Hand to Talk About

[Mason Malmuth]

Here's a simple hand that I played in a $30-$60 game at The Bellagio last night that has some merit for discussion.

I had only been in the game for a few minutes when I was dealt a pair of aces. An unknown player limped in, I raised, and only the two of us saw the flop after he called.

The flop was 8-6-5. Suits don't matter for this discussion, but the flop was not all the same suit. My opponent checked, I bet, and he called.

The turn was another five. My opponent bet and I called.

The river was a jack. My opponent checked, I bet, he called and my hand was good. (I never saw his hand.)

All comments welcome.

MM

[PokerPrince]

I'de like to know why you simply called his turn bet. Thinking he may attempt a bluff again on the river perhaps? If he did hold a five he would surely checkraise you on the turn instead of just betting out. Explain what was going through your head when you were playing this hand please.

PokerPrince

[Billy LTL]

Putting myself in your opponent's shoes:

I limp. You bet. The flop shows us a medium straight draw and I check, you bet. The turn pairs the board, I BET you call.

If he had any kind of hand at all (a set or a straight) on the turn he should/would have check-raised so you know your AA is still good.

The problem facing you is how to maximize the remaining bets to enter the pot.

I think you should have raised the turn.

True, he might have folded then and there but equally he might have paid to see the river as he obviously had some kind of pair (44?). Would he have called the river bet after being raised on the turn and failing to improve? Given what you've told us about this hand I think the rewards of raising the turn would justify the risks involved.

Best of luck, Billy (LTL)

[Ginogino]

Mason:
I am unfamiliar with the level of skill at the Bellagio $30/$60 game, so I can't speak with any confidence as to what the open-limp might mean, but when your opponent check-calls your flop bet you have to figure that the flop has given him some prospects for the straight draw -- something like pocket 9's, 7's or 4's or something like 89s, which also gives him a pair and a straight draw (possibly gutshot) going into the turn.

His lead-bet on the turn probably doesn't indicate trip 5's (he is unknown to you, but wouldn't most folks try to check-raise you if they held trips?). So he is probably looking at two pair with some kind of straight draw -- wouldn't this be an opportunity to push you off an overcard hand, if that's what you held here?

I assume that your lead-bet on the river was influenced by the idea that the river didn't improve him, and (from his viewpoint) might have helped you if you held overcards (to jacks and fives), so that you couldn't count on him to bet if you checked and give you a chance to check-raise the river. I'd guess that you might have gone for a check-raise if the river had been a three or deuce.

Why not raise his turn bet? I'd suppose mostly this was a result of not knowing him (would he try for a check-raise if he'd hit trips?) and to give you a chance to improve if he had hit trips. If you raise the turn and he re-raises, what do you do? Merely calling the turn gives you a chance to improve and allows you to find out something (how frisky your opponent is) on the relatively cheap.

Gino

[Kevin J]

If he did hold a five he would surely checkraise you on the turn instead of just betting out.

Not necessarily. A sophisticated opponent may try for 3 bets.

[Broyle Dunson]

I havnt read the others but with the flop being coordinated like that your in a huge lead heads up or next to dead most likely as any hand that beat aces there would be a made straight or set,but you dont want to give a free card with that board that would hit his kicker if he has a pair or complete a draw so the board also dictates the flop bet.Also he may chase you with only overcards as the board wont look as scary to him and he will "take one off".I dont know his experience level but his bet on the turn means he did a "Im going to call so I mite as well bet",OR he mistakenly thought his hand improved to 2 pair and was good,OR he made a play, OR he stuck a bad one on you and your now way behind.At any rate you could raise yourself off this hand on the turn if you raised and he repopped you,and if hes out of line you,d lose a river bluff bet by him,or he might catch his overcard and call the river so it seems a call by you on the turn has a double benefit,so I like the call as oppossed to an information raise or Heaven forbid a fold.His check on the river dictates a bet by you and he calls.You made an extra 60 and lessened your exposure.I mostly play 15/30 so if im way off be gentle.

[Vehn]

I posted a similar hand (http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=192233& page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) in small stakes the other day and received a lot of the same responses, i.e. "you missed bets". However I tend to disagree. I think most players who have some sort of clue fold on the turn when popped unless you have a history of being supertricky here. He does not have the pot odds to go for his presumed 5 (or worse) outer. You want him to continue to call or bet into you with the worse hand, not fold, plus you protect yourself from getting "outplayed" if he actually does have the better hand.

[Diplomat]

I tend to agree, for the reasons you mention, and some others.

