How good will Bogut be?

[judgesmails]

I am a casual Bucks fan and pay almost no attention to NCAA basketball. Therefore I don't know what to expect from Bogut.

What current or former NBA player will Bogut's career resemble? Will his addition help the Bucks become respectable within 2 years?

[J.R.]

you're looking at pau gasol - talented offensive lyplaying back to basket and facing it but athleticism not outstanding, little soft on D -

mix with brad miller -can shot a little for the outside, great passer, and can rebound-

but unlike miller its not clear bogut will be good defensively, he doesn't block shots well for 7" and is slow doubling/helping, he kinda smothered one guy in college and had decent defenders on his team. his ft%, while not shaq bad, isn't what it could be given his talent, he's like 70ish.

but he could be in 4-22ish pts and 7-12ish rbs a game range. you need tj ford healthy and michael redd in uniform to be a contender for 7-8 seed in the east i think.

[Aytumious]

Bogut honestly reminds me the most of Arvydas Sabonis. Good size at 7'1 255.

Offense:

Will already be one of the best passing big men in the league, if not the best. Can score with the left or right down low. Has good form on his jumper and can even shoot all the way out to the 3, though he won't be camped out there very much. He has a very high basketball IQ and does all the little things well (box out, set good screens, establish position down low, etc.) FT percentage needs to go up a bit.

Defense:

Not really a shot blocker. His on the ball defense is decent because he has good footwork and he's tough, but his footspeed is lacking which could hurt on pick and rolls and guarding smaller big men. His rebounding is excellent and he boxes out well.

I think he's going to be a very good pro, but he will need to be on the right team. If the bucks resign Redd, with Ford coming back and the trade for Welsch, they should battle for a playoff spot next year. Of course, they need a coach, but it appears they will sign either Flip Saunders or Eric Musselman, both of whom will do a good job and are a huge upgrade from Porter.

[college_boy]

Bogut is not even close to the player Arvydas Sabonis was. Bogut will more like that big white guy from Indiana awhile back. He'll be solid for a lot of years but won't change a franchise.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Bogut is not even close to the player Arvydas Sabonis was. Bogut will more like that big white guy from Indiana awhile back. He'll be solid for a lot of years but won't change a franchise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have no idea who you are referring to here. What white guy from Indiana?

Also, the OP asked for players that Bogut reminds you of and I think his all around floor game most resembles Sabonis, which isn't really a stretch IMO.

I'd also imagine the view of Bogut is all over the map. I think he's the best college big man since Duncan, but there have been a dearth of big men in the draft lately so that's not saying a whole lot.

[bugstud]

I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

[Aytumious]

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I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

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Yeah, I'd agree with that. I only saw Sabonis after his injuries. I think Bogut has a bigger upside than Miller, and a much better back to the basket game.

It will be interesting to see how he fares against bigger men night in and night out. I've liked him since the Olympics and he's done nothing to change my impression of him.

[bugstud]

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I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

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Yeah, I'd agree with that. I only saw Sabonis after his injuries. I think Bogut has a bigger upside than Miller, and a much better back to the basket game.

It will be interesting to see how he fares against bigger men night in and night out. I've liked him since the Olympics and he's done nothing to change my impression of him.

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do you think he has KG-type upside?

[Aytumious]

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I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

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Yeah, I'd agree with that. I only saw Sabonis after his injuries. I think Bogut has a bigger upside than Miller, and a much better back to the basket game.

It will be interesting to see how he fares against bigger men night in and night out. I've liked him since the Olympics and he's done nothing to change my impression of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you think he has KG-type upside?

[/ QUOTE ]

God no! But I do think he can be a very efficient player who in his prime could be a 22 and 10 guy with around 4 assists. He's remarkably skilled for such a young player.

He could easily be Duncan lite in that you run the offense through him, he makes good decisions with the ball, and when he does shoot its a high percentage shot. He's just not the defender Duncan is.

He's also a much better athlete than people give him credit for. His vertical was 33 inches which was only 1.5 less than Marvin Williams. 33 is nuts for such a big guy. He also had better agility scores than Okafor from last year, which is pretty impressive, though Emeka isn't the most smooth out on the court.

[bugstud]

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I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'd agree with that. I only saw Sabonis after his injuries. I think Bogut has a bigger upside than Miller, and a much better back to the basket game.

It will be interesting to see how he fares against bigger men night in and night out. I've liked him since the Olympics and he's done nothing to change my impression of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you think he has KG-type upside?

