Daily Hand Post: sick river decision with a full house [Archive]

jason_t

06-26-2005, 04:41 AM

Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands.

I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, I raise, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, I bet, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, I....

Nick C

06-26-2005, 04:42 AM

I'd call, expecting to lose.

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]

MP1 bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Vomit.

Malachii

06-26-2005, 04:45 AM

Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

toss

06-26-2005, 04:46 AM

Yuck nasty runner runner. The .9 aggro factor makes me think that its highly likely that we lose here. Whats more is that he donkbet the river. Yuck. I slowly fold.

thirddan

06-26-2005, 04:48 AM

i don't think you will see the group of hands you suggest anywhere near 10% of the time...this guy just seems too passive to take a shot with a missed draw, unless he was going for nut flush and has A hi...

more likely hands (that we beat) are a 7/Q or A hi...

edit: after looking at the hand again i would say you are pretty [censored]...he is unlikely to lead the flop with only a Q/7/flush draw i think (although a flush draw is the most likely of those hands to lead the flop, not everyone thinks that a c/r is better and many will lead right into the PFR with a flush draw here)...even a passive player will put in a raise on the turn with trip sevens or Q7...bleh, i still say call, im not capable of folding boats for one bet on the river...

i think you should just call, unless you can raise and fold to a 3bet which kinda sucks cuz you can just call and showdown...

jason_t

06-26-2005, 04:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a flush draw betting into the preflop raiser?

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 04:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a flush draw betting into the preflop raiser?

[/ QUOTE ]

People do this all the time.

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 05:03 AM

Raising and folding to a 3 bet is pretty bad here. You only beat a bluff and he is either gonna fold or 3-bet (rare) with the bluff. If he folds you might as well have called, and if 3 bets you have wasted 2BB and lost yourself a big pot. He doesn't have a 7 here, as a 7 c/r the turn. This guy isn't too loose either, so that makes a 7 even more unlikely. Hard to see him playing a Queen like this, and there is only 1 Queen out. Not impossible, but very very unlikely.

einbert

06-26-2005, 05:40 AM

I would call. It's very hard to say his exact hand range, but I'd say that he will have and be betting something with no showdown value or a seven at all more than 1/9 times.

Shillx

06-26-2005, 05:47 AM

Either call or fold. I don't know who told you to raise here, but that seems pretty crazy to me. Nothing worse is going to call it and nothing better is going to fold. Folding is probably better then calling but I almost always end up calling out of disgust. I hate wondering if I made a dumb fold so when push comes to shove, I call.

Brad

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would call. It's very hard to say his exact hand range, but I'd say that he will have and be betting something with no showdown value or a seven at all more than 1/9 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can he have a seven

i) He isn't particularly loose - isn't playing that many sevens

ii) He isn't betting a naked seven into the pfr here.

iii) If somehow he did, he is c/r the turn here.

iv) If somehow he didn't, he isn't betting the river when a K comes.

Evan

06-26-2005, 05:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who misread the action and said 'check?'

einbert

06-26-2005, 05:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would call. It's very hard to say his exact hand range, but I'd say that he will have and be betting something with no showdown value or a seven at all more than 1/9 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can he have a seven

i) He isn't particularly loose - isn't playing that many sevens

ii) He isn't betting a naked seven into the pfr here.

iii) If somehow he did, he is c/r the turn here.

iv) If somehow he didn't, he isn't betting the river when a K comes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it is not a very likely holding. Maybe I've just been playing too much 5/10 6max where they will play hands in the most bizarre ways.

jjacky

06-26-2005, 06:10 AM

this looks sick indeed. but there are only 2 cards in the deck that beat you. i don't think you can be 90% sure that he has it. call.

jason_t

06-26-2005, 06:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
this looks sick indeed. but there are only 2 cards in the deck that beat you. i don't think you can be 90% sure that he has it. call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true, but you have to hand read too. On a board of 222AK holding AA, only one card is beating me, but if the action is intense, I'm more likely beat than not.

psyduck

06-26-2005, 06:15 AM

Damn what a tricky hand. For a second I was wondering how on earth everyone was telling you to call or fold when you have QQQKK for heaven's sake. Then I realized that if he has a king, he has KKK77 and he beats you (posted that just in case others missed it...)

