hmm, bubble utg hand.. thoughts?

[raptor517]

in case anyone didnt notice, im trying to bring the forum back together. as of late, it has been going down hill in terms of useful information. soo.. ive been posting a lot of hands that COULD cause some controversy and spark some intelligent banter. anyways, heres another one..

***** Hand History for Game 2278529698 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13487807 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, June 28, 19:43:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 11249 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Lip_Balm ( $1475 )
Seat 4: LKM1196 ( $1790 )
Seat 5: Patzienten ( $1730 )
Seat 10: danxxx1 ( $5005 )
Trny:13487807 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lip_Balm [ Qs 5h ]
Lip_Balm ??

holla

[Freudian]

Fold. Crap hand. Big stack in BB. Both alternatives suck of course.

[kyro]

I agree. If I had a chance to play more, I'd post more hands. But this forum is turning into OOT. Honestly, I know there are people that think Skipperbob is hilarious, but this isn't his personal playground. Same with the useless no content posts that have been popping up in record numbers lately. (I was guilty of one about a week ago so I'll try to atone for that...)

As for your hand. Big stack is BB. I think he calls this more than you want. I fold this.

[lastchance]

Reads matter, as always.

You've got 4x BB, which sucks. You're UTG, with Q5o. That sucks as well. A bunch of other people are short-stacked, which is bad...

I think big stack has a wide calling range, I think you can't push a Q5o here.

[Daliman]

Easy fold. Even IF neither of the other 2 players wake up with a hand, the big stack in the BB is getting 1075 for 2075 on his call. Helps to have a hand in those situations, and Q5o isn't a hand.

[THATWACOKID]

Ok, I'll admit it ... I chose push. But I think it depends on whether or not BB wants the bubble to continue. I also think the other stacks would have to have a pretty good hand to call you here. BTW, I suck at poker so feel free to laugh at me.

[ QUOTE ]
BB is getting 1075 for 2075 on his call

[/ QUOTE ]

This probably outweighs the advantage of keeping the bubble going.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'll admit it ... I chose push. But I think it depends on whether or not BB wants the bubble to continue. I also think the other stacks would have to have a pretty good hand to call you here. BTW, I suck at poker so feel free to laugh at me.

[ QUOTE ]
BB is getting 1075 for 2075 on his call

[/ QUOTE ]

This probably outweighs the advantage of keeping the bubble going.

[/ QUOTE ]
AGreed. The bubble press not that strong here.

[sapster]

Folding here is criminal, shove it baby!.

[Matt R.]

I voted push. You're knocked down to 875 in chips after the blinds pass, assuming it's not folded to you -- i.e. you're screwed. I doubt the two medium stacks will call without a very solid hand, so you'll probably get it heads up with the BB, and Q5o is a slight favorite vs. a random hand. Plus, even though BB is getting great odds, I would think he will have at least some calling standards as 1475 (err... I guess it would just be 1075, but it's still a good portion) is a healthy chunk of his stack. I'm actually surprised so many people voted fold -- I'd like to hear some arguments for why my reasoning is wrong. I suck, so have at it.

[sapster]

Matt R your post is deadon in my view.

[The Yugoslavian]

Folding is sublime...

Yugoslav
<font color="white">B/c otherwise the Big Stack calls (me instead of those other humps) with *his* pseudo-crap hand only to then win and take the time to undo his pants and urinate all over my cards, chair, and lap.....unSHIP IT!?!?!</font>

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt R your post is deadon in my view.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the big stack calling one of the other stacks pushes? Ever heard of that?

Yugoslav
<font color="white">I'm pretty sure TOW would give this post the 'it don't matta if u black o white' seal of approval</font>

[Matt R.]

I doubt they will be very push-happy if you are down to 800 chips after the blinds pass. They'll be content to wait you out unless they pick up a huge hand.

[benza13]

Yes, but there's also the possibility that they push while you are a blind and the big stack calls and busts them. Plus after you get through the blinds if you win 1 all in you will be in the same shape as the other small stacks again. Without action the blinds are crippling to them as well. And you might always wake up with a hand in the blinds. I like your chances better if you fold this, because too many times the BB will call and knock you out in 4th here, I believe.

[freemoney]

this is all about image i think.

[tminus]

50% against one random hand, you're barely the small stack, and about to spliced in half by the blinds

push now while you have more fold equity

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I voted push. You're knocked down to 875 in chips after the blinds pass, assuming it's not folded to you -- i.e. you're screwed. I doubt the two medium stacks will call without a very solid hand, so you'll probably get it heads up with the BB, and Q5o is a slight favorite vs. a random hand. Plus, even though BB is getting great odds, I would think he will have at least some calling standards as 1475 (err... I guess it would just be 1075, but it's still a good portion) is a healthy chunk of his stack. I'm actually surprised so many people voted fold -- I'd like to hear some arguments for why my reasoning is wrong. I suck, so have at it.

[/ QUOTE ]
875 is nowhere NEAR screwed.