[/ QUOTE ]

God no! But I do think he can be a very efficient player who in his prime could be a 22 and 10 guy with around 4 assists. He's remarkably skilled for such a young player.

He could easily be Duncan lite in that you run the offense through him, he makes good decisions with the ball, and when he does shoot its a high percentage shot. He's just not the defender Duncan is.

He's also a much better athlete than people give him credit for. His vertical was 33 inches which was only 1.5 less than Marvin Williams. 33 is nuts for such a big guy. He also had better agility scores than Okafor from last year, which is pretty impressive, though Emeka isn't the most smooth out on the court.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was kinda my point, if he has that kind of athletic talent, where exactly does the upside end?

[Aytumious]

I see your point. As I indicated in my post, I think Duncan type play is the absolute maximum for Andrew. Garnett is freaky athletic in terms of length, size, and explosiveness. Bogut can certainly get up and he has some great size, but he's not an explosive athlete. But neither is Duncan.

My main joy in sports comes from scouting players and seeing how well my projections match their careers. I really think Bogut has a chance to be a very special player but it's very hard to project him out in terms of max potential until I've seen him play a few games against NBA type big men. I'd say his max career line would be a very efficient 24-12-5 and a few blocks. More realistically he could string together some 20-10-4-2 seasons with a very high FG% and not a lot of turnovers. The nice thing about his game is that his number are not hollow; he certainly does the little things that help you win. It will be fun to watch him grow.

[Aces McGee]

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Bogut is not even close to the player Arvydas Sabonis was. Bogut will more like that big white guy from Indiana awhile back. He'll be solid for a lot of years but won't change a franchise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Bogut is a combination of Sabonis and Rik Smits, who I'm assuming you are talking about. He's got Arvydas' passing ability and Smits' range.

I don't think people are giving enough credit to his toughness. He's not a banger, no, but he's excelled in international competition and played last year at Utah with two or three guys draped all over him. He doesn't back down, either.

-McGee

[Aytumious]

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I think Bogut is a combination of Sabonis and Rik Smits, who I'm assuming you are talking about. He's got Arvydas' passing ability and Smits' range.

I don't think people are giving enough credit to his toughness. He's not a banger, no, but he's excelled in international competition and played last year at Utah with two or three guys draped all over him. He doesn't back down, either.

-McGee

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Toughness is one of the things that really stands out about him. Plus, although he can step outside, the overwhelming majority of his points came off back to the basket post moves and offensive rebounds. He's no Smits jump shooter and he's no Vlade Divac flopper, he's a fighter down low.

If anything he's a little too physical and he'll probably pick up some really cheap fouls when he first gets into the league because of it.

[MoreWineII]

I don't think he'll ever justify being a #1 pick.

[IronDragon1]

He'll stuggle mightly against big men who can match him in the agility and ability down low he had over everyone else in the nation while at Utah.

If his career follows the best possible path it can he'll be a serviceable big man(15/7.5 as a starter) on mediocre/bad teams

It certainly doesn't help that he's now a team whose best player is simply the poor man's Jerry Stackhouse

[Aytumious]

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He'll stuggle mightly against big men who can match him in the agility and ability down low he had over everyone else in the nation while at Utah.

If his career follows the best possible path it can he'll be a serviceable big man(15/7.5 as a starter) on mediocre/bad teams

It certainly doesn't help that he's now a team whose best player is simply the poor man's Jerry Stackhouse

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I think you are severely discounting how well he has played in international competition. If scouts actually thought his ceiling was 15 and 7 there is no way he would be the #1 pick. He'll probably average 12-14 and 8 his rookie year at the age of 20.

[Clarkmeister]

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He'll probably average 12-14 and 8 his rookie year at the age of 20.

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Huh? That would make him maybe the best statistical center in the league his rookie year. Averaging a near triple double??? 13-8-3 is far more likely and would still be acceptible.

[Aytumious]

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He'll probably average 12-14 and 8 his rookie year at the age of 20.

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Huh? That would make him maybe the best statistical center in the league his rookie year. Averaging a near triple double??? 13-8-3 is far more likely and would still be acceptible.

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That's 12 to 14 points and 8 boards, Clark. What you posted is exactly what I am thinking as well. A 12-14-8 line would be insanity, and only Deron Williams has that kind of potential. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Clarkmeister]

Ah, my misunderstanding. I saw those numbers and my eyeballs popped out of my head. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PokerProdigy]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a casual Bucks fan and pay almost no attention to NCAA basketball. Therefore I don't know what to expect from Bogut.