I make a crying call.

bakku

06-26-2005, 06:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who misread the action and said 'check?'

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm willing to bet a substantial amount of money that one of the opinions was not check.

Evan

06-26-2005, 06:24 AM

I don't even know what to say to this.

jgorham

06-26-2005, 06:28 AM

Easy call. You will see a pocket pair, flush draw, straight draw, or some wonky bluff more than 1/9 times.

jjacky

06-26-2005, 06:36 AM

yes, the action suggests that you are beaten here. but does it suggest you are beaten more than 90% of the time? i don't think so.

and compare it to the situation in your other post (i would appreciate an answer btw) : your AQ post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2726017&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) .
in this situation, most people (i don't) want to call the bet. the action is weaker in the AQ situation of course. but in the other case about every hand beats yours and here he exactly have to have a king more than 90% of the time.

sometimes i have the impression that some people are so focused what the opponent(s) have that they literally forget their own holding.

jason_t

06-26-2005, 06:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. You will see a pocket pair, flush draw, straight draw, or some wonky bluff more than 1/9 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you say this, are you ignoring the rest of the action in the hand?

aK13

06-26-2005, 06:38 AM

I couldn't get myself to lay this down. It's probably the higher EV move, but I just call and pray.

jjacky

06-26-2005, 06:39 AM

i don't think he does. it's just 10% of the time is a low number and justified by pretty remote chances. and i give him credit for a seven with a chance of some percent.

bakku

06-26-2005, 06:39 AM

'i love bukkake'??

aK13

06-26-2005, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think he does. it's just 10% of the time is a low number and justified by pretty remote chances. and i give him credit for a seven with a chance of some percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

99% chance a 7 raises this turn...

jjacky

06-26-2005, 06:40 AM

yepp, frustrating to get such a strong holding cripled on the river.

oreogod

06-26-2005, 06:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. You will see a pocket pair, flush draw, straight draw, or some wonky bluff more than 1/9 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Their are only two things he has here. PP or a K. He's pretty passive betting into the aggressor on the end, I say fold unless u have a read.

Calling is not horrible either. But given how I read the hand I think you're beat. Any 7 raises the turn...any other way to play a set to most low limiters is sacrilege.

jjacky

06-26-2005, 06:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think he does. it's just 10% of the time is a low number and justified by pretty remote chances. and i give him credit for a seven with a chance of some percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

99% chance a 7 raises this turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

i honestly don't think that the chance is that high (more in the range between 80 and 95%). and that makes an enormous difference. lets say he had a 25 % chance to have a 7 on the turn, he raises 95% of the time with a seven and he makes the call with 50% of the other holdings he might have. this numbers would lead us to roughly a 2.5 percent chance that he has a 7 (and i think its somewhat higher). in this case we would need only a 7.5% chance for other holdings that do not contain a K.

jskills

06-26-2005, 11:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call, expecting to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Emmitt2222

06-26-2005, 11:40 AM

I'd call because this seems to be people's favorite bluff me against me, gaybetting the river. Granted it doesnt look like he is bluffing as much because of the action on previous streets but you never know. Many time this is where you get c/r on the river but becuase he did not I think it could be some stupid bluff often enough.

AL5AcE

06-26-2005, 11:49 AM

Just look him up. You have the right odds, and even if we expect to lose most of the time in this situation you are not losing anything close to a full bet in the long run. Making yourself feel better or discovering something weird might further discount that loss.

A 31/2.5/.9 looks like someone trying to play well but doesn't, so I wouldn't discount the fact that he won't do weird things. He could just be taking a stab with AJs, ATs, a pp, or a Q, after putting you on a K and seeing that the river made that a bit unlikely. He could also have any 7 which he planned to raise/bet on the river after making sure that no hearts came (he's overly passive/cautious). These are all distant but if you do discover that he's capable of doing something like that, you'll look beyond the .9 aggression and might just make more money off him.

