sub 50%

[JJKillian]

Past 4 days at 200sngs played and sitting below 50% on my showdowns. At first no biggie it will equal out. But at this point I am really starting to wonder if I am at the worst it is going to get or if I am truly doing something wrong.

I have approx 1500 sngs in total. Am a profitable player at all lvls up to 100's. Well not sure about the 100's after past 4 days.

Would love to post some examples, but all that does is get flames.

I am truly asking for help here not sympathy, please tell me how to go about it, so I get something productive out of it instead of wah wah wah. hehe.

JJ

[kyro]

Nobody is going to be able to help you with that kind of information. That's like going up to a hitting coach and having this conversation.

You: I keep striking out. What is wrong?
Coach: Um. You're not hitting the ball?
You: Well what do I need to do to change it?
Coach: Start hitting the ball?

[pergesu]

Dump your weaker hands and only go to showdown with your stronger ones.

[skipperbob]

I'm going to try to be helpful; not usual "SFB" smartass, so will my enemies please cool their jets just this once?

To say that "I'm below 50% on my showdowns" is complete gibberish...do you mean "I'm below 50% on my 50/50 coinflips"???...If so, How far below?...How many?...If you have had 1000 real 50/50 situations and had fewer than 380 winners, then the game is probably rigged /images/graemlins/shocked.gif...But, did you really keep track?...Were they really 50/50? or were some of them actually closer to 40/60?...How concerned are you about "today's" results? Really concerned/A little concerned/Couldn't care less ?....

ALL PLAYERS HAVE LOSING DAYS
ALL PLAYERS HAVE LOSING WEEKS
LOTS OF GOOD PLAYERS HAVE LOSING MONTHS
SOME REALLY-GOOD PLAYERS HAVE LOSING YEARS

How sideways are you about a 4-day loser?

[Myst]

We cant tell you whats wrong with your game because you didnt provide us with enough information.

But I feel ya pain though. Ive been running sub 50% on my showdowns for the past 2 weeks. It happens. Just gotta be psychologically strong enough to withstand it, and move forward.

[JJKillian]

You know you bring up a good point. I really need to start keeping better track of all my games. I am just going off the party poker stats they give. From what I have seen of that these are only the percentages to showdown. So steals etc are not in there. But I normally run in the high 60's to low 70's. I am a sick tight player, and am usually in with the best of it.

So when I say showdown percentage it is all showdowns. Coin flips, dominated situations (for me or against me), 60/40's, over pair vs under pair. For the most part it is mainly ai's.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Past 4 days at 200sngs played and sitting below 50% on my showdowns.
JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

It is an absolute, fundamental mistake to be concerned about your showdown percentage, for so many reasons. And I'm not talking about variance. Think it through.

[JJKillian]

That was part of my question. I have posted hand histories here before that end in a bad beat. And all they do is get flamed. So it is like a catch 22, if you post you get flamed, if ya don't post then no one can help hehe.

But you actually kind of answered my question. 200 games I guess still isn't enough to base anything on. Providing your playing your game and not tilting. Yeah I have got mad during this, but I get up walk away and come back just fine.

thanks

JJ

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
You know you bring up a good point. I really need to start keeping better track of all my games. I am just going off the party poker stats they give. From what I have seen of that these are only the percentages to showdown. So steals etc are not in there. But I normally run in the high 60's to low 70's. I am a sick tight player, and am usually in with the best of it.

So when I say showdown percentage it is all showdowns. Coin flips, dominated situations (for me or against me), 60/40's, over pair vs under pair. For the most part it is mainly ai's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this information, I can with 99% confidence tell you that your problem is one of 3 scenarios.

1. You've been getting it in with the worst of it and you are not playing well.

2. You are getting it in with the best of it and been getting unlucky.

3. A mixture of 2 and 3.

I hope this helps.

[skipperbob]

Maybe I misunderstood your post?...and, you can help me with a question /images/graemlins/smile.gif
When you said "showdown statistics less than 50%" did you mean the stats obtained by right-clicking your seat while playing?...If so, aren't thos stats just for the current session?...If so, how do you know what they were for all 200 SnG's?

[Bluff Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
That was part of my question. I have posted hand histories here before that end in a bad beat. And all they do is get flamed.

[/ QUOTE ]

well what do you want someone to tell you, dont get sucked out on?

[The Venetian]

I would make the argument that if you're not below 50% on showdowns, you're not being aggressive enough. The hands that can call your all-ins and raises are going to be higher quality than the ones you'd raise and push with.

