My stats look like very good fixed limit stats. My real fixed limit stats are merely good, but I've suffered downswings just like this in limit twice over the last few hundred thousand hands. (And people with honest to god very good limit stats have had similar downswings.)

[/ QUOTE ]

All that is true, and it is also true that a bankroll should probably be greater than 350bb's (hopefully it was in OP's case).

However, this is a big enough downswing over a big enough sample size to suggest that there is likely to be some problem.

Since I and others have had success (with a much smaller sample size in my case) with Ed's system, I certainly can't say that the problem is with Ed's system. It would be beneficial for all of us if OP discussed the issues others have brought up in this thread and see if there is a difference between our collective approaches to the system.

-ptmusic

[Etric]

Play blinds with the same hands as late position.

I almost never check-folded the flop.

[Etric]

I left at 30 or higher BB. I reloaded at 15BB. I bought in for 20BB.

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Play blinds with the same hands as late position.

[/ QUOTE ]
I play blinds the same as late position, but I'm not sure that's the ultimate solution. There is a positional consideration postflop, even with this system, in my opinion.

[ QUOTE ]
I almost never check-folded the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this may be your problem, if your issue is not variance.

-ptmusic

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
I left at 30 or higher BB. I reloaded at 15BB. I bought in for 20BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do the same; seems right on, although I've been experimenting with buying in for 25bb instead of 20bb at extremely loose tables (like where guys will call a 10bb preflop raise w Q4 offsuit).

-ptmusic

[sergio007]

Sorry to see you not having success with this. I have only played about 4000 hands but am winning 6 BB/100.

I play the blinds very tight, only playing hands callable from early position. I am throwing many good hands away from the SB, only playing the premiums, but it works for me so far.

After the flop, I play either very carefully or very aggressively. If I flop an overpair or TPTK then it is all in. If I don't and feel like I might be behind, I tighten up considerably. I will either check/fold, or place a small bet. I will not go all in just automatically everytime.

What Ed says about not worrying about people not calling you because you play so few hands is true and continues to surprise me. My VP$IP is only about 4.50 but I still get action. You have to be able to just fold out sometimes but you know that since you are only playing the best hands, you will get another crack and you will get a caller to pay you off.

I have only played a small amount of hands but am happy so far. I hope it turns around for you. Perhaps tighten up on your blinds by playing EP cards and not automatically pushing in on a flop every time might help you.

[12AX7]

Hi Sergio007,
So is this your complete flop bet strategy? To go all in with anything over TPTK?

Just curious. I went out and got a copy of GSIH specifically to find out about this strategy. I lost about 6 25xBB buyins in an evening of playing it at two tables.

So I'm not really impressed. Granted that's a really small sample size, but it was basically straight down!

So I have to assume, since the preflop strategy is so clearly defined in GSIH, that I must be flubbing the flop play.

Clearly, "...if you think you have the best hand, go all in.." is somewhat ill defined. I'm thinking I need a way to *decide* how likely that is.

I suppose that's just plain ol' hand reading, but I'm not certain that it can't be more fully thrashed out to come up with a decent set of "rules". (I know, "it's poker not 21", but the idea here seems to be to play NL in way that makes it your own personal slot machine.)

So any hints on what to study to get better at the flop decision in NL would be appreciated.

:-)


[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to see you not having success with this. I have only played about 4000 hands but am winning 6 BB/100.

...

After the flop, I play either very carefully or very aggressively. If I flop an overpair or TPTK then it is all in. If I don't and feel like I might be behind, I tighten up considerably. I will either check/fold, or place a small bet. I will not go all in just automatically everytime.



[/ QUOTE ]

[JKDStudent]

Suggestion/comment/whatever: Is your regular game NL? If not, and I'm not sure if this is possible, but might I suggest taking the hands that you used this strategy with, creating a PT database of just those hands, and putting it up for analysis? That way, everyone wins. You get to see if you're doing anything that contributed to the losses, and people get to see the strat in action.

[Student]

Thanks for posting about Ed Miller's SSS!

Quote: "I almost never check-folded the flop."

Just because preflop opening hands are extremely tight, and with the wonderful rules that describe how to act during various raising conditions preflop, doesn't mean one should stop thinking once the flop appears. I'm not speaking as one who is an expert poker player, since frankly I'm a beginner. I embraced SSS because I'm a beginner.

Certainly the flop changes matters, often critically. It's intellectually easy to sit on AA, but the flop alone can assure AA is meaningless in deciding which hand is going to win at showdown.

Ed Miller says something to the effect that one should be reasonably certain their hand is the best one before going all-in on the flop. But what happens if one is certain their hand isn't the best one? For one thing, your hand is no longer a SSS hand. Period. But you've already raised in such a way that the pot is big, so pot odds considerations can easily justify going on with the hand, even though you're no longer playing SSS!