I'd also assign a 5-10% chance that anybody might be running an outright bluff at the end for any weak reason plus all the above and I'd give it a crying call. If I was totally confident with my read so that even after folding I wouldn't have to post the hand on 2+2, then I'd fold instead.

nfscreech

06-26-2005, 12:06 PM

Given the stats on the villian and the way the hand played out, there is a high chance the villian has a K.
However, people playing 2/4 make strange plays all the time that aren't at all logical.
I think there's a bit less than a 10% chance that you have the villian beat, in which case folding is profitable.
I am probably calling here for two reasons:
1) The expectation for calling and folding is very close.
2) By folding on the river, observant opponents will take more shots and you in the future.

KDawgCometh

06-26-2005, 01:03 PM

I think you're gonna have to make a call here. the villian is just too passive and you have a ton of hands on him, so those passive stats are gonna be pretty on point. I'd say every single swear word in teh dictionary as I am making the call. I just don't see how he would pop up like that on the river without a King. Some may say fold, but I know that I can't get away from a hand like this for one bet on the river just on the off chance that he has a seven inatead of a king

shant

06-26-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think he does. it's just 10% of the time is a low number and justified by pretty remote chances. and i give him credit for a seven with a chance of some percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

99% chance a 7 raises this turn...

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this a full ring thing? Maybe I've been playing far too much 5/10 6-max, but I've seen the wierdest, donkiest slowplays and backwards plays I've ever seen in my life. That's why I'm not so sure this isn't a seven. I've seen enough players have the virtual nuts, slowplay, then when a card comes that scares their hand, they bet. We can't justify moronic opponents having it here 9 out of 9 times, so I call and get angry the times he has it and laugh at him the time he has a seven.

CallMeIshmael

06-26-2005, 02:18 PM

Jason, would you mind sheding some light on the argument people provided that was not calling or folding?

I really, really, really hate raising and folding to a 3-bet here. (and calling the 3-bet is even worse, imo)

BWebb

06-26-2005, 02:41 PM

MP1 bets, I....wish I can start making these folds.

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jason, would you mind sheding some light on the argument people provided that was not calling or folding?

I really, really, really hate raising and folding to a 3-bet here. (and calling the 3-bet is even worse, imo)

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising here is just attrocious poker.

BigBaitsim (milo)

06-26-2005, 02:58 PM

Call and prepare to flng your cards angrily into the muck.

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands.

I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, I raise, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, I bet, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you have more of a read on his river aggression? I have watched sessions (in PT) with players with similar stats. Some of them have a high river aggression factor. At first I thought, they were fish that got aggressive when they hit their draw. But, many of the times, it was a player who liked to make a desperation river bluff, especially HU.

I would call. But if the river aggression were very low, I might find a fold (since you have 2073 hands on him).

private joker

06-26-2005, 03:18 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
Just look him up. You have the right odds, and even if we expect to lose most of the time in this situation you are not losing anything close to a full bet in the long run. Making yourself feel better or discovering something weird might further discount that loss.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best and most concise point in the thread so far. Just look him up. It's clearly a close decision between calling and folding, so why not just call? This isn't the most thrilling decision in poker history.

jjacky

06-26-2005, 03:18 PM

yes, i wondered what the argument for a raise might be too.

hobbsmann

06-26-2005, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you have more of a read on his river aggression? I have watched sessions (in PT) with players with similar stats. Some of them have a high river aggression factor. At first I thought, they were fish that got aggressive when they hit their draw. But, many of the times, it was a player who liked to make a desperation river bluff, especially HU.

I would call. But if the river aggression were very low, I might find a fold (since you have 2073 hands on him).

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel like I get gaybet on the river a ton playing the 2/4 on party. It still confuses me and I end up sitting there for while trying to imagine what f'ed up card they could have hit. I usually end up calling and a fair amount of the time it is some otherwise passive player making a desparation bet when his/her draw didn't get there. That being said I'm also curious about villian's river aggro factor.

I'd say even a passive like this guy might lead into the pfr with a strong drawing hand (JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif or Ax /images/graemlins/heart.gif) and then proceeds to check call to the river after your flop raise. As far as this hand goes I'd say call and expect to see a pp or busted draw > 1/9.

billyjex

06-26-2005, 03:35 PM

I would never fold this.

chesspain

06-26-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Granted it doesnt look like he is bluffing as much because of the action on previous streets but you never know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you never know. That's why people collect stats and try to formulate probabalistic reads...

jstewsmole

06-26-2005, 04:00 PM

I would call here, especially at 2/4. Either way i think that the 2 plays are very close in EV.

