Three marginal decisions in one hand.

[btspider]

Bonus clearing and I thought this might be interesting. I'll throw my comments in later. What do you think about my choices?

SB is pretty typical PF (30/11) w/ some aggressive tendencies (2.5 AF). He hasn't done anything unexpected yet given his stats after about six orbits.

BB is on the maniacal side (70/33/2.5) after five orbits. Again, what stats you see is what you get with him for the most part. He has checked after raising PF and he's bet into a field after a flop gets checked through. He's shown down top pair more than his fair share, so I haven't seen enough hands to get a more specific handle on him yet.

CO's observed stats (28/11) have him on the tighter side of the spectrum.

Button is TP (18/7) and has been giving me the button all session long.

--

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

[Isura]

Preflop is fine given your reads of CO/Btn.
Flop is an easy fold.
I'd call the turn. You have excellent odds against a loose aggressive player in a medium sized pot, so not much folding equity and getting 3-bet would make me ill.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is fine given your reads of CO/Btn.
Flop is an easy fold.
I'd call the turn. You have excellent odds against a loose player in a medium sized pot, so not much folding equity and getting 3-bet would make me ill.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on all streets postflop. I'm still figuring out 6max pf play, but isn't this a pretty marginal hand to be buying the button with, esp. considering that you won't have much fold equity against the donks?

[gharp]

I think I really like that turn raise. SB's check on the turn puts him pretty squarely on two high cards and the maniac's bet means very little. By raising, you probably induce a fold from SB and clean up some A outs, plus it's also a good solid semi-bluff with your flush draw (BB might fold thinking you slow-played trips).

I think the sketchiest play is on the flop. I'd say you have about 3 outs getting 12:1. So with the implied odds supplied by a maniac in the hand, it's probably a call, but it's pretty close.

[McGahee]

I like it -
Primarily because I think SB has a better hand than BB. SB can't really call 2 cold with a heartless AK; and by getting HU with BB you set yourself up for ~11 clean outs if your hand isn't already better than his.

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I really like that turn raise. SB's check on the turn puts him pretty squarely on two high cards and the maniac's bet means very little. By raising, you probably induce a fold from SB and clean up some A outs, plus it's also a good solid semi-bluff with your flush draw (BB might fold thinking you slow-played trips).


[/ QUOTE ]
I had the same thought at first. It might be preferable to just call and raise a heart river. If you really are cleaning up the A out, the chances of an A hitting on the river are very slim.

[kapw7]

I would not (over)call the flop.
On the turn I would be wary of SB going for a C-R. I think just calling is fine. I'd prefer the turn raise HU. I personally use a lot the turn-raise play but here I would use it less times.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is fine given your reads of CO/Btn.
Flop is an easy fold.
I'd call the turn. You have excellent odds against a loose aggressive player in a medium sized pot, so not much folding equity and getting 3-bet would make me ill.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if we could get the SB to fold AK/AQ and we're ahead of the maniac a good % of the time, isn't this a consideration?

EDIT: I'm not sure we're ahead of the maniac a good % of the time, but certainly some of the time.

[Marquis]

I don't think I'd have played it that way, but that only proves that I am not as good as you are.

Nice hand.

[MrWookie47]

Preflop, I think I fold. The CO and button are tight, which is good, but I don't think there's any way in hell you're stealing the blinds against these clowns. Any data on their WtSD numbers? I guess if they fold a lot after the flop, it's more OK, but I have gotten myself into a lot of trouble in situations like this. I think A9o would be my cutoff here.

My gut said to fold the flop, but even if I only give you 3.5 outs, you're getting 12:1, so I guess peeling is OK.

I call on the turn. I don't think BB is folding, and I want SB around to pay me off should I hit the flush. You might buy some A outs with the raise, but is what you're paying for them worth it here?

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
You might buy some A outs with the raise, but is what you're paying for them worth it here?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could also be buying the best hand.

