Double Gutter

[PokerFink]

I haven't seen villian do anything noteworthy. My image is probably somewhat loose if villian has been paying attention, which is doubtful considering he is a short-buyer.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($90.85)</font>
SB ($395.65)
BB ($179.45)
UTG ($50)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($51.40)</font>
MP1 ($35.80)
MP2 ($103.80)
CO ($94)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6.50) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $5, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($16.50) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($16.50) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $45.4 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $15.40.

Final Pot: $107.30

So obviously this worked out very well in the end, that's not why I'm posting this. My main question is whether you think checking behind on the turn is the right move, or should I bet? How much should I bet? Note villian's small stack.

Also, does anyone muck this on the flop? Villian's bet suggests he hit the flop pretty well, and I love doublegutters because they are so hidden. I'd probably muck a flush draw.

[soah]

Folding on the flop would be pretty much horrible.

[JaBlue]

Turn check is good.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
My main question is whether you think checking behind on the turn is the right move, or should I bet? How much should I bet? Note villian's small stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like checking behind here. As you can see by the river play, Villain loved his hand (as you picked up on when the flop came out) -- so if you bet the turn, he probably would have made a huge c/r and blown you off of your draw.

Did he show you ATs? That turn check screams "my hand got better and I want to slowplay it"

-dB

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I like checking behind here. As you can see by the river play, Villain loved his hand (as you picked up on when the flop came out) -- so if you bet the turn, he probably would have made a huge c/r and blown you off of your draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

See, I read the turn check for weakness. I figured he had something like KQ that had just gotten a lot worse. But without a read, I had no idea if I could push him off his hand, and a pot bet would not commit me to calling a raise incase he got desperate and pushed.

[ QUOTE ]

Did he show you ATs? That turn check screams "my hand got better and I want to slowplay it"


[/ QUOTE ]

No he didn't, although I see the logic behind what you're saying.

Villian showed down 10-8. So his turn check was weak, and I have little doubt that I could have pushed him off his hand on the turn. The eight was obviously a gift from the poker gods.

[ThePokerGods]

[ QUOTE ]
The eight was obviously a gift from the poker gods.

[/ QUOTE ]

..and where's my burnt offering? Huh!?!?!

[Los Feliz Slim]

I like the turn check. If he's weak he's not going to call (and he's most likely not on a draw you need to make him pay for), if he's strong you might get pushed off. Even if you don't hit your draw on the river, if he checks again he could be easily moved off his pair.

[gulebjorn]

You're getting 11.5-5 or 2.3-1 pot odds on the flop. Your chances of hitting on the turn are 17% or 4.7-1. You have to be pretty sure of your implied odds to chase this one IMO. I think in this case, you must extract another 11.5$ from him if you hit on the turn, just to break even. You have to be able to do this every time, and you have to be sure about it in order to make the call.

Am i calculating this correct?

By the way, did you consider just calling the river? QJ could have been out there. Not saying you shouldn't raise, just wondering...

[xcrack999]

I'm just curious. Why is folding on the flop bad?

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 11.5-5 or 2.3-1 pot odds on the flop. Your chances of hitting on the turn are 17% or 4.7-1. You have to be pretty sure of your implied odds to chase this one IMO. I think in this case, you must extract another 11.5$ from him if you hit on the turn, just to break even. You have to be able to do this every time, and you have to be sure about it in order to make the call.

Am i calculating this correct?

By the way, did you consider just calling the river? QJ could have been out there. Not saying you shouldn't raise, just wondering...

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to make $11.5 on the turn if you hit to make it break even if you never get to see a river. The thing is about these type of hands is it's one of two things:

(a) A strong hand which will likely bet hard on the turn and blow you off your draw if you miss, but which will for that reason easily pay you off $11.5 if you do hit the turn.
(b) A weaker hand which will probably bet small on the turn or check and let you see a free river, in which case calling the flop is fine just based on pot odds.

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to make $11.5 on the turn if you hit to make it break even if you never get to see a river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, i thought that:
if you hit, you have both the turn and river to make that 11.5$
if you miss and face another bet, you have to calculate your pot and implied odds again, but this time you have to take into account that you only have the river to earn extra bets.