What current or former NBA player will Bogut's career resemble? Will his addition help the Bucks become respectable within 2 years?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read other peoples replies yet, but I have a feeling most of them will probably tell you that Bogut is REALLY GOOD. However, I don't know if he'll be any good in the pros. Bogut could become a decent-good center, but he could also be a huge disappointment and play like Shawn Bradley. Sometimes those tall, skinny guys just SUCK at the pro level.

[Aytumious]

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[ QUOTE ]
I am a casual Bucks fan and pay almost no attention to NCAA basketball. Therefore I don't know what to expect from Bogut.

What current or former NBA player will Bogut's career resemble? Will his addition help the Bucks become respectable within 2 years?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read other peoples replies yet, but I have a feeling most of them will probably tell you that Bogut is REALLY GOOD. However, I don't know if he'll be any good in the pros. Bogut could become a decent-good center, but he could also be a huge disappointment and play like Shawn Bradley. Sometimes those tall, skinny guys just SUCK at the pro level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kevin Garnett is one tall skinny guy who truly blows.

[PokerProdigy]

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Kevin Garnett is one tall skinny guy who truly blows.

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Yeah, thats true, LOL /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Honestly though, I think that's different because KG is an athlete, where Bogut is more of a center. I don't even think you can compare Bogut to KG because KG can bring the ball up, post up, hit the 15 foot jumper, take people of the dribble, explode/slash through the lane, etc... Bogut can mainly just post up which will definitely NOT be as easy once he gets to the NBA because the competetion (especially at the center level (which by the way KG is NOT a center)) is much better. So maybe I should reprase my answer to, "sometimes those tall skinny white guys from Utah are way over-rated and never really cut it in the pros." Some examples of this are Shawn Bradley (from BYU) and Keith Vanhorn (Utah). I even heard many of the NBA analysts during the draft say the Bogut reminds them of Luc Longley. Now don't get me wrong because Luc did ok in the pros, but he also have MJ (and many others good players that made it easier) on that team. Would you take Luc Longley as a 1st pick in the draft? All I'm saying is that he MIGHT NOT be worthy of the #1 pick, because he could very well struggle in the pros. So don't be suprised if he flops in the pros because MANY CENTERS get alot of "hype" during college and really underperform in the pros, so all I am saying is that I am a little skeptical and must "see it to believe it."

[Aytumious]

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Kevin Garnett is one tall skinny guy who truly blows.

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Yeah, thats true, LOL /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Honestly though, I think that's different because KG is an athlete, where Bogut is more of a center. I don't even think you can compare Bogut to KG because KG can bring the ball up, post up, hit the 15 foot jumper, take people of the dribble, explode/slash through the lane, etc... Bogut can mainly just post up which will definitely NOT be as easy once he gets to the NBA because the competetion (especially at the center level (which by the way KG is NOT a center)) is much better. So maybe I should reprase my answer to, "sometimes those tall skinny white guys from Utah are way over-rated and never really cut it in the pros." Some examples of this are Shawn Bradley (from BYU) and Keith Vanhorn (Utah). I even heard many of the NBA analysts during the draft say the Bogut reminds them of Luc Longley. Now don't get me wrong because Luc did ok in the pros, but he also have MJ (and many others good players that made it easier) on that team. Would you take Luc Longley as a 1st pick in the draft? All I'm saying is that he MIGHT NOT be worthy of the #1 pick, because he could very well struggle in the pros. So don't be suprised if he flops in the pros because MANY CENTERS get alot of "hype" during college and really underperform in the pros, so all I am saying is that I am a little skeptical and must "see it to believe it."

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I wouldn't compare Bogut to Garnett as a player, I was simply pointing out your logic that skinny dudes generally don't play well isn't a very sound one.

Any analyst or even casual fan who has seen these men play and then compares Bogut to either Longley or Van Horn really doesn't know what they are talking about.

[Phoenix1010]

Does anyone think race, or color rather, plays a role in how this guy is being judged? Most of the comparisons (Pau Gasol, Rik Smits, Arvydas Sabonis, Brad Miller, Keith Van Horn, Luc Longley; hell, even I said he'll be the next Christian Laettner) would seem to indicate that it does. I think it might be a case of related characteristics rather than racial bias. Thoughts?

