Party 109 AK button/bubble hand

[citanul]

Semi interesting hand:

BB is me: assume that I'm only going to call with AA and KK for the purposes of this hand. SB is a donkey, he's calling WAY too much. He's not interested in silly things like raping the bubble, just in continuing to donk his way through the tournament.

Stacks:

UTG: 200
Button: 1820
SB: 6020
BB: 1960

blinds 200/400

utg folds, button has AKo.

Button?

To take this further, what hands do you think should be pushed from the button against a guy who's calling with a few ranges of hands from tight to loose?

What hands would you call with as the big stack, against various types of opponents, remembering that you're going to possibly have a shot at big stacking at the table even if you do lose this hand?

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not interested in silly things like raping the bubble, just in continuing to donk his way through the tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is one of the funniest statements ive read on this forum in a while.....as for the hand: if the sb is really as much of a donk as you say he is, im going to want to be more than a 2:1 fav if called and i give serious consideration to folding. (that being said, i prolly push at the table considering that i have at least 4 other bubbles going on and pushing ak is like a reaction to me). the hands that should be pushed in this situation imo are aks, jj+. calling as a big stack would have the same range for me as going into the money with 60% of the chips in play is a huge edge. that being said, if im the big stack and button minraises, im pushing a7+, 66+, any two paint.

[citanul]

good reply.

what about if the button pushes instead of minraising.

[Voltron87]

What does way too much mean? Way too much by 4 players left standards?

hmmmm... its close. i typed out a few sentences a couple times but each one wasn't right.

fold.

if sb isn't going to steal often then I might pass this one and take the 3rd place cash.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
What does way too much mean? Way too much by 4 players left standards?

hmmmm... its close. i typed out a few sentences a couple times but each one wasn't right.

fold.

if sb isn't going to steal often then I might pass this one and take the 3rd place cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, way too much actually referred to how much he's been calling (and subsequently luckboxing his way to 6k chips) to this point in the tournament.

i was assuming he'd continue, as that just felt right. as you can tell, i can't tell just yet what i feel is too loose a calling range for him if the button pushes.

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
good reply.

what about if the button pushes instead of minraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

aks jj+....too tight?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
good reply.

what about if the button pushes instead of minraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

aks jj+....too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know.

most of the looking at this hand that i've done to this point is from looking at the EV of pushing AK here with different calling ranges assigned to the big stack and the bb. judging from those ranges, pushing is pretty marginal (making like a 7 buck profit on 150 in equity) if you make the guy call with A2+ and 22+. (i may be misremembering these numbers.) that's a fair amount of variance to be adding to just pick up 7 bucks in equity. but i dunno. so judging by that standard, clearly a different calling standard is one that is +EV for the big stack.

image plays certainly come into effect in situations like this. particularly if you (big stack) and you (button) are playing together lots, a few spite calls in situations like this clearly aren't going to cost the big stack much in the way of ev, but are going to both totally piss off the button player and make him make some, how do you say "interesting" notes on you.

just a few thoughts.

citanul

[45suited]

I hate situations like this. Haven't run any numbers, but I think I'm just pushing here. I mean, it's not out of the question that short stack gets lucky on the next hand, gets up to t600, then who knows? If the donkey big stack then wakes up and starts raping the bubble like he should, it becomes very uncomfortable for you while shorty might just call with any two and get back in it. Clearly, BB needs an absolute monster to call you (at least QQ). Hopefully big stack realizes your position and that you need a huge hand to push here. I don't know, as has been written already, as I'm writing this I don't know if this is correct, but I think I'd push. Then break my monitor when big stack calls and busts me with JTs.

[Newt_Buggs]

alright, I'll risk sounding like an idiot and be the first one to say it-what about limping? The SB obviously isn't going to push you off of your hand pf, and I'm assuming that the BB is going to be afraid to play back at you because he is afraid that the donk SB calls. For less than 1/4 of your stack you can see a flop and have a good shot and flopping a strong hand. Furthermore, if they both miss I wouldn't be surprised if they check to you, allowing you to get a 4th card for free. It seems like this is definitly +EV, making it better than folding.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
good reply.

what about if the button pushes instead of minraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

aks jj+....too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know.

most of the looking at this hand that i've done to this point is from looking at the EV of pushing AK here with different calling ranges assigned to the big stack and the bb. judging from those ranges, pushing is pretty marginal (making like a 7 buck profit on 150 in equity) if you make the guy call with A2+ and 22+. (i may be misremembering these numbers.) that's a fair amount of variance to be adding to just pick up 7 bucks in equity. but i dunno. so judging by that standard, clearly a different calling standard is one that is +EV for the big stack.

image plays certainly come into effect in situations like this. particularly if you (big stack) and you (button) are playing together lots, a few spite calls in situations like this clearly aren't going to cost the big stack much in the way of ev, but are going to both totally piss off the button player and make him make some, how do you say "interesting" notes on you.

just a few thoughts.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is one of those spots where you should prolly forgo your current slight edge in order to be alive for a much bigger one in the future, i like to think of this as an implied edge. there are many posters who play all of their edges to the max regardless of size, and i think that having 60% of the chips in play when 3 handed is much too big of an edge to risk for a few bucks. (think of it like investing in stocks)....

