Poosh/call/what? situations, what would you do?

[brimstone1]

These are all $22s, and if there is one, my table image is always tight.

1. ITM, ATo. BB is loose as hell.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1475)
SB (t1760)
BB (t4765)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero...?



2. 6 left, BB, no reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t965)
Hero (t555)
UTG (t1868)
MP (t3765)
CO (t485)
Button (t362)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t500</font>, Hero...?



3.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1485)
Hero (t915)
UTG (t1590)
MP (t2785)
Button (t1225)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t525</font>, Hero...?



4. I JUST doubled up, blinds are going up in 2 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1645)
Hero (t1697)

BB (t740)
UTG (t1130)
MP (t2788)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t375</font>, folds, Hero...?



5. Getting desperate in chips here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2290)
BB (t1780)
UTG (t1085)
Hero (t670)
Button (t2175)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero...?



6. KK, very early in the tourney.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t715)
MP2 (t645)
MP3 (t1270)
Hero (t630)
Button (t910)
SB (t940)
BB (t1150)
UTG (t560)
UTG+1 (t1180)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 all-in, fold, Hero...?

[chisness]

here's my take:

1. push -- let BB call and equal out your stack, this is a great opportunity
2. fold -- you still have over 4 BB and time to steal or find a hand
3. push -- your stack sucks, taking a coinflip (or maybe even against A5-) would be fine
4. fold -- i like 16 BB and find that raises are generally from good hands on party
5. push -- stack sucks and you'll even get called by lots of worse hands
6. instantly call -- and see anything from A4o to JTs

[45suited]

1) push
2) fold
3) fold
4) fold
5) push
6) push

For me, #3 was the only close call. I would fold and OP later myself.

[Slim Pickens]

1) Hero minraises and then pushes when the flop is checked to him. Risky? Yeah, but I still think you've FE on the flop if BB calls, and if he pushes preflop you've probably induced a favorable bluff to call. If SB calls, same deal. If SB pushes, probably have to call. All of your chips are going in the pot in any case, but the minraise might be a way to get them in there with as many others and still maintain almost the same probability of winning the pot without a showdown.

2)fold
3)push (although it may be a leak in my game that I push these kinds of hands with mid PP's)
4)push
5)push
6)call and lose when one of his two kings completes the 4-flush on the board.

[chisness]

how about a followup question -- what range do we like on all of these? i'll finish the rest later

1. push range: A2+, K6+, Q8+, J9+, 22+
2. call range:
3. push range:
4. push range: AQ?, AK, TT?, JJ+
5. push range:
6. call range: QQ+

[Myst]

1. Push
2. Fold
3. Fold
4. Fold
5. Push
6. Push

3 is a clear fold.. Id rather steal than force a coinflip. I only take coinflips when I HAVE to.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
3 is a clear fold.. Id rather steal than force a coinflip. I only take coinflips when I HAVE to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think I'd get anyone agreeing with me on #3. I would much rather steal than force a coinflip as well. I dont think that the OP is desperate enough to have to do this.

[chisness]

3 is significantly +EV as long as the button has even a decently loose range, which he probably does

with that said and the need to build up the stack, i still like the call

edit: if the guy raising were in earlier position, i'd agree with folding, but here i like it

[squire]

1.push- great cards short handed, i am pushing here with A7+ and any pp
2.fold he prob has nothin but i wait to be 1st in the pot with that stack
3.fold i think at best your a coin flip, at worst dominated by higher pp
4.fold again i wait to be 1st in the pot here clear fold for me
5.push you cant wait for something better
6.call yes 1 in a 100 times he turns over AA but this is an instant call for me.
i only play the $11s though
holla

[45suited]

Yeah, but the only thing is, button is in a spot where HE is not desperate, yet he is risking 43% of his stack to pick up 225 worth of blinds. Plus, the OP will still have &gt; 4 BB if he folds here. Haven't done the math on this one, but I think that he can still steal later himself, so I fold here.

[deathpotato]

1. Push, and hope he calls with his J9

2. Fold, you still have 4.5BB left and can wait for a better spot

3. Stop and go (I've been having a lot of success doing this lately)

4. Fold, UTG raise represents strength and you aren't desperate for chips

5. Push, you have a strong hand and very few chips

6. Call, folding is completely ridiculous here

[chisness]

3 seems to be the only one that doesn't have a consensus. I don't think a stop 'n go here is an option because he cannot fold on the flop regardless of what it is.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Stop and go (I've been having a lot of success doing this lately)

[/ QUOTE ]


The pot will be 1515 and button will only have to call 390. Can't really see it working here...

[deathpotato]

The fact that he shouldn't fold on the flop doesn't mean that he won't. I get folds very frequently doing this, and you're actually laying him less than 3:1 odds on the flop, so he'll be incorrect to call with overcards if he whiffs.

Edit: ^^ won't the pot be 1125? Button 525 SB 75 hero 525

[chisness]

i think its very unlikely he folds and if he does you miss out on some useful chips

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: ^^ won't the pot be 1125? Button 525 SB 75 hero 525

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus, hero's flop push of 390 = 1515

But the more I look at it, a stop-n-go could work here. I still fold pre-flop, but a stop-n-go is much better than pushing pre-flop. I shouldn't have dismissed it so quickly.