You might get all the way to the river, paying very little more to see cards, and the next thing you know your hand matures to being reasonably (but not certainly!) the best hand, based on the river card (or turn card, too). You win the hand, because of your enlightened nonSSS play.

But are you permitted to take this hand into your SSS hands results? Or do you draw this hand out of the stats the very moment you conclude (after the flop is showing) that your hand quite probably isn't the best hand?

As a beginner I find myself being drawn into greater understanding of poker, simply because I'm trying to learn SSS. It's not complete, but it was never intended to be. It was intended to simplify poker to a process of 2 betting levels, rather than 4. However, it's perfectly reasonable to conclude, after the flop, that SSS rules no longer apply, and picking up pieces as well as one can, so as to recover some of these bets made to this point, is simply common sense.

Dave

[12AX7]

Hi Student,
Well, as Wilfried Jackson, a VP at Citigroup once said at a meeting we had at Station casino on Sahara...(Citi has a datacenter in Vegas) "The Devil is in the details".

So it is with SSS. The starting requirements are quite explicit.... but that second bet is the "devil in the details" now isn't it?

I agree, it's incomplete as system.

As an aside, it would seem the counter measure for this is to give no action to an SSS player once you've identified one.

Anyway, I'm with you. That flop decision seems to be at the heart of the matter.

Get it figured out and I'd say you're a step towards turning online NL HE into a personal slot machine. (Well sort of. Probably a pathetically optimistic statement to make.)


[ QUOTE ]


...SSS. It's not complete, but it was never intended to be. It was intended to simplify poker to a process of 2 betting levels, rather than 4. ...

Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

[Student]

Appreciate your kind remarks!

I don't know if you've been reading some of my posts in the Beginner's Forum, but I'm working very hard to figure out how to make poker, as you say, "into a personal slot machine." It's not all that easy, to understate a whole lot!

Yes, countering SSS known players by giving them little action is reasonable. But then again, counteracting any very tight player requires the same measures.

In time I hope to learn this wonderful game, and thanks again for the encouragement!

Dave

[Etric]

"If you have raised before the flop, then playing the flop well is easy. If everyone checks to you or you are first to act, typically move all-in"

-Ed Miller, GSIH, p132

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
"If you have raised before the flop, then playing the flop well is easy. If everyone checks to you or you are first to act, typically move all-in"

-Ed Miller, GSIH, p132

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an accurate quote. But it's only the first two sentences of the page long section called "Playing The Flop". The key word in the quote above is "typically"; Ed goes on to describe flop play. For instance, he writes "you should bet either if you think you have the best hand or if you think you have a decent chance to win immediately." In other words, there will be MANY times (though not most times) when you should NOT bet.

Granted, one page alone is going to leave many details out. That's where our experience and discussions will suss the system out, in postflop play and some of the other areas that are left a bit vague (blinds, buyin/buyout points in relation to the style of opponents, etc.).

Anyway, if I were you, I'd try tweaking your adaptation of the system before abandoning it completely.

-ptmusic

[mosquito]

[ QUOTE ]
"If you have raised before the flop, then playing the flop well is easy. If everyone checks to you or you are first to act, typically move all-in"

-Ed Miller, GSIH, p132

[/ QUOTE ]

"When you raise with TT, get called in three places, and
the flop comes KQ8 two suited, you are usually behind or
will be shortly. This may be a time to check-fold."

[Emmitt2222]

The reason is that you are just so awesome at poker (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=inet&Number=2425533&Fo rum=&Words=-Re%3A&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=2425533&Search=tr ue&where=bodysub&Name=22236&daterange=1&newerval=1 &newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post24 25533)

Seriously though, I am almost 10k hands in at 100NL with a winrate around 2BB/100. Over this time I have also run fairly poorly and I believe at least 3BB/100 is possible. I also know someone who just tried it for 10k hands at the 400NL and he is at 4BB/100. These sample sizes are quite small, but then again so is yours. I think you have to admit that at least part of the problem is you. I think the strategy works if you know how to play poker [I am mostly a limit player].

[Arbogast]

Can we get a screen cap of your pt stats? What's your VP$IP? (overall and by position?). I've used the EMSSS several times to clear bonuses, and have never had a losing record (over at least 1k hands).

It could be variance, but I suspect you are doing something systematically wrong.

[Rudbaeck]

Mine is 3.5BB/100 for 15k hands from the 200 to the 600 on Party. Started a geek project on combining SSS with Kelly Betting, the details of which might be put together at some point. Unless I melt in the summer heat first.