[citanul]

why do you say that the sb obviously isn't going to push you off your hand preflop? if that's you saying that you'd call a push, then i can't agree that you should limp instead of pushing. not saying pushing is necessarilly > limping in this post, but what i'm saying is that if you're going to call if the sb pushes, you shouldn't limp.

citanul

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Stacks:

UTG: 200
Button: 1820
SB: 6020
BB: 1960

blinds 200/400

utg folds, button has AKo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Soo....BB is calling a little less that 0.5% of the time with an Ace and King already accounted for. SB is a donk who calls "way too much."

Even if SB calls with top 1/4 of hands (sounds about right from description, you can adjust up or down), AKo is close to a 64% favorite. So...

74.5% (approx, of times BB has AA/KK SB may call too) of the time you push, SB and BB fold, button now has 2420, BB has 1560, UTG is all-in for 200 next hand. You've opened up a sizable chip-gap on BB for 2nd. Not worth it to push junk to gain that advantage, but it's nothing to be scoffed at.

25% of the time SB calls you, BB folds. Of these times, 64% of the time you win, have 4,040 chips, SB has 4,200, BB has 1,560, and UTG 200. 36% of the time SB calls, you lose, and you're out.

0.5% of the time SB folds, BB calls with AA/KK, and you're like 18% on average to win.

So...you get knocked out about 9.5% of the time. 74.5% of the time you gain a good chip advantage on 2nd place (and a tad closer to first). 16% of the time you become co-chipleader. Sounds like a pretty good deal where you increase your expected equity from the rise in 2nds/1sts to more than compensate for the 2% expected equity loss from the increase in 4th places.

If you fold AKo on the button, a decent % of the time UTG will survive his blinds, pretty much forcing the button to fold his blinds (do you want to push a good-not-great hand from the SB and the BB donk with his calling standards and a shorter stack at the table?). So...there's also some risk in taking the "safe route" where you're going to have to continue playing safe for a couple of orbits, while you continue to get blinded down.

Seems like a pretty easy push, even if BB was calling a wider range.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you say that the sb obviously isn't going to push you off your hand preflop? if that's you saying that you'd call a push, then i can't agree that you should limp instead of pushing. not saying pushing is necessarilly > limping in this post, but what i'm saying is that if you're going to call if the sb pushes, you shouldn't limp.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB is a donkey, he's calling WAY too much. He's not interested in silly things like raping the bubble, just in continuing to donk his way through the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
based on your description it sounds like the SB is loose passive and isn't clever enough to try to push you off of your limp. With this type of player, I think that there are many hands that he would call your all in with but merely complete if you limp, but I guess that this depends on how big of a donkey he really is. Ex: how do you think he will play 44? If you push I'm guessing that hes calling, but I would be surprised to see him push this if you limp in.


well, gramps just made a really good argument for pushing after I wrote this, oh well. Its hard to quanitfy limping in the same way to see if it could be as +EV.

[Nick B.]

Eh, I think I would just push.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
Eh, I think I would just push.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats what I'm starting to lean towards as well. This has been an interesting thread though. It would be great to see more strategy discussions and hand postings from the top players on this forum like this one.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eh, I think I would just push.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats what I'm starting to lean towards as well. This has been an interesting thread though. It would be great to see more strategy discussions and hand postings from the top players on this forum like this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that I lean towards pushing as well, but I think that arguments can be made for waiting for the short guy to fold, and minimizing your variance. It's just not how I would play poker.

I'm glad that at least one person found the hand interesting. I'm sure that the button, who wound up pushing his AK, and getting busted by A5 (which hit the wheel), probably didn't find it as interesting.

I don't konw if I'm counted as any of the top players on this forum, but a big problem for me is finding a hand or thing that *I* think is interesting, and usually I try to shoot for it to be sort of topical to the other threads of the day or week or whatever. Sadly the "I think is interesting" thing means that I can't pick up hands that probably would be interesting/beneficial to a lot of other players because well, I'm too lazy to just run an out and out strategy lecture of some type.

Early next week, look for me to make a post with some good PVSes, as that seems to have become a hot topic. Or hey, if there's some random play that people want to see examples of that I can muster up a bunch of, I'll post some of those too. Or something. Like, if someone wants to see me go for a limp reraise, not get the raise, and then play my AA or KK like a sissy, I've got a bunch of those. I dunno.

Would it make any difference in the original hand if you knew that the button player was playing fairly significantly out of their bankroll what you would suggest their play to be?

citanul

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't konw if I'm counted as any of the top players on this forum, but a big problem for me is finding a hand or thing that *I* think is interesting, and usually I try to shoot for it to be sort of topical to the other threads of the day or week or whatever. Sadly the "I think is interesting" thing means that I can't pick up hands that probably would be interesting/beneficial to a lot of other players because well, I'm too lazy to just run an out and out strategy lecture of some type.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't ever find any interesting hands either, which is why I might just post and entire sng. Something that I find extremely simple, might be trouble for somebody else.