[Marquis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You might buy some A outs with the raise, but is what you're paying for them worth it here?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could also be buying the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what makes it such a good raise, IMO.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'd have played it that way, but that only proves that I am not as good as you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Looking at it here, I can inderstand your choices, but at a table I don't think I would have played it that way so for me the preflop seems way out of line. I like your line on the turn, it makes me jealous cause I understand it I just can never think of it in the heat of battle. So I raise my glass (and thank God that I don't play party cause you'd probably blow my mind, and my bankroll). Good hand sir.

[VBM]

[ QUOTE ]
I call on the turn. I don't think BB is folding, and I want SB around to pay me off should I hit the flush. You might buy some A outs with the raise, but is what you're paying for them worth it here?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are lots of potential river cards SB will try to see getting 8.5:1 + closing the turn action, but not for 2. A lot of them, you don't want him to see (J-&gt;A, non-/images/graemlins/heart.gif)

BB is maniacal and isolating him with position is lots of fun. he could be betting a 2nd best hand right or weakly made hand and your 7 outs might actually be good in addition to flush &amp; A outs.

if he calls and checks the river, spider has options to either check behind him UI (or if he spikes a 7; not sure what i'd do) or bet an improved hand.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You might buy some A outs with the raise, but is what you're paying for them worth it here?

[/ QUOTE ]

We could also be buying the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

bingo. for the turn, i think i'll have the best hand some % of the time (if SB folds). if BB always has a better hand, then the turn raise is terrible since it only cleans up 2 Ace outs. BB will not fold a better hand than mine. also, I will be checking behind on the river UI and value betting any pair.

--

for those who say fold the flop, how many outs do you think I have?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is fine given your reads of CO/Btn.
Flop is an easy fold.
I'd call the turn. You have excellent odds against a loose player in a medium sized pot, so not much folding equity and getting 3-bet would make me ill.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on all streets postflop. I'm still figuring out 6max pf play, but isn't this a pretty marginal hand to be buying the button with, esp. considering that you won't have much fold equity against the donks?

[/ QUOTE ]

PF can be folded without a second thought. i think its a very marginal raise (not sure which side of 0 EV yet /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

SB will often fold. he's not too much of a donk. button will get out of the way unless he has a great hand. and if CO can fold PF or to a flop bet, then I get a decent overlay from his dead money.

BB probably isn't going anywhere, but Ace high has showdown value against him and I have position. I was 4 tabling, but kept this one on top b/c of BB and felt like I had a decent handle on the table thus far.

[MrWookie47]

Spider listed BB as on the maniacal side, but he didn't elaborate on what crap he was betting and raising with. The hands Spider saw were top pair hands. Sure, at those stats, one would think he's got to be betting some shady stuff, but this is only over 30 hands. I think it'd be pretty easy to be running well enough to just look like a maniac, but really be a more passive player who's catching cards. For you people who say we might be buying the best hand, I'm extremely skeptical. You think BB is betting here with less than A high, medium kicker often enough? There are a lot of ways BB could have:

1. A deuce he thinks is now good that SB checked.
2. A ten he thinks is now good.
3. A PP he thinks is now good.
4. Trips which he was planning on raising here, but now that plan failed.
5. A flush that he doesn't want getting checked through.

That, to me, looks like a lot of ways we don't have the best hand. Without a specific read that this guy will bet this board with Q high compounded by the fact that his high agg. factor can be at least partially explained by catching cards, I think the chance we end up with the best hand after this raise is very small.

With that in mind, let's look at what our raise bought us. The pot is 7.5 BB. Our flush is worth about 9 outs. The board is paired, and BB might have one or more of our outs, so it might be a little less. However, I'll start out thinking that it's 9 outs. Now, if SB is still in the hand, we can't give ourselves any more than 1.5 outs for our A's, but even that might be a little high since BB is in the hand, and there's a risk of domination. If he folds, how much do we give ourselves? 3? There is a reasonable chance that BB already has a pair of A's beat. I'm inclined to think we buy about 1 out's worth of equity with our A by knocking SB out. By similar reasoning, I think we may buy ourselves about a half an out with our 7's. One and a half outs from the turn to the river, or roughly 3% equity. Three percent of this pot is 0.225 BB, which is worth 22.5% of what we paid for it. Hell, we'd need to buy ourselves almost 7 outs worth of equity (13.3%) for a raise to be worth what we paid for it. You optimists actually think we have the best hand here often enough to make up for that deficit? I don't like it. This is a much better play on the flop, where you're getting double the equity for the outs you're buying, and in larger pots, where the pot pays for it.