Entity

06-26-2005, 04:08 PM

I think as long as you raise, it doesn't matter much, which leads me to call to find out what hands this guy plays this way.

Rob

Scott_Baio

06-26-2005, 04:12 PM

Raising = Spewing
Calling = Frustration
Folding = Somewhat Weak

I'd go with fold there though. Imagine you have AQ and have played it the same so far, almost everyone would be telling you to fold this river, and because I don't think this villain has AA, or 7x more than 1% of the time here, your hand is effectively AQ.

Justin A

06-26-2005, 04:12 PM

I can't believe this hand is getting so many replies. Call the bet, expect to be good every once in a while when the guy happens to be donking around, and move onto the next hand.

private joker

06-26-2005, 04:13 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
I can't believe this hand is getting so many replies. Call the bet, expect to be good every once in a while when the guy happens to be donking around, and move onto the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yes, i wondered what the argument for a raise might be too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you don't like $.

sthief09

06-26-2005, 04:30 PM

seems like a really easy fold to me

private joker

06-26-2005, 04:40 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
seems like a really easy fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's pretty close. I don't think you've played Party 2/4 recently. This ain't 15/30.

sthief09

06-26-2005, 04:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seems like a really easy fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's pretty close. I don't think you've played Party 2/4 recently. This ain't 15/30.

[/ QUOTE ]

how does this: Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands. vary with the game?

easy fold. that's why it's nice playing against these types. they bet, you fold. he has a K

oreogod

06-26-2005, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe this hand is getting so many replies. Call the bet, expect to be good every once in a while when the guy happens to be donking around, and move onto the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just described just about every hand on this board.

oreogod

06-26-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just look him up. You have the right odds, and even if we expect to lose most of the time in this situation you are not losing anything close to a full bet in the long run. Making yourself feel better or discovering something weird might further discount that loss.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best and most concise point in the thread so far. Just look him up. It's clearly a close decision between calling and folding, so why not just call? This isn't the most thrilling decision in poker history.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, he has over 2000 hands on the dude. There is no reason to look him up again.

Its a fold. I dont think its close. But I dont mind ppl saying it is close. Some fold, some call...there is not going to be any definite concesus. For me its a fold because Im sure hes beat. I dont expect to be good here 10 percent of the time.

Entity

06-26-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seems like a really easy fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's pretty close. I don't think you've played Party 2/4 recently. This ain't 15/30.

[/ QUOTE ]

how does this: Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands. vary with the game?

easy fold. that's why it's nice playing against these types. they bet, you fold. he has a K

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Josh,

First of all, .9 isn't a superlow aggression factor, though it certainly isn't superhigh. He's basically neutral in my book. It'd help to have a breakdown of aggression per street because the overall aggression is much less important than the river aggression here as well. I played just the other day against a player that was an overall 1.1 or so, but was something like .5/1.3/2.5 or so. This was over 1500 hands. I caught him bluffing on the river a ton thanks to that breakdown. I'm sure that isn't something we see often but we've got to be good 10% of the time for this to be breakeven.

If jason_t folded here I'm sure it isn't a losing fold by much, but this is one of those situations where I'm happy to get a non-PT read, knowing that if I'm losing I don't think it costs me much more than a tenth of a bet or so.

Rob

sthief09

06-26-2005, 05:07 PM

.9 for a 31 VPIP is bordering on superlow. that fact that he's tight leads me to believe he's in line. I think he's good 1 or 2% of the time here. he has to have a K. he bet the flop then called the turn and bet the river. he has a K 99% of the time

sthief09

06-26-2005, 05:07 PM

DBowling

06-26-2005, 05:08 PM

call

sthief09

06-26-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call

[/ QUOTE ]

this type of post adds lots of value to a thread that's already 50+ replies long.

