renodoc
06-24-2005, 12:44 PM
For you math inclined folks, please critique, point out my errors, etc. Thanks.
BB= maniac with huge stack who has knocked out two people with trash.
EP and MP are limpers
I have about 1600
Button fairly tight with about 750.
Blinds 25-50
Two limpers to me.
I raise with AKs to 250. (pot 425)
Button raises all-in to 750. (pot 1175)
BB re raises essentially all-in (main pot 1925, uncalled sidepot 850)
Limpers fold.
I can now fold or call. If I call, main pot will be 2425 and side pot 1700
If I put Button on AA-88, and maybe AK-AQ, and maniac on any two cards, what is my EV of calling?
*********************************
Side pot:
I think the chances of maniac having AA or KK is extremely low.
So just on a purely random distribution:
AA or KK: 0.45% He is ahead 8-1 on AA and 7-3 on KK
Pair QQ or lower: about 5% He is ahead about 55-45 on these.
any other hand I am ahead of or tied with. I would put the rest of these hands at somewhere between 50-50 and 70-30 in my favor. I would say average 65%. (not sure if this is correct though) If he has a hand like A7 or Kx I actually have him dominated over 70%.
Unpaired hands 94% win 65% = 61% win side pot.
Pair: 5% win 45% = 2 % win
AA/KK 0.5% win 20% = 0.1% win
Total percentage of winning side pot is at least 63%.
Main pot:
I think this is straightforward to assume button has either a big pair or a small pair.
Big pair I lose most of the time.
Small pair I flip. 45%.
*************
So if I fold, I have 1350 in chips, below average but perfectly fine for this stage of the tourney.
If I call, I have about 40% or so of winning everything and having 4125 and can bully the table.
About another 25% of losing the main pot and winning the side pot and having 1700 (where I was)
And 35% chance of busting out.
BB= maniac with huge stack who has knocked out two people with trash.
EP and MP are limpers
I have about 1600
Button fairly tight with about 750.
Blinds 25-50
Two limpers to me.
I raise with AKs to 250. (pot 425)
Button raises all-in to 750. (pot 1175)
BB re raises essentially all-in (main pot 1925, uncalled sidepot 850)
Limpers fold.
I can now fold or call. If I call, main pot will be 2425 and side pot 1700
If I put Button on AA-88, and maybe AK-AQ, and maniac on any two cards, what is my EV of calling?
*********************************
Side pot:
I think the chances of maniac having AA or KK is extremely low.
So just on a purely random distribution:
AA or KK: 0.45% He is ahead 8-1 on AA and 7-3 on KK
Pair QQ or lower: about 5% He is ahead about 55-45 on these.
any other hand I am ahead of or tied with. I would put the rest of these hands at somewhere between 50-50 and 70-30 in my favor. I would say average 65%. (not sure if this is correct though) If he has a hand like A7 or Kx I actually have him dominated over 70%.
Unpaired hands 94% win 65% = 61% win side pot.
Pair: 5% win 45% = 2 % win
AA/KK 0.5% win 20% = 0.1% win
Total percentage of winning side pot is at least 63%.
Main pot:
I think this is straightforward to assume button has either a big pair or a small pair.
Big pair I lose most of the time.
Small pair I flip. 45%.
*************
So if I fold, I have 1350 in chips, below average but perfectly fine for this stage of the tourney.
If I call, I have about 40% or so of winning everything and having 4125 and can bully the table.
About another 25% of losing the main pot and winning the side pot and having 1700 (where I was)
And 35% chance of busting out.