I guess it's not unreasonable to think that this guy might be betting a new OESD, or a new OESD+FD in which case we have the best hand, but what about the risk that BB has trips (or even a boat) and will 3bet us, making us pay a helluva lot more to draw to the same 9 (or zero, rarely) outs we had all along.

I stand by my original play. I call, and hope that SB overcalls, putting in at least one more bet should I hit the frush. The raise doesn't buy us enough to be worthwhile.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]


for those who say fold the flop, how many outs do you think I have?

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5-2 outs for the aces since a lot of times you will be dominated and 1 out max for the BR flush on a doubled board. So 3ish outs. Your effective odds are worse than 12:1 since a lot of times you will call a turn bet as well and you get reverse implied odds when your flush gets beaten by a boat

[Redd]

It's true that best case scenario, you're getting 4.5 outs on the flop: 1.5 for the flush and either 3 aces (if Villain has a big PP) or 3 sevens (if villain has AK, AQ). For redraws, board-pairing flush cards, the chance that your pair outs are already dead etc, you'd need to discount obviously.

But my biggest problem with the flop call is that you're getting very heavy reverse implied odds if you hit either of your pairs. So let's ballpark the pair outs (either the three aces or the three sevens) as 1 out. Then you're at about 2.5 outs, which seems a little thin IMHO.

[Marquis]

Hero's implied odds on the flop have to increase for the times when he can fold out a better hand by playing the turn this way. I'm not sure how to quantify it, though. Hero has 2 extra outs just because he is freakin awesome at poker.

Seriously, his hand does have SOME showdown value, as is, and it needs to be taken into account.

[2+2 wannabe]

A7 can probably be folded pf here

flop call is marginal at best

i initially loved the turn raise - but now i think it's spewing (what is the purpose of it?) - it seems to put money in the pot at a pot inequity to yourself (although it could get you a free showdown)

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
It's true that best case scenario, you're getting 4.5 outs on the flop: 1.5 for the flush and either 3 aces (if Villain has a big PP) or 3 sevens (if villain has AK, AQ). For redraws, board-pairing flush cards, the chance that your pair outs are already dead etc, you'd need to discount obviously.

But my biggest problem with the flop call is that you're getting very heavy reverse implied odds if you hit either of your pairs. So let's ballpark the pair outs (either the three aces or the three sevens) as 1 out. Then you're at about 2.5 outs, which seems a little thin IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

just some things to consider:

the board can't 4-flush and pair at the same time. a doubled paired board only hurts me if I have the best Ace. my pair outs are only dead if BB has an 8 or SB has AA/88/TT. also notice if BB has A2, I still have clean Ace outs for a split.

i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

another thing to consider is that sometimes it will be checked to me on the turn and i'll take a free card w/ my likely 3 clean pair outs. its 3 since i'd expect either player to bet the turn with a pair (i am after all expecting a turn bet with less than a pair occasionally from the LAG).

[MrWookie47]

Have you seen him bet with &lt; a pair? Sure, his VPIP and agg. factor are high, but your original read said you had only seen top pairs from him. What else had you seen him bet? Flush draws and OESDs? Gutshots? Bottom pair? A high? Nine high?

Depending on your answer, this might change my opinion of your raise.

[kapw7]

I don't think I've managed to follow your reasoning
So how many outs do you think you have?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you seen him bet with &lt; a pair? Sure, his VPIP and agg. factor are high, but your original read said you had only seen top pairs from him. What else had you seen him bet? Flush draws and OESDs? Gutshots? Bottom pair? A high? Nine high?

Depending on your answer, this might change my opinion of your raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a bit of a mouse. if someone else is aggressive, he'll often call w/ as little as one overcard. he did cap a flop HU w/ an OESD and he has checked a few flops w/o a pair after PFR'ing and then bet the turn UI once it was checked through.

the pots that I didn't see his cards were often small, either b/c he pushed someone out or folded on the river (multiway).