Entity

06-26-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
.9 for a 31 VPIP is bordering on superlow. that fact that he's tight leads me to believe he's in line. I think he's good 1 or 2% of the time here. he has to have a K. he bet the flop then called the turn and bet the river. he has a K 99% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, it's nowhere near 98-99% of the time. You're telling me he never randomly bluffs? I'm not arguing that this is a good spot for a bluff, but he's slightly too loose and definitely too passive and not good, and he's going to be betting something stupid like A/images/graemlins/heart.gifX/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the river a small portion of the time. Even bad players don't bluff 0% of the time.

Rob

Shillx

06-26-2005, 05:18 PM

think he's good 1 or 2% of the time here.

Meh I'm pretty sure that we are good more often then this although I do agree with you that folding is better. Imo he will have either JT or a flush draw in this spot at least some of the time. We need more of a read then 32/3/.9 or whatever since this doesn't tell us WHAT the villian will bet. He might be aggressive with draws and passive with top pair type hands or it might be the other way around.

The other thing that you have to consider here is that this is a real nice board for him to bluff into. It isn't an easy call for us unless we have a king. He might hope that we fold AA or A-high or even queens full with a bet here, and that is what always leads me to call in this spot. You see even the most predictable players make funky bets when the board double pairs.

Brad

chesspain

06-26-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
.9 for a 31 VPIP is bordering on superlow. that fact that he's tight leads me to believe he's in line. I think he's good 1 or 2% of the time here. he has to have a K. he bet the flop then called the turn and bet the river. he has a K 99% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Although 99% may be a bit extreme, I agree that calling here is likely -EV over the long-run. However, so many others seem to be caught in the headlights of the "call if getting close to 10:1 or better" rule--as if ABC players suddenly begin donking around when the clock strikes ten (BB).

Then again, what do I know? I'm down like 150BB at 3/6 after 17K hands.

Entity

06-26-2005, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
.9 for a 31 VPIP is bordering on superlow. that fact that he's tight leads me to believe he's in line. I think he's good 1 or 2% of the time here. he has to have a K. he bet the flop then called the turn and bet the river. he has a K 99% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Although 99% may be a bit extreme, I agree that calling here is likely -EV over the long-run. However, so many others seem to be caught in the headlights of the "call if getting close to 10:1 or better" rule--as if ABC players suddenly begin donking around when the clock strikes ten (BB).

Then again, what do I know? I'm down like 150BB at 3/6 after 17K hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chess,

The hardest part, without the river aggression factor (which, sans-read, is the most important number we can have here), is trying to assign to him a reasonable bluffing portion. Josh thinks it's like 1%. I think it's a lot higher -- probably not 10% but definitely not 1%. Somewhere in between. That mitigates the cost of a calldown a lot, and when we're able to get something solid, assuming we'll be playing against this guy again, it's worthwhile.

In isolation, I think it's really close. If I had notes, it's easy to swing this to a call or a fold. If I knew his river aggression was .5, it's an easy fold; if it's 1.5, it's a call.

Rob

KDawgCometh

06-26-2005, 05:45 PM

partygirluk

06-26-2005, 05:49 PM

You aren't good enough to make calling immediately + EV, although this will sometimes be a bluff (3-4% IMO). Folding might encourage people to take shots at you, but you should only factor that it when it is closer than this.

KDawgCometh

06-26-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The hardest part, without the river aggression factor (which, sans-read, is the most important number we can have here), is trying to assign to him a reasonable bluffing portion. Josh thinks it's like 1%. I think it's a lot higher -- probably not 10% but definitely not 1%. Somewhere in between. That mitigates the cost of a calldown a lot, and when we're able to get something solid, assuming we'll be playing against this guy again, it's worthwhile.

In isolation, I think it's really close. If I had notes, it's easy to swing this to a call or a fold. If I knew his river aggression was .5, it's an easy fold; if it's 1.5, it's a call.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I really now think a fold here is the smart play. Here's why, the ag factor certainly comes into play, but let us not forget that he led at the flop. I don't see how a player with this low of an ag factor would lead at the flop in to the PF raiser on a board that is extremely likely to hit. expecially if the villian pays anything resembling attention to jason's play. So the villian is betting into a player like jason(who isn't exactly the loosest player on this board) with less than a King? I'm not really sure of that. wouldn't it make more sense if he has a hand like J10 to check call Jason here to hopefully have people tag along. After Jason's raise on the flop the villian slowed down on the turn, so its kinda obvious that he doesn't have two pair here, or a seven. Now on the river he leads into us again when the king pairs. BUt, like I said in my first post, I don't think I have the discipline to fold this here, mainly cause I can be a sadist sometimes in situations like this /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Keith

Trix

06-26-2005, 06:44 PM

I dont think you have enough info to fold.