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone think race, or color rather, plays a role in how this guy is being judged? Most of the comparisons (Pau Gasol, Rik Smits, Arvydas Sabonis, Brad Miller, Keith Van Horn, Luc Longley; hell, even I said he'll be the next Christian Laettner) would seem to indicate that it does. I think it might be a case of related characteristics rather than racial bias. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, if Bogut were black but had the same skill set and athleticism people would be floored by how advanced his game is at the age of 20 and would rave about his basketball IQ. That being said, he was still the first pick in the draft, but some of the comparisons are just idiotic. Keith Van Horn is a small forward, Luc Longley was half as skilled, and Laettner really didn't have much of a post game.

[MoreWineII]

Some of both, I won't lie.

[Aytumious]

David Aldridge on the Bogut race issue:

"There will be black people who say that the Bucks picked Utah forward Andrew Bogut No. 1 overall in Tuesday night's NBA draft because he's white, and Milwaukee is a very white town.

Yeah, and so what if they did?

Bogut isn't a stiff. A kid doesn't win college player of the year honors across the board and average 20.4 points and 12.2 rebounds in a tough conference, playing inside and outside, and lead an international team to the junior world championships title if he can't play.

The black general manager of the Hawks, Billy Knight, would have been more than happy to take Bogut with the second pick if Milwaukee had taken North Carolina's Marvin Williams first.

And if Bogut's ethnicity - he is Croatian - helps the Bucks sell tickets in a town with a large Croatian population, good for Milwaukee. If kids in this town want to emulate hometown hero Stephon Marbury, who made it out of Coney Island, why can't kids on the south side of Milwaukee have one of their own to look up to?

But Bogut - as good as anybody in the draft - is compared to Luc Longley instead of, say, Tim Duncan. Why?

It's just plain lazy to put Bogut's game side-by-side with Longley's because they're both white and Australian. As Bogut put it himself Monday, "My vertical is one inch less than Marvin Williams, and you guys call him 'Superfreak.'"

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
David Aldridge on the Bogut race issue:

"There will be black people who say that the Bucks picked Utah forward Andrew Bogut No. 1 overall in Tuesday night's NBA draft because he's white, and Milwaukee is a very white town.

Yeah, and so what if they did?

And if Bogut's ethnicity - he is Croatian - helps the Bucks sell tickets in a town with a large Croatian population, good for Milwaukee. If kids in this town want to emulate hometown hero Stephon Marbury, who made it out of Coney Island, why can't kids on the south side of Milwaukee have one of their own to look up to?


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Oh man do I hate this. Encouraging management decisions based on race? I love how blase the writing is. It's too infuriating to even bother arguing against.

[Aytumious]

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[ QUOTE ]
David Aldridge on the Bogut race issue:

"There will be black people who say that the Bucks picked Utah forward Andrew Bogut No. 1 overall in Tuesday night's NBA draft because he's white, and Milwaukee is a very white town.

Yeah, and so what if they did?

And if Bogut's ethnicity - he is Croatian - helps the Bucks sell tickets in a town with a large Croatian population, good for Milwaukee. If kids in this town want to emulate hometown hero Stephon Marbury, who made it out of Coney Island, why can't kids on the south side of Milwaukee have one of their own to look up to?


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man do I hate this. Encouraging management decisions based on race? I love how blase the writing is. It's too infuriating to even bother arguing against.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not clear to me that is what he is trying to say in the article, though I can see how it could be read that way. You did, afterall, take out some other important points that he makes, such as Bogut being worth the #1 and that Billy Knight would have loved to have him at #2.

I think the main point he is making is that the Bucks didn't simply take the white boy, but that clearly it could work out for them that he is white for marketing reasons.

[Phoenix1010]

I left out the parts that I agreed with, because I didn't want to make it seem like I hated everything he said. I understand completely what he was trying to do: point out all of the basketball-related reasons why it was a good pick, and then casually slip in the point about how his being white is just an added benefit. Unfourtunately, he goofed. His points do not follow each other. He starts out the whole thing by saying that it's ok if the Bucks chose Bogut because he's white. There's no coming back from that. He later backtracks and tries to make it seem like his point is that there's nothing wrong with the Bucks benefitting from Bogut's whiteness. That doesn't change the fact that he started out his essay by saying "hey, so what if an NBA team makes management decisions based on race?"

The point is that race should not be a factor at all in any decisions by professional sports teams, or any organizations in general. No matter how slickly he tried to slip it in, he was trying to make a case for racism in sports.

If he wanted his points to be congruent and avoid that pitfall, his first sentence should have been as follows:

"There will be black people who say that the Bucks will benefit from their sound decision to draft Utah forward Andrew Bogut No. 1 overall in Tuesday night's NBA draft because he's white, and Milwaukee is a very white town.