[johnnybeef]

it is a marginal push if everyone is very tight. however, your current image is that of a short stack who is about to lose 1/2 of his chips to the blinds, and the bb will be getting very close to 2:1 with for 1/5 of his stack. as it stands, he has a very liberal calling range, and therefor is a clear fold.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
50% against one random hand, you're barely the small stack, and about to spliced in half by the blinds

push now while you have more fold equity

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, what's that % vs THREE random hands, one of which may be real?

[Big Limpin']

Push...the BB(bigstack) has identified the situation...that 3 little stacks are playing for 2 ITM places. If he sees you push UTG, he has to put you on a biggie hand...and likely a better hand than he holds....i think he has reason to call (considering that he has posted t400) mebbe 1 in 4 (?). And the littlestacks see you stick your neck out...they just fold and hope you get looked up...i doubt MP/Button call with less than JJ/AQ


Oui?/Non?/Comme ci comme sa?

[raptor517]

just in case yall didnt know, i obv shoved. however, i shove everything. i DO think its quite correct to push this though. ill run some icm stuff here in a bit and post it up. holla

[Big Limpin']

Whats most important is that *if* you take thes eblinds, you are in GREAT position to pwn the other shorties (both stackwise, and table position-wise)....if you take the blinds, you are a big fav to pull 2nd.

If you fold, you may make the money, but that ITm is likely to be a Bronze Medal.

Limpin' ain't easy...but pushin' sure is fun (?) /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[bradha]

I'd fold.
1. I don't think you have much fold equity by pushing here, as BB gets good pot odds to call you down.
2. You don't have to put any money in the pot yet. You can play all in with a random hand next time if you want, but you don't need to do that yet.
3. Waiting just one hand gives the other short stacks a chance to bust first.
4. Don't assume you will have to surrender your blinds; you might get a hand good enough to double up with.

[Big Limpin']

Hero pays blinds next hand.
More pertinantly, hero pays blinds b4 the others shorties *next* round too. WHo knows what the stack sizes will be (or if hero is still around even) but its real likely that hero will be SOL as far as waiting others out if he folds, and doesnt get a money deal in the BB.

Just poosh and flop 555

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
just in case yall didnt know, i obv shoved. however, i shove everything. i DO think its quite correct to push this though. ill run some icm stuff here in a bit and post it up. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

See if you can work into your calcs the chances of one of the other stacks busting himself...that, im my mind, makes up the difference here.

Also, this is a situation where being able to figure out the chances of another shorter stack calling you and the big blind also calling (due to tremendous pot odds). B/c that would be a disaster.

Yugoslav

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
and table position-wise

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good point.

[Matt R.]

Also, note that if you fold this, you're going to be getting good odds to call from the BB with any two. Suppose the big blind puts you all-in next hand. You're getting 1.93:1 on your call (oops, messed up somewhere when I first did this, it's really 1.74:1 -- 1.93 is if someone else puts you all in). Your random hand next hand is going to be slightly worse than Q5o on average. Would you fold your BB if big stack puts you all in, with 25% of your chips committed? Note that your odds are even better if one of the medium stacks puts you in. If you would not fold your blind, wouldn't you rather be the one pushing so you have some added FE, rather than calling off your chips?

Maybe I'm wrong, but if you fold through the blinds, then you're going to have to win one, and probably more, showdowns to finish ITM, as no one is going to fold their BB to a 275 chip (edit -- 475, I'm full of mistakes today) raise. I still think you have some amount of FE here, and like I said earlier, Q5o is very slightly better than 50:50 versus a random hand.

[IMTheWalrus8]

I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here. Next hand you're in the BB and will lose almost 1/3 of your stack.

I am generally against hanging by your fingernails to make the money, and you're the short stack anyway.

Do you a good read on the BB calling you if no one else does? I still think it's a push.

BTW raptor the effort is much appreciated.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav
<font color="white">Who can't wait to ICM this batch and show Raptor why his push isn't even good before factoring in things ICM can't. Woo woo! IT DON'T MATTA IF U BLACK/WHITE?!</font>

[TheUsher]

Here's my analysis for a normal 215:

I'd personally fold because of the position of the players at the table where 3 stack sizes are almost similar, and especially because of the big stack in the BB. To assign certain calling ranges, I'll be a little tighter than normal so let's assume:

Button (1790): 66+,ATs+,AJo+
SB (1730): 66+,ATs+,AJo+
BB (5005): 22+,A2s+,A2o+,K7s+,K9o+,QJs, QTo+

I will not include KQ in the call hands for the Button/SB, but I personally feel that people will call more with this hand than say A3 or so.

In the real world though, the shorties are more likely to call with hands that are much worse than the ones listed above as the 215's have a reputation for constant steals, and people know this. Also, an UTG push from the smallest stack at the table hardly ever means the guy has a monster, but that he's trying to not blind out and steal the blinds in this hand while he's still able to. There's also a huge possibility that one of the 2 other small stacks will call you with something even as weak as A2 in this spot because of the fact that they know you're stealing this hand. It may not be right for them, but trust me that they'll do it anyway.