Justin A

06-26-2005, 07:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe this hand is getting so many replies. Call the bet, expect to be good every once in a while when the guy happens to be donking around, and move onto the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

31/2.5/.9 types don't "donk around"

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes they do. And they usually donk around in all the wrong places, like this one.

jason_t

06-26-2005, 07:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Imo he will have either JT or a flush draw in this spot at least some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think villain thinks that I have that he expects me to fold? Are you saying you'd call with A high here?

Bill C

06-26-2005, 07:44 PM

With only 9BB in the pot, I think I fold this, as I think the chances of us succeeding are less than 10%. The way he's bet, I have to feel like he has a King. I suppose there's some kind of chance he has 77, maybe 1-2%.

By chance I was reading this thread (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=560235&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1) earlier today, and it's very relevant here.

Jason, I appreciate these hands you post. They are always interesting and challenging.

bill c

Nick C

06-26-2005, 07:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imo he will have either JT or a flush draw in this spot at least some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think villain thinks that I have that he expects me to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he thinks you'll fold AA/AQ. Maybe he's not thinking too much about what hand you might actually fold and is just betting because it's his only chance to win. Maybe he has ace-high and now hopes he'll at least be chopping and is betting because he wants to call but isn't thinking ahead to what he'll do if he gets raised.

I don't think any of what I just mentioned is particuarly likely (especially that last part about ace-high), but I have seen some very optimistic river bluffs at Party 2/4, versus players who were much less inclined to fold a hand than I am.

Klepton

06-26-2005, 08:29 PM

this post makes me very angry

the simple thing is this - one out of 9 times you are good, so call.

i don't even think 200-400 players make this laydown

jason_t

06-26-2005, 08:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this post makes me very angry

the simple thing is this - one out of 9 times you are good, so call.

i don't even think 200-400 players make this laydown

[/ QUOTE ]

this post makes me very angry

the simple thing is this - you gave no reason to support that one out of 9 times I am good.

i don't even think 200-400 is similar enough to 2-4 for a comparison to be fair

soweak.

06-26-2005, 08:49 PM

I would have to see what his W$WTS stat is here.

Also, how do you appear to the table? How is your river aggression? Obviously this is a place where only a King can bet, but does your opponent know this? I think I would have to have his bluff probability be fairly low to fold here.

Justin A

06-26-2005, 09:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imo he will have either JT or a flush draw in this spot at least some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think villain thinks that I have that he expects me to fold? Are you saying you'd call with A high here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't you say villain is 31/2.5? I wouldn't be giving this guy much credit for thinking.

Guruman

06-26-2005, 10:25 PM

I call because the I think the bluff factor puts me over the top.

Harrington says to always figure a minimum bluff factor of about 10%, even with weak/tight players. Granted that's for tourney play where chips don't matter as much, but I think the concept of never putting an opponents bluff factor at zero is important in situations like this.

I'd still put his bluff factor somewhere around 5% here. (I could go even higher given the info provided) That means he only has to hold something like AhQx, JhQx, or JhJx about 5% of the time for you to be good here.

I think a read on how he percieves your play would go a long way here as well. If he's seen you lay down hands on later streets when you were beat he could be more inclined to bet here with a queen or a PP > 7. This is especially true when you consider that every so often he could just as easily see this action and think [I've got his little pp counterfeited with my PP - I should bet]

scrub

06-26-2005, 11:02 PM

mtdoak

06-26-2005, 11:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
River: (8 BB) K (2 players)
MP1 bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Kick a puppy and call.

ANason21

06-27-2005, 12:09 AM

A bet and call (instead of a reraise) on the flop implies that he is on a draw. The check on fourth street further implies that he has a draw hand, as he is avoiding a raise, and only calling a bet.

The bet on the river is an ill-advised attempt to make you think he has made three kings.

Or, he has 77 is his pocket, and you beat him.