[ QUOTE ]
A weaker hand which will probably bet small on the turn or check and let you see a free river, in which case calling the flop is fine just based on pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

But in this case, you cannot expect to win any more bets, so you're still not getting odds.

Also, don't you have to take into account the possibility that when you face a strong hand, he will pay you off if you hit, but will also draw out on you sometimes? Ex. you make the straight on the turn, so a set will pay you off most of the time, but draw out on you sometimes...

Again, i'm not saying this is a clear fold, i'm just trying to figure out a correct way of analysing these situations in order to be able to make a correct decision. I just think this is a situation that, even if it's +EV, it will only be marginal and that you will need very good turn and river play to exploit that small edge. Am i very wrong?

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious. Why is folding on the flop bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the hand has big implied odds. I mean.... I took his stack.

Double gutters have great implied odds because people never see them coming. I mean, who chases gutshots =)

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious. Why is folding on the flop bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the hand has big implied odds. I mean.... I took his stack.

Double gutters have great implied odds because people never see them coming. I mean, who chases gutshots =)

[/ QUOTE ]

Definetly, I can't see a fold on the flop since double gutters are so tricky to spot. Most will assume that if you are drawing you will already have the 8 or the queen and won't view these as scare cards.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way, did you consider just calling the river? QJ could have been out there. Not saying you shouldn't raise, just wondering...

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely not. The whole reason to play the hand is to take the guy's stack if you hit it. If he has QJ, so be it.

How can you possibly not raise with the second nuts.

[soLit]

I have a question, What if the player makes a small bet on the turn, Would you go for a call, or try to use the turn card as a card to bluff with and reraise.
any ideas?

[PokerFink]

Probably just call. I have found that when a player gives you good odds to chase a draw, you should just take the odds and chase instead of getting fancy.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, i thought that:
if you hit, you have both the turn and river to make that 11.5$
if you miss and face another bet, you have to calculate your pot and implied odds again, but this time you have to take into account that you only have the river to earn extra bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is true. Again though, you get to use the extra information that he has a hand strong enough to bet the flop and turn hard.

[ QUOTE ]
But in this case, you cannot expect to win any more bets, so you're still not getting odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If someone bets slightly under pot on the flop, that means you are getting a bit better than 2:1 on your draw, which is almost 2:1 (~30%) to hit by the river, so it really does justify a call purely based on pot odds. And that's assuming he won't even call $5 on the river (which of course if he won't you can just bluff him out of the pot on the river anyway). All this needs to be taken into consideration, and in general you are almost always correct calling a pot bet on the flop with an 8 out straight draw and position (and deep enough stacks obviously).

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to be pretty sure of your implied odds to chase this one IMO. I think in this case, you must extract another 11.5$ from him if you hit on the turn, just to break even. You have to be able to do this every time, and you have to be sure about it in order to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do not have to extract $11.50 from him every time you hit. You have to extract $11.50 from him on average each time you hit. He has $45 left so you only need to stack him one time out of four to get to the breakeven point. If you think your opponent is weak enough that you can't get his stack more than 25% of the time then you should have an easy time stealing the pot either with a flop raise, or by calling the flop and moving him off his hand later. Depending on the particulars of your opponent's play.

None of your outs are scare cards so it really comes down to whether your opponent flopped a good hand, and how much respect they give you.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I wouldn't sit with $90 at a NL100 table, but I guess you are just one of those lazier guys who likes to wait until 80 or something to top up and doesn't mind giving up $20 occasionally when you double through while you're short stacked. In any case, I don't really love the preflop call, but it is close since you are on the button and your opponents probably don't play that well postflop. I would like it better if you had $10 more, though.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't sit with $90 at a NL100 table, but I guess you are just one of those lazier guys who likes to wait until 80 or something to top up and doesn't mind giving up $20 occasionally when you double through while you're short stacked.

[/ QUOTE ]

*shocked look* AM NOT!

nh