Since only 1xBB separates the 3 of us small stacks, I'd be happy to fold this hand because I'd be confident I'm a little more experienced than the other 2 people here who are also desperate. This might seem counter-intuitive but I'd believe they have a greater likelihood of making a wrong decision than I would, if that even makes sense. As an added bonus, if the big stack does not pressure all of us on this bubble, I have the 2 other small stacks to my left which will allow me to pressure them in later hands if needed. Also, big stacks sometimes get hesitant to put you all-in for say the last couple of BB for your stack when you're in the BB versus their SB as sometimes people get fancy trying to keep the bubble alive, and/or they have utter crap in their SB and choose to fold it.

P.S. No math included in this post but I already ran it based on my info above and I'm not liking it. An added thought: If the big stack was switched to the button, it changes things dramatically.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
it is a marginal push if everyone is very tight. however, your current image is that of a short stack who is about to lose 1/2 of his chips to the blinds, and the bb will be getting very close to 2:1 with for 1/5 of his stack. as it stands, he has a very liberal calling range, and therefor is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's half the reason why I would fold.

[ QUOTE ]
875 is nowhere NEAR screwed. -Daliman

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's the other half. Fold.

Irieguy

[Phil Van Sexton]

I voted fold.

I've been rethinking my shortstack UTG pushes lately. When you are BB next hand, the big stack will be SB. This will discourage the other 2 players from stealing your BB. They also know that you will be calling with any reasonable hand if the big stack does fold.

Therefore, they won't try to steal often. Once they fold, it's pretty much your random hand vs. the big stack in the SB. The big stack isn't going to push any 2 because you are so short that you are going to call A LOT.

Just a guess, but he might just fold 30% of the time. That's a pretty sweet deal. When he doens't fold, hopefully you'll have a hand better than Q5.

In summary, I'd rather count on the big stack to give up his SB on the next hand, than ask him to fold his BB on this hand. This drives the middle stacks insane, especially when you do it with a microstack because you know a 109/215 big stack will keep you alive intentionally.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav


[/ QUOTE ]

I look at it this way:

Fold: 1475 left, and you can gimp along and try to make the money, as you have no FE left; you have six hands left to wake up with a hand

Push and everyone folds: 2075 left, you've shown aggression and have some breathing room

Push, BB calls and you win: 3150 left; obviously a great result, and it's time to shoot for first

Push, BB calls and you lose: SOL and it's time to start another SnG

The likely scenario is that BB will call with anything, which gives you a 50% chance of winning. Given the other possibilities, let's say you have a 33% chance of surviving. I think your increased chances of finishing 1st makes this a push.

The reason I think it's OK to make a move that loses more times than it wins here, is that you are already in a -EV situation as the short stack and the BB in the next hand.

[lacky]

Oh man, I gotta agree with Dali, that sucks!

Steve

[kiffl]

I voted for fold, because Q5o is just to weak of a hand to be pushing. Even if you had Kx I would probably fold here because of the big stack in the big blind who might notice your push could be with two random cards.

[tminus]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what's that % vs THREE random hands, one of which may be real?

[/ QUOTE ]

so you only push hands that can hold up if every player calls?
wow

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav


[/ QUOTE ]

I look at it this way:

Fold: 1475 left, and you can gimp along and try to make the money, as you have no FE left; you have six hands left to wake up with a hand

Push and everyone folds: 2075 left, you've shown aggression and have some breathing room

Push, BB calls and you win: 3150 left; obviously a great result, and it's time to shoot for first

Push, BB calls and you lose: SOL and it's time to start another SnG

The likely scenario is that BB will call with anything, which gives you a 50% chance of winning. Given the other possibilities, let's say you have a 33% chance of surviving. I think your increased chances of finishing 1st makes this a push.

The reason I think it's OK to make a move that loses more times than it wins here, is that you are already in a -EV situation as the short stack and the BB in the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are most of you only considering the BB calling? The other 2 players have cards too, you know. Also, while a blinds steal is nice here, it still is FAR from being ITM, and the big stack is in your BB, ready to take back those chips all the time.

Looking for your leaks, raptor? You're a pushbot, and you attempt to ICM EVERYTHING to justify it.

With the tools, I get -2.5%, -$50.19 on my TIGHT calling ranges

Button:66+,ATs+,AJo+
SB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs+
BB: 22+,A2s+,A2o+,K2s+,K7o+,Q8s+,J7s+, Q9+, J9+,T9s

And the BB will likely call with more hands than this, as will the other players.

Holla back

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what's that % vs THREE random hands, one of which may be real?

[/ QUOTE ]

so you only push hands that can hold up if every player calls?
wow

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, no wonder I do SO badly at these.

Reading comprehenision is a skill. You may wish to learn it sometime.