Over my last couple thousand SNG's, 4-handed, when I raise first in and the hand goes to showdown, I win about 43% of the time. I assume these are the types of situations you're worried about.

For the month of June, I'm running 31% in this spot so far, which is beyond awful. Knowing this, however, is the only thing keeping me sane right now.

[JJKillian]

yes............and my sessions are generally 8 hours at a time without shutting down the app. At the end of all 4 days I was below 50%.

Most days are around 5k hands played. So I see what your getting at, but it isn't like one day of 200 hands played was 45% and a 5k day was 58% then two more 200 hand days at 30% so I avg them out incorrectly to x%. All days are all within a 4k to 5.5k hands played range.

It is also a very rough, at best, stat monitor. The thing is buggy I think. It doesn't always update correctly from what I have seen. But what I was getting at is with 200 sngs and that many hands played (I play mtts as well). It is usually x amt now out of the blue it is x amt. I was worried that I am truly making mistakes and it isn't just a dip in variance.

Basically I think what this is, I thought 200 sngs played was enough to be stastically something, whereas after getting feedback from here, it isn't.

JJ

[JJKillian]

see this is what I mean.

No I would rather someone say, hey you pushed a/8s here incorrectly bacause..........instead of stop your crying your a/8 fell to a/4.

JJ

[RicktheRuler]

[ QUOTE ]
Given this information, I can with 99% confidence tell you that your problem is one of 3 scenarios.

1. You've been getting it in with the worst of it and you are not playing well.

2. You are getting it in with the best of it and been getting unlucky.

3. A mixture of 2 and 3.

I hope this helps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats three again? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given this information, I can with 99% confidence tell you that your problem is one of 3 scenarios.

1. You've been getting it in with the worst of it and you are not playing well.

2. You are getting it in with the best of it and been getting unlucky.

3. A mixture of 2 and 3.

I hope this helps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats three again? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

heh. whoops.

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats three again?

[/ QUOTE ]
Spoil-sport /images/graemlins/shocked.gifCan't you tell when somebody is busy being Pooh-Bah /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[JJKillian]

I think my short handed pushing rate is about the same standards as generally "accepted" here. Now I will push with any 2 if I am going to lose fold equity to the blind coming around, which I believe is pretty standard here as well. And will be a tad more aggressive with a large stack. Which I also believe is very standard.

Now along those lines of thinking I will reverse the thought process out for my calling standards out of the bb, IF......and I mean ONLY IF I think the guy has some skills, and is an aggressive player.

I like the point you make though about, maybe you should be below 50%. Now my question to that is, do you get either the bb or sb and bb to fold more than 50% of the time from either the button or sb, respectively? Then also along those lines, I would imagine as the lvl of skill either goes up or down that percentage changes. I would think calling standards go up as the lvl goes up. I would actually think for just as an example the 50 games is of avg standards and it goes lower as you go down or up. I could very possibly be wrong here though............thoughts?

JJ

[curtains]

Ive actually never looked at my showdown %. I have no idea what it is and I think I don't care either.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whats three again?

[/ QUOTE ]
Spoil-sport /images/graemlins/shocked.gifCan't you tell when somebody is busy being Pooh-Bah /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this was supposed to be a kyro pwning, but I didn't get it. So I'm not sure.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
I would make the argument that if you're not below 50% on showdowns, you're not being aggressive enough. The hands that can call your all-ins and raises are going to be higher quality than the ones you'd raise and push with.

Over my last couple thousand SNG's, 4-handed, when I raise first in and the hand goes to showdown, I win about 43% of the time. I assume these are the types of situations you're worried about.

For the month of June, I'm running 31% in this spot so far, which is beyond awful. Knowing this, however, is the only thing keeping me sane right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends what level you're playing. In the lowest levels, people can and will call with almost any holding. It's very easy to get called with worse hands 9 out of 10 or 15 out of 20 times or an even more lopsided margin. Many people basically play just for fun or don't see why it isn't a good idea to call any sized bet, as long as they're in the blinds, or with any face card, or any two suited, etc. There's not really any such thing as a common understanding of how to play that fits pretty much all the players across all the levels. And at the lowest levels, it can be bewilderingly wild sometimes. You definitely won't necessarily see people understanding that you generally need a better hand to call with than to raise with. They want to play!

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

Ive actually never looked at my showdown %. I have no idea what it is and I think I don't care either.

[/ QUOTE ] That's good, because I looked up your showdown %, and it SUCKS.