Yeah, and so what if they do?"

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
I left out the parts that I agreed with, because I didn't want to make it seem like I hated everything he said. I understand completely what he was trying to do: point out all of the basketball-related reasons why it was a good pick, and then casually slip in the point about how his being white is just an added benefit. Unfourtunately, he goofed. His points do not follow each other. He starts out the whole thing by saying that it's ok if the Bucks chose Bogut because he's white. There's no coming back from that. He later backtracks and tries to make it seem like his point is that there's nothing wrong with the Bucks benefitting from Bogut's whiteness. That doesn't change the fact that he started out his essay by saying "hey, so what if an NBA team makes management decisions based on race?"

The point is that race should not be a factor at all in any decisions by professional sports teams, or any organizations in general. No matter how slickly he tried to slip it in, he was trying to make a case for racism in sports.

If he wanted his points to be congruent and avoid that pitfall, his first sentence should have been as follows:

"There will be black people who say that the Bucks will benefit from their sound decision to draft Utah forward Andrew Bogut No. 1 overall in Tuesday night's NBA draft because he's white, and Milwaukee is a very white town.

Yeah, and so what if they do?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point. The "Yeah, and so what if they did?" line in the context he put it kind of ruins the rest of his article, despite any good points that he made. In fact, he could have completely omitted that line and his article would have made perfect sense.

[PokerProdigy]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I wouldn't compare Bogut to Garnett as a player, I was simply pointing out your logic that skinny dudes generally don't play well isn't a very sound one.

Any analyst or even casual fan who has seen these men play and then compares Bogut to either Longley or Van Horn really doesn't know what they are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean that "skinny" people can't play basketball, and in fact the best basketball players are usually skinny. I meant players with Bogut's build, cordination, etc...

I was listening to the analysts on ESPN (Stephen A. Smith, Greg Anthony, Tim Langler, etc...) and they said that Bogut reminds them of a Luc Longley. They probably also think he is better than Luc though, but I still think that he could easily wind up as an overrated player. Even Yao Ming has underachieved what he was "supposed too" and he is one of the best centers currently playing. My point is that he could easily (and in my opinion this is VERY PROBABLE) become one of those players that you look back and think "What happened? He was supposed to be SO good?" Just like a Christian Latner or a Kwame Brown (sorry if I butchered the spelling on the names /images/graemlins/grin.gif). But that's what the draft is always about anyway, because you never know who's really gonna be any good at the next level, for example Michael Jordan was picked 3rd in the NBA draft when he entered the league.

[Aytumious]

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Of course I wouldn't compare Bogut to Garnett as a player, I was simply pointing out your logic that skinny dudes generally don't play well isn't a very sound one.

Any analyst or even casual fan who has seen these men play and then compares Bogut to either Longley or Van Horn really doesn't know what they are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean that "skinny" people can't play basketball, and in fact the best basketball players are usually skinny. I meant players with Bogut's build, cordination, etc...

I was listening to the analysts on ESPN (Stephen A. Smith, Greg Anthony, Tim Langler, etc...) and they said that Bogut reminds them of a Luc Longley. They probably also think he is better than Luc though, but I still think that he could easily wind up as an overrated player. Even Yao Ming has underachieved what he was "supposed too" and he is one of the best centers currently playing. My point is that he could easily (and in my opinion this is VERY PROBABLE) become one of those players that you look back and think "What happened? He was supposed to be SO good?" Just like a Christian Latner or a Kwame Brown (sorry if I butchered the spelling on the names /images/graemlins/grin.gif). But that's what the draft is always about anyway, because you never know who's really gonna be any good at the next level, for example Michael Jordan was picked 3rd in the NBA draft when he entered the league.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the future I'd recommend you listen to scouts when looking at the future potential of players rather talking heads. Smith and Anthony clearly didn't know very much about the players in the draft. They constantly deferred and referred to the opinion of Jay Bilas, the resident scout of the group, who thinks that Bogut will be a very good player and top 5 center in the league. You'd be hard pressed to find a scout who doesn't agree with that assesment. You could easily find a misinformed media type who does.

Incidentally, it's pretty clear you've never seen Bogut play since he is extraordinarily coordinated for such a large man and he tested out as a better athlete than Emeka Okafor, last years rookie of the year.