Specifically, say the bettor has a hand like A8s, 99. If he bets the turn and does not get raised, he might think his hand is good, and bet/call the river, depending on how scary the board turns out. If he bets the turn and is raised, he might a) think he is drawing thin or dead and fold right there; b) only call/raise the river if he improves signifigantly, in which case Mason looses extra bets (3 or 4 instead of 2)

I like the flat call on the turn, because it pretty much guarentees one more bet going into the pot on the river, either by mason or by the bettor. Ok, the bettor may have been bluffing with a straight draw or something, but he might try it again on the river if a blank hits. Mason's flat call conceals his hand -- if I were raised on the turn, I would probably muck unless I had a five or a huge draw. However if my bet was flat-called, I would have difficulty putting Mason on a hand -- AA? JTs? 44?

Unless the player is quite loose or trying to snap off a bluff, I doubt he would call a turn raise and a river bet with a hand like A8.

Just my two cents, probably way off here -- just how I think. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[mike l.]

i think you played it very well. on the turn most players would raise and that is a mistake.

"The river was a jack. My opponent checked, I bet, he called and my hand was good."

what i want to know is would you have value-raised the river if he bet again?

[Noo Yawk]

If you raise the turn, it could cost you more if you're behind and make you less if your ahead. By playing the way Mason did he was able to gain a bet on the river. This type of play will either make you one more bet or cost you only one more bet. Particularly in a heads up situation with an unknown player. Too many players like to get aggressive here, and end up overplaying hands that are way ahead or way behind. Over the course of time losing one extra bet when you win, and putting in 2 extra bets when you lose is huge difference in your overall win rate.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Broyle:

I think you have this about right. The key to this hand is to realize that when the second five hits and your opponent bets, you may be badly beaten, or you have your opponent badly beaten, but you don't know which, and may not even be sure which is more likely.

Notice that in either case you only want to call. If he has you badly beaten, your raise will only cost additional money, and if you have him badly beaten your raise will probably cause him to fold. Thus by checking you may save a bet or gain a bet.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Vehn:

I agree that many players will think that I played this to passively and should have put in a raise on the turn. But I also think that they are wrong. While aggression is often good in poker, there are clear spots where it is not correct and this, in my opinion, is one of them. It might be different if there were players behind me.

Best wishes,
mason

[Mason Malmuth]

what i want to know is would you have value-raised the river if he bet again?

Hi Mike:

The answer is no, and the reason is the same as in my posts above.

Best wishes,
mason

[mike l.]

it's a very small sample size, but your hands to talk about have consistently featured you playing strong hands in a weak tight manner. that's unfortunate since aggression is clearly a very important part of winning hold em play.

we agree on the turn smooth call here, but for different reasons. the way i see it you dont want to scare off a heads up opponent you likely have badly beat. the way you see it there is a significant chance you are badly beat.

i think fearing you are against a better hand here borders on irrational. it's clear that your opponent is very likely just messing w/ you on the turn and hoping you will laydown overcards.

i would value raise the river if bet into every time and expect to be paid off by all sort of hands.

[anatta]

It funny that guys always bet out on the turn when the board pairs, but when they really do have trips, they check-raise. I know I do.

On the turn, its remotely possible that your opponent has you beat, so just calling is better than raising if you are behind. Its much more likely your opponent is drawing dead, in which case, he will probably fold if you raise, so again calling is better.

If you knew that he had something like 77, 99 or T9, then raising would be the better play but not by much. By failing to show strength on the turn, you are much more likely to induce a bluff on the river, plus you save a bet when he hits his draw.

[drewjustdrew]

It would take a very tricky player to check-raise a strong hand with this board. Too tricky for 99% of players I would guess. Since he checked, he most likely is beat, only because your hand is fairly strong. Maybe he bluffed the turn with overcards, but he had a jack and was trying to induce a bet from you. He knows you would not call a raise unless he is behind, so he just calls.

There was no need for you to raise on the turn as there are very few hands he could have that would call or worse without having you beat.

[tewall]

Mason's play has marked him as likely having an over-pair. The unknown player is likely to have a pair himself. Either he flopped a set or he didn't. It would take a tricky player to bet out on the turn with a set rather than check-raising, so that would argue for a value-raise. OTOH given that the opponent knows an over-pair is likely, what sort of hands would you expect to get paid off with? Raising a bet on the river seems risky because the hand is so well defined.

[tewall]

This is a different situation though. On the turn you don't want to raise because you'll not only cost yourself extra money if the guy has you beat, but you'll drive him off if he doesn't. Here you don't need to worry about driving him off, so the only question is how likely he is to have a hand that beats yours given his play.