[deathpotato]

Hero's equity before hand: .1315
Hero's equity if we fold: .1124

Give button a fairly tight range of 22+, A2+, K9+, K7s+, QJ, QJs - hero is around 39.5% vs. this range

EV win = .2425
.395 * .2425 = .96 = EV push

Pushing pf is 0.8% of the prize pool worse than folding given this fairly tight range. Loosening the range shouldn't have much of an effect, though. This actually surprises me, I expected a push to be +$EV.

Stop and go:
Assume he calls 100% of the time he holds a pair, and 75% of the time he hits his overcards on the flop. Ignore the times anyone flops a set/2pair or hits a flush, or you draw out on someone after they draw out on you - it's late and I don't want to be doing this all night.

He has a pair almost exactly 20% of the time. His pair beats yours 2/3 of the time. Whoever is behind draws out ~8.5% of the time. So when he has a pair, your EV is:

1/3 * .915 * .2425 = .074 He has a lower pair
2/3 * .085 * .2425 = .014 He has a higher pair
.074 + .014 = .088 = EV when he holds a pair

He doesn't have a pair 80% of the time. 23.4% of the time he will hold a card lower than your 66. 17.3% of the time he will flop a pair to his high card, 17.3% of the time he will flop to his low card. When he flops to his low card, you win 80.0% of the time; when he flops a higher pair you win 8.6% of the time. He whiffs, for simplicity's sake, 65.4% of the time. When he calls with 1 overcard he will miss 87.5% of the time; with two overcards he will miss 75.9% of the time.

Your EV for when he holds a card lower than your 66 is:
.654 * .25 * .2008 = .033 He folds his overcard
.654 * .75 * .875 * .2425 = 0.104 He calls with 1 overcard
.173 * .80 * .2425 = .034 He calls with a lower pair
.173 * .086 * .2425 = .004 He calls with a higher pair
.033 + .104 + .034 + .004 = .175 = EV when he holds an unpaired card lower than 6

Your EV for when he holds two cards above 6 is:
.654 * .25 * .2008 = .033 He folds his overcards
.654 * .75 * .759 * .2425 = .090 He calls with his overcards (0.9/3 is less than your EV when he folds his overcards. This is interesting, as it shows that, from an ICM standpoint, you would actually rather have him fold the flop with two overcards - barely.)
.346 * .087 * .2425 = 0.007 He calls with a pair
.033 + .090 + .007 = 0.130 = EV when he holds two unpaired cards above 6

So, now that all that is done (it's 4AM and I'm sure I've made some mistakes, but this looks roughly right) we have:

20% of the time your EV is .088 (He holds a pair)
80% * .234 of the time your EV is .175 (He holds a card lower than 6)
80% * .766 of the time your EV is .130 (He holds two cards higher than 6)

.2 * .088 = .0176
.8 * .234 * .175 = .03276
.8 * .766 * .130 = .079664

.0176 + .03276 + .079664 = .130

Recall that your equity is .1124 if you fold. A stop and go given these assumptions is therefore better than folding preflop.

There's obviously some rounding in this math, and I've probably made an error or two, but I doubt they are very significant. You can argue with my 75% call figure, but from my experience (I have made similar plays quite a few times) this is quite realistic. Anyway, I'm exhausted, so I'm off to bed. Feel free to pick apart this math or my thinking if you're up to it. In the end, if button will occasionally fold the flop (you may not think anyone would, but I have seen people make this fold quite a lot), I think the stop and go is the right play here.

[deathpotato]

Of course, duh, silly me - good thing I stopped playing last night. I am still quite sure that button will fold sometimes on the flop, though.

[lastchance]

I really like stop and going here. Need to go to lunch, will add more later.

[deathpotato]

Bump - you're online and I'd like to get some discussion going again here.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Hero minraises and then pushes when the flop is checked to him. Risky? Yeah, but I still think you've FE on the flop if BB calls, and if he pushes preflop you've probably induced a favorable bluff to call. If SB calls, same deal. If SB pushes, probably have to call. All of your chips are going in the pot in any case, but the minraise might be a way to get them in there with as many others and still maintain almost the same probability of winning the pot without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is going to flame me for this?

SlimP

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. Stop and go (I've been having a lot of success doing this lately)

[/ QUOTE ]


The pot will be 1515 and button will only have to call 390. Can't really see it working here...

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen players fold getting 6:1 preflop on Party 22s. Just because you know a call is automatic doesn't mean your opponent does. You have SOME fold equity here -- even if it's just missclick fold equity.

And those who say fold and push later might not play many low stakes games. Players are very active at these levels and it is likely there will be limpers and mini-raisers in the next few hands causing you to lose your chance to push. Even if you do get one clean push and go uncalled, it isn't enough. You can't afford to just maintain your stack at this stage. When the blinds go up, you've all but lost FE.

Furthermore, if you try to rebuild your stack by pushing when you're down to 4 BBs, you're going to have to do a LOT of pushing, which to these players equates to insulting their manhood, so there will be spite calls.

Whether you want to or not, you're going to have to race to get back into this tournament, be it calling here or pushing into a 40/60 later. I'd rather just stop and go while I'm probably the favorite -- even if I'm just a small one.