[PokerProdigy]

[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, it's pretty clear you've never seen Bogut play since he is extraordinarily coordinated for such a large man and he tested out as a better athlete than Emeka Okafor, last years rookie of the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you're right that I have not seen Bogut play a whole lot. It's just that I am not convinced he's gonna be great at the pro level yet. Don't get me wrong though because I am also not trying to say that Bogut will be a bad pro player. It's just that I am not yet convinced and need to see it to believe it. If you're about 7 feet tall, have a little bit of cordination, and work hard you can definitely be VERY EFFECTIVE at the college level, but that doesn't neccessarily transfer to the NBA. We've seen it time and time again where players that are supposed to be great who don't do very well in the NBA. Duke is constantly criticized for having GREAT college players who really underperform at the pro level, even if you just look at the last few years you'll see guys who were supposed to be NBA superstars such as Battier, Dunleavy, and Latener.

My point is just that you never know how well someone will be in the pros when they're drafted. And this statement seems to apply especially to centers. So the bottom line (IMO) is that I will have to see how well Bogut does his first few years (more realistically though we will actually be able to tell in his 1st year) in the pros to assess whether or not he lived up to the hype.

[bugstud]

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Incidentally, it's pretty clear you've never seen Bogut play since he is extraordinarily coordinated for such a large man and he tested out as a better athlete than Emeka Okafor, last years rookie of the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you're right that I have not seen Bogut play a whole lot. It's just that I am not convinced he's gonna be great at the pro level yet. Don't get me wrong though because I am also not trying to say that Bogut will be a bad pro player. It's just that I am not yet convinced and need to see it to believe it. If you're about 7 feet tall, have a little bit of cordination, and work hard you can definitely be VERY EFFECTIVE at the college level, but that doesn't neccessarily transfer to the NBA. We've seen it time and time again where players that are supposed to be great who don't do very well in the NBA. Duke is constantly criticized for having GREAT college players who really underperform at the pro level, even if you just look at the last few years you'll see guys who were supposed to be NBA superstars such as Battier, Dunleavy, and Latener.

My point is just that you never know how well someone will be in the pros when they're drafted. And this statement seems to apply especially to centers. So the bottom line (IMO) is that I will have to see how well Bogut does his first few years (more realistically though we will actually be able to tell in his 1st year) in the pros to assess whether or not he lived up to the hype.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you saw the ncaas you got to witness some ridiculous passing exhibitions.

[Aytumious]

Just to give you a better idea behind why he was the #1 pick and why he is likely to succeed, I'll explain his career path. People didn't just say, "gee, that kid from Utah had a nice year, let's take him!"

Scouts really first took notice of Bogut at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, where he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg) while winning the MVP. Basically, the best talent under the age of 19 from around the world played in that tournament, with guys like Deron Williams and J.J. Redick playing for the US. At that point he likely would have been a lottery picked based on the articles I read about him.

Instead, Bogut went to Utah. Scouts were obviously interested in how he'd play, and a few articles I read indicated that he could be a top 5 pick if he continued building on what he showed at the World Junior's. Unfortunately, he didn't have a great year and ended up averaging 13 and 10. Good, but not what was expected. At that time, his NBA stock had dropped sharply so he decided to stay in school.

During that summer he played for the Australian Olympic squad and played quite well. His team finished 9th, but Bogut played well considering he was only 19 and he ended up averaging 14 and 9. He had 11 and 8 vs. Team USA -- mostly vs. Duncan -- and had a very nice game vs. Lithuania, scoring 21 and grabbing 9 boards. Obviously, the scouts took notice of his performance. I read one article before the 2004 season that stated Bogut looked like a different player in the Olympics and that if he carried that over to Utah, he'd be a top pick in the 05 draft.

Well, he did carry it over and he averaged 20 and 12, garnering player of the year awards while leading his rather mediocre Utah team to the sweet 16. Scouts were sold and he ended up being the #1 pick.

Obviously, I've been following his career for awhile now, but it's really not a huge shock that he was the #1 pick this year. He would have been a lottery pick back in 2003, and after showing such maturation in the Olympics and in his sophomore season at Utah, he was the no brainer #1 pick. He's only 20 and I expect him to have a great NBA career, mainly because of his work ethic and determination. He really has a great track record of success and a lot of experience in international play. Compare his record to Marvin Williams and you'll see what I mean. Strangely, he's the #1 pick and a lot of people are underestimating him.

[MoreWineII]

Why are you taking scout's words as gospel? You realize they miss ALL THE TIME, right?

Nobody knows that the kid is going to do (even the almighty scouts), we're all just guessing at this point.