Call or raise, no fold here.

dealer_toe

06-27-2005, 12:22 AM

I make a crying call, the little percent of the time that he is pulling a bonehead bluff gives you good enough odds for the call...then I vomit.

oreogod

06-27-2005, 03:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]

i don't even think 200-400 players make this laydown

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be an easy call if its a 200-400 player. But its not.

oreogod

06-27-2005, 05:34 AM

That said while in the middle of the hand I probably call. But looking at it out of the situation I dont like the call.

Either way intresting hand.

flair1239

06-27-2005, 12:52 PM

Thought about this over the weekend. I guess yes it seems pretty straight forward. He most likely has a king. At 31% and 2% VPIP there are enough King hands he would open limp with. I Imagaine the only 2 or three King hands he would raise would be AKs, AK, and KK. But the 31% also opens up a bunch of other hands where the flop and turn would play the same.

At 2/4 with a 31% VPIP, I imagaine his see the flop % is a bit higher. Maybe around 35%-39%??? If this is the case a .9 aggression rating is not horrbily passive, as it would maybe be if his numbers were 18/2/.9. We are all familiar with this condition in super fish... for instance a 55/15/1, I think we would all say this player is probably pretty aggressive. So I think this concept apllies here as well, although to a lesser extent. The reason I go into this, is that I think a player with these type of stats is capable of trickery on occasion.

The reason I feel this is significant is, that to make this fold for (1) bet we have to be 90% sure. Sthief09 stated earlier that this was an easy fold, and that the reason we play aginst predictable players is because we can make this fold. I agree that in a smaller pot this would be the case, I also agree that one of the benefits of these type of players is that there are a lot of situations where you can save bets. However I don't think this is one them.

I don't think it is outlandish that he might have taken a poke with a draw (on the flop).. maybe a big draw (JTs). But if it was a draw it was probably a flush draw. As for not bluffing, well if there was ever a time to bluff, this would be the time. As someone said earlier, AQ probably hits the muck here for many people.

The other thing is, if this is a mistake in this situation, it cannot be a big one. I have not really looked into it, but rarely in Holdem, am I in a situation where I fear boat over boat. Also a couple of past situations come to mind where fish have bet into me on a double paired board when I am holding a flush or a three flush board that came on the river when I hold a straight, and I have made a frustration call and been suprised.

So only having to be right 10% of the time and also really not thinking it is a big deal one way or the other, I think there are enough possbilities, to call one bet when you are closing the action.

As far as my braking point in making this fold I would say that 7-1 just might make me fold. But 9-1 it is just to close.

VBM

06-27-2005, 01:47 PM

fold, call, raise?

pudley4

06-27-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands.

I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, I raise, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, I bet, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold (unless you've seen a donk-bet-bluff from this player before).

He has to be bluffing >10% of the time in order for your call to be correct. For every 1% less than 10 that he's bluffing, you're costing yourself .1BB. So if he only bluffs 5%, you lose .5BB every time you call. If he's bluffing 2%, you lose .8BB by calling.

From the way he's played it, and the profile you have, it's a fold.

pudley4

06-27-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A bet and call (instead of a reraise) on the flop implies that he is on a draw. The check on fourth street further implies that he has a draw hand, as he is avoiding a raise, and only calling a bet.

The bet on the river is an ill-advised attempt to make you think he has made three kings.

Or, he has 77 is his pocket, and you beat him.

Call or raise, no fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yuk

1 - Betting out when the PFR is next to act is good for thinning the field, so it's more likely MP has a made hand (like top pair) than it is he's on a draw. If he's on a draw, he needs to be concerned that Hero will raise, and end up knocking out the very players he wants to stay in the hand.
2 - MP doesn't have to be on a draw to call the flop raise (and not reraise). He could still do this with top pair because A) he's passive, and B) he's now afraid hero has him beat (either a higher kicker, or a higher pair)
3 - MP would check-call the turn with a K because he thinks he's still behind.
4 - MP will bet out on the river because his K-with-a-crappy-kicker just caught up to Hero's AK (or just beat hero's AA)
5 - If MP has 77 in his pocket, he wins with 7777K vs QQQKK
6 - Hero raising this river is absolutely retarded.