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK isn't folding when the ace hits, but AK isn't folding you, either. You'd still see a showdown if your ace hit, I presume? If so, it seems you'd be paying 2BBs for hand that's second best a good amount of the time. Ditto if you decide to showdown a paired 7 versus KK/QQ/JJ/TT; and Villain might fold AK/AQ in this case and not pay you off.

edit: Considering we count 3 aces as about 1.5 outs on most boards, would you think that it's unreasonable to count them as 1 out here?

[MrWookie47]

Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

at the time yes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i think its a very marginal decision. i cannot produce anything that will make it a landslide victory for the raise camp. plus i had about 5 seconds to decide. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SB sure looks like he has 2 overcards. I'd sure fold two overcards facing two bets on the turn. BB sure has some pretty funky numbers and prior actions. once shown weakness, i've seen lots of maniacs bet here with nothing but a flush draw. its probable that he is such a maniac. that was my thought process.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure i see how i have reverse implied odds with my pairs.. especially the Aces. KK isn't check-folding a turn Ace and I'm not going to raise a turn bet if an Ace does drop. so i will get paid off somewhat when i catch while not spewing if I am still behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK isn't folding when the ace hits, but AK isn't folding you, either. You'd still see a showdown if your ace hit, I presume? If so, it seems you'd be paying 2BBs for hand that's second best a good amount of the time. Ditto if you decide to showdown a paired 7 versus KK/QQ/JJ/TT; and Villain might fold AK/AQ in this case and not pay you off.

edit: Considering we count 3 aces as about 1.5 outs on most boards, would you think that it's unreasonable to count them as 1 out here?

[/ QUOTE ]

vs just SB i think either my 7's are clean or my aces are clean unless he has AA or 88 on the flop. when BB calls the flop, he has just about any two cards here. he'd call w/ an 8 (to raise later), he'd call with a 2, he'd call w/ Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif5o probably. so BB really doesn't affect my outs negatively too much since he also produces a payoff overlay. i'm not putting more $$ in the pot unless I improve.. so its very unlikely that I improve while he improves even more.

when you discount overcard outs by 1/2 in multiway pots, its generally when you have an AK type hand and you are saying that when you catch, you will likely only win one half of the time (via reverse domination, being up against two pair+ already, or a river redraw). here, my pair outs are roughly discounted by half for an entirely different reason. w/ fewer to the flop and more specific action, we can put the opponents on more specific ranges than in a multiway pot.

roughly the #'s i'd come up with post analysis would be 1.25 outs for the bd flush and 2-ish outs for my pairs. with some potential for a free card and zero potential for getting trapped for more pets, I made the loose call.

[VBM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmmm.

Well, that definitely helps your case, but I'm still not convinced. Do you really think you'll be buying the best hand often enough to warrant the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

at the time yes /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i think its a very marginal decision. i cannot produce anything that will make it a landslide victory for the raise camp. plus i had about 5 seconds to decide. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SB sure looks like he has 2 overcards. I'd sure fold two overcards facing two bets on the turn. BB sure has some pretty funky numbers and prior actions. once shown weakness, i've seen lots of maniacs bet here with nothing but a flush draw. its probable that he is such a maniac. that was my thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, aside from raise PF, i think i'd play this the same as you at the time; just trying to push out SB and maybe get BB to myself.

There are some other points i'd add:
1. SB does look like he's holding overcards and folding a better hand would be great.
2. You also have maybe not much, but some fold equity vs BB with your turn raise on a flushy board. Not to mention, BB could easily be trying to bluff/semi-bluff here. If BB 3bets the turn, it gets hairy...
3. Your river action, if it gets that far, is pretty easy as unless BB has a monster, he's going to check most hands to you.
4. Something else here; it'd be weird, but SB may still come along if he's got the J-&gt;K/images/graemlins/heart.gif; thinking spider's got Tx and a rivered flush wins...in which case he's in for an unpleasant surprise...