[judgesmails]

As a former residient of Wisconsin, and frequent vistior to Milwuakee - I find it absurd to suggest that Milwaukee is a "white" town. People in that part of the world are probably as racially indifferent as anywhere I have ever lived. And, the population is very diverse.

In fact, compare the racial diversity of Milwaukee with Chicago on the US Census website and you will be surprised.

Not to hijack my own thread, but the suggestion of the analysts you all cite are absurd not only because they are untrue, but also because they do not make any sense from a franchise or basketball standpoint.

[PokerProdigy]

Just because you're a number one pick in the draft doesn't mean you'll wind up being a good or great player. I am not saying the scouts don't know what they're talking about, it's just that nobody knows for sure who'll be a great pro player. Year after year you see lottery picks that don't play all that well in the pros. I was watching ESPN the other day and I heard them say that Kwame Brown has been asked not to come back to the Wizards, and yet a couple years ago they were hyping him up and Washington took him #1 in the draft. Also, Yao is a good player, but he is not yet a great player. But when he was drafted everybody was going crazy about how this guy was gonna be such a great player. And there's also Darco Milicik who we haven't seen play very much because he plays for a great team and under a coach who wants to give him some time to grow. Yet, I read articles before that draft where some people where saying he might be better than Lebron and many others saying that he is NOT better than Lebron but IS better than Carmelo. Only time will tell but it's possible that he could wind up a mediocre player at the pro level. All I am saying is that Bogut may wind up a mediocre player in the NBA, and we'll just have to wait and see. Do you think he is the best player in the rookie class? Because I would NOT be at all suprised if someone besides Bogut snatches up next year's rookie of the year award.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to give you a better idea behind why he was the #1 pick and why he is likely to succeed, I'll explain his career path. People didn't just say, "gee, that kid from Utah had a nice year, let's take him!"

Scouts really first took notice of Bogut at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, where he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg) while winning the MVP. Basically, the best talent under the age of 19 from around the world played in that tournament, with guys like Deron Williams and J.J. Redick playing for the US. At that point he likely would have been a lottery picked based on the articles I read about him.

Instead, Bogut went to Utah. Scouts were obviously interested in how he'd play, and a few articles I read indicated that he could be a top 5 pick if he continued building on what he showed at the World Junior's. Unfortunately, he didn't have a great year and ended up averaging 13 and 10. Good, but not what was expected. At that time, his NBA stock had dropped sharply so he decided to stay in school.

During that summer he played for the Australian Olympic squad and played quite well. His team finished 9th, but Bogut played well considering he was only 19 and he ended up averaging 14 and 9. He had 11 and 8 vs. Team USA -- mostly vs. Duncan -- and had a very nice game vs. Lithuania, scoring 21 and grabbing 9 boards. Obviously, the scouts took notice of his performance. I read one article before the 2004 season that stated Bogut looked like a different player in the Olympics and that if he carried that over to Utah, he'd be a top pick in the 05 draft.

Well, he did carry it over and he averaged 20 and 12, garnering player of the year awards while leading his rather mediocre Utah team to the sweet 16. Scouts were sold and he ended up being the #1 pick.

Obviously, I've been following his career for awhile now, but it's really not a huge shock that he was the #1 pick this year. He would have been a lottery pick back in 2003, and after showing such maturation in the Olympics and in his sophomore season at Utah, he was the no brainer #1 pick. He's only 20 and I expect him to have a great NBA career, mainly because of his work ethic and determination. He really has a great track record of success and a lot of experience in international play. Compare his record to Marvin Williams and you'll see what I mean. Strangely, he's the #1 pick and a lot of people are underestimating him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for that, I was wondering why he was regarded so highly. His performance in the Olympics does shed some light on why scouts had such a collective boner for him, whereas that one good college year didn't seem to justify it at all. NBA ball is not Olympic ball though, so I think the jury is still out.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for that, I was wondering why he was regarded so highly. His performance in the Olympics does shed some light on why scouts had such a collective boner for him, whereas that one good college year didn't seem to justify it at all. NBA ball is not Olympic ball though, so I think the jury is still out.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but it paints a better picture than just, "wow, 20-12 at Utah, let's take him."

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you taking scout's words as gospel? You realize they miss ALL THE TIME, right?

Nobody knows that the kid is going to do (even the almighty scouts), we're all just guessing at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think looking at his career path and reading about what scouts were saying about him at various points in the last 3 years sheds better light on him than having it be a complete crapshoot. Of course scouts make mistakes, but it makes more sense to give credence to what scouts have been saying about him over the years than to just assume he's Luc Longley because he's white and from Australia.