[mike l.]

of course i dont know the specific opponent he was against, but there are several scenarios possible in the 30-60 games ive played in:

--opp. has a pair of 8s or 6s that are vulnerable to overcards so he doesnt want to give AK (or whatever) a free card.

--opp. is trying to represent a pair or better and scare off overcards or a small pair. this could be done w/ a 7 in his hand, or not. it could also be done if the turn card made two of a suit on board. it could also be done on a pure bluff w/ overcards like QJ.

--opp. is value betting a pair of 8s (or an unlikely 99 or TT) or 6s or smaller pair on the turn in hopes that AK (or AQ or AJ) will call him down but not improve.

--opp. may have a made straight or a 5 or full house, but these of course are very unlikely hands and his betting pattern of the hand almost completely rules this out unless he is very smart and tricky. if you think about it, the opp.'s turn bet looks like a bet he wants to see mason fold to, not a bet he wants to see called or raised.

however he of course may have bet a pair figuring he could easily fold if raised because now w/ the 5 pairing he is drawing to 2 outs (instead of 5) to catch up to an overpair. im almost certain this is exactly what happened given the river action, and this of course is where mason earned himself an extra big bet. however, as i pointed out before, his reasoning for not raising the turn was flawed (weak tight/scared), although it did happen to be the correct play.

also mason has not revealed his hand to be an overpair in any way shape or form. all he did was raise preflop from a late position, bet the flop when checked to, and only called when bet into on the turn (the vast majority of players would mistakenly autoraise w/ an overpair on the turn here).

that all said, it would not have been at all unusual for more aggressive 30-60 players (at least in LA) to value bet their pair of 8s (or 6s or 3s) here figuring to get crying calls from all A high hands. so a raise would clearly be in order from AA (etc, etc) in order to put the opp. in the frustrating crying call position w/ their pair. it is not a raise that will get called all the time, but since there is less fear of being reraised (given the peculiar betting pattern of the hand, and the fact that some players would be afraid to 3 bet w/ a 5 or even a straight on the river) and since your hand is so strong (aces up) there is plenty of value in a river raise here. it would be a significant mistake to just call here if bet into barring any great player reads, etc.

there are meta-hand concerns here as well but ill let others elaborate.

[tewall]

Thanks for your comments. I agree about the turn bet, that it makes it unlikely Mason is beat. The point about Mason possibly having overcards is well taken too. However, it is certainly likely that Mason has an overpair, so it's hard to see why a guy with a low pair would bet on the river. But is certainly seems possible, and I'd have to agree with you that this scenario is much more likely than that the fellow is being tricky with turn bet and has Mason beat.

[skp]

The rationale for your turn play is clear.

But in this spot, raising has its advantages as well. Firstly, if there was a flush draw on the flop or turn, then there is a distinct possibility that your opponent may be semibluffing with a flush draw or with a 7 in his hand. If you raise him, you charge him for that draw.

Note however that if the fella will bluff on the river when you just call the turn and will checkfold the river when you raise on the turn, you don't really miss out on not having raised the turn and in fact may save some money if the draw gets there on the river.

But where I think raising is helpful is that it allows you to do the same thing when you have AQ instead of AA.

Just last night, I had a very similar hand. I had AQ on the button and raised. Both blinds and an early limper called.

Flop: 854 rainbow.

I bet and only the bb calls.

Turn: 8

bb bets. I raise. He folds. I suspect he folded a 5 or 4.

Now, that's tougher to pull off if you are known to just call with AA in this spot although I guess you could camoflauge your AQ raises by raising with TT, JJ, and perhaps QQ (where there is a greater need to raise than with KK or AA).

As another poster here likes to say...just some thoughts....

[mikelow]

Really, there isn't much to talk about on this hand. You play it weak-tight, and expect to get kudos from everyone.

I would value-raise on the river if bet into because I think I still have the best hand.

[astroglide]

"we agree on the turn smooth call here, but for different reasons. the way i see it you dont want to scare off a heads up opponent you likely have badly beat. the way you see it there is a significant chance you are badly beat."

hard to conjure up a better 2 sentences than those. nice post!

[cero_z]

Hi Mason:
I think there's a good reason to value raise the river if you get the chance that was not discussed. It's this: by calling the turn, you've grown the pot to a decent size, and most average or worse-playing opponents will now have a hard time getting away from it for just one more bet. I think this means he'll call with many of those hands which you have badly beaten, and they now outweigh the hands that beat you badly. But this assumes a (fairly) weak opponent compared to an expert.