I obviously followed the kids career and when I finally got to see him play, I saw exactly what they had been talking about. He is seriously skilled. Chris Taft is an example of someone I heard about and saw him play and thought, what's with all the hype on this kid?

How do you think all professional teams choose who to add to their teams? Roll some dice?

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Just because you're a number one pick in the draft doesn't mean you'll wind up being a good or great player. I am not saying the scouts don't know what they're talking about, it's just that nobody knows for sure who'll be a great pro player. Year after year you see lottery picks that don't play all that well in the pros. I was watching ESPN the other day and I heard them say that Kwame Brown has been asked not to come back to the Wizards, and yet a couple years ago they were hyping him up and Washington took him #1 in the draft. Also, Yao is a good player, but he is not yet a great player. But when he was drafted everybody was going crazy about how this guy was gonna be such a great player. And there's also Darco Milicik who we haven't seen play very much because he plays for a great team and under a coach who wants to give him some time to grow. Yet, I read articles before that draft where some people where saying he might be better than Lebron and many others saying that he is NOT better than Lebron but IS better than Carmelo. Only time will tell but it's possible that he could wind up a mediocre player at the pro level. All I am saying is that Bogut may wind up a mediocre player in the NBA, and we'll just have to wait and see. Do you think he is the best player in the rookie class? Because I would NOT be at all suprised if someone besides Bogut snatches up next year's rookie of the year award.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right about there being busts, which is why I wrote up that little bit on his career. Bogut has a much better track record of dominance than say, someone like Darko, who never even got regular playing time and was drafted purely on his measurements and workouts. Bogut also has proven himself much more than a Kwame Brown, who only played HS ball and at a few camps. I was attempting to point out the situation here is quite different, but apparently my points fell on deaf ears.

Marvin Williams is a much better example from this years draft of someone who could fail. He played in HS and played one year off the bench at UNC. No international tournament MVPs or gold medals. No solid play in the Olympics. No leading his team to the sweet 16 and winning player of the year. Williams is a much bigger risk and more of a potential pick than Bogut, hence the larger risk that he doesn't pan out.

Also, the fact that some random analyst on ESPN hypes up a player is fairly meaningless. Don't get your sports information from ESPN, unless it is just box scores or player transactions. Many of the analysts are clueless.

[holeplug]

If you are the Bucks you have to take a 7 footer that has shown some good skills at every level he has played at(Aytumious I'll take your word for it) since they don't exactly grow on trees. It seems a lot of people don't like the pick b/c his upside is not as high as other players in the draft ala Marvin Williams. Plus if you decide to pass on a player like Bogut (talented 7 footer), you better be sure he is very special (Lebron James) and there was no one like that in this years draft.

[Rob Blackburn]

This is why you have to be scared of picking Bogut at one.

Bogut vs. Chuck Hayes

Bogut=pwn3d

I think when you look down the road and re-evaluate the top 5, Bogut will be the most disappointing pro.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you have to be scared of picking Bogut at one.

Bogut vs. Chuck Hayes

Bogut=pwn3d

I think when you look down the road and re-evaluate the top 5, Bogut will be the most disappointing pro.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty clear we will all just have to wait and see. BTW, Bogut had 20 and 12 vs. Kentucky and Hayes had 12 and 4. Apparently that's being pwn3d. It is funny you think Felton will have a better career though. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[cognito20]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say a slightly less skilled more athletic post-injury Arvydas...bigger brad miller?

[/ QUOTE ]

No one who just saw him in the NBA saw the real Arvydas Sabonis. When he was young and playing for the Soviet national team, he was an absolute monster. He was one of the 4 or 5 best big men in the world, period, when he was younger. I recall him just having David Robinson for lunch and spitting out the entrails in the 1988 Olympic semifinal.

If Andrew Bogut is going to be anything like the YOUNG Arvydas Sabonis, the Bucks made one hell of a pick.

[PokerBob]

I grew up in Racine, and went to high school with Jim Mcilvaine. Big white guys scare me. I hope he is good, but I fear the worst. That said, I think they made the right pick, as no on else is all that impressive.

[lil_o]

I think a more accurate comparison to Bogut instead of Luc Longley is Vlade Divac. Bogut's bball IQ is very high, he has court vision comparable to Vlade or Webber, he is crafty around the basket, and has excellent footwork.