[citanul]

weren't you supposed to be posting like an entire sng a week or a day or something?

citanul

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
weren't you supposed to be posting like an entire sng a week or a day or something?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was going to, but nobody really responded to it and I went on the PPM cruise. I also went back to ring after the cruise. I also posted 1 this week, but nobody responded.

[Voltron87]

so i thought about this a little more, and I chose fold. I didn't do any math, but that's my play. I could be wrong, I"m not sure of this.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate situations like this. Haven't run any numbers, but I think I'm just pushing here. I mean, it's not out of the question that short stack gets lucky on the next hand, gets up to t600, then who knows? If the donkey big stack then wakes up and starts raping the bubble like he should, it becomes very uncomfortable for you while shorty might just call with any two and get back in it. Clearly, BB needs an absolute monster to call you (at least QQ). Hopefully big stack realizes your position and that you need a huge hand to push here. I don't know, as has been written already, as I'm writing this I don't know if this is correct, but I think I'd push. Then break my monitor when big stack calls and busts me with JTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's hard (and I'd be sweating myself) but I still think that I push this. Another reason why is that, say short double or triples up. At the 11's, the guy to his left (who is not the chip leader) is too likely to play like a moron and fold later on when shorty open pushes from SB while getting something like 2.5:1 odds to call. Next thing you know, you're not even guaranteed third anyway. By playing for first here, you're increasing your chances to cash as well.

[citanul]

i didn't see that one. i'll try to look for it later when i get back from the ballgame.

citanul

[freemoney]

i think any player at the 109s has the ability to push as SB with a very marginal hand and would increase the variance hero does not want to deal with, ipen pushing is better- blinds are very significant.

[AbelM]

[ QUOTE ]
I also posted 1 this week, but nobody responded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed it, but will look it up. Even though you got no replys, i'm sure some people are interested in these. It might just be a bit harder to give a reply to a whole SNG than one hand in particular. So feel free to keep posting them /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I don't konw if I'm counted as any of the top players on this forum

[/ QUOTE ]

I only recently started posting hands, but find your replys to be some of the more helpfull. I'm curious why you play 109's.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious why you play 109's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play the 109s for a variety of reasons, but I play the 215s often as well.

1) the 215s are, at various points in the day, not a very good spot to be playing, as the shark/fish ratio stinks.

2) i love busting 2+2ers, and i know more of their screen names at the 109s. (this is mostly a joke.)

3) last (this?) week i was seeing how doable continuous 8 tabling on one monitor was, so i played the 50s for a day and then the 109s for the rest of the week. i don't know if i'll start 8 tabling the 215s on one screen.

but yeah, *normally* i play a mix of the 109s and the 215s, depending on the people i see sitting there/the mood i'm in.

citanul

[Newt_Buggs]

Why would you 8 table the 109s/215s with only one monitor? I mean, its not like you couldn't afford a 2nd one....

Oh yeah, and I'de be very interested in seeing/discussing a good example of a PVS

[citanul]

there's a variety of reasons for not buying a 2nd monitor that i discussed in a pm with another poster, a few:

- i suffer instant buyers remorse for like anything semi frivolous over about 100 bucks

- i haven't seen a good sale on the 2001 fp lately

- my gf doesn't want the bedroom (where the computer is) to look like a spaceship (her words)

i'll try to get around to some pvs posting next week. particularly, i use the pvs in 50/100 and 100/200. (though apparently i'm going to have to stop doing it on my publicly known account.)

citanul

[boedeker]

[ QUOTE ]

Would it make any difference in the original hand if you knew that the button player was playing fairly significantly out of their bankroll what you would suggest their play to be?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in peoples opinions on this added element.

[curtains]

8 tabling on one monitor instead of 2 is completely insane to me. Like ridiculously -EV when compared to just buying a second monitor for $150, at least for me.

[citanul]

yeah, but my sense of aesthetic does not allow to have a 2001fp and some random crt. i don't doubt that i'm losing some money per table doing 8 on one monitor, but i do doubt that it's a ton. particularly at the 100s, instead of the 200s. in time, a 2nd monitor will come into existence. thank you all for the concern though, it was mostly just a week long experiment.

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, but my sense of aesthetic does not allow to have a 2001fp and some random crt. i don't doubt that i'm losing some money per table doing 8 on one monitor, but i do doubt that it's a ton. particularly at the 100s, instead of the 200s. in time, a 2nd monitor will come into existence. thank you all for the concern though, it was mostly just a week long experiment.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

ebay (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=86706&item=5201924 149&rd=1) often has them for under 500 with shipping....i got one of mine for 480 and the other for 520 (but obviously i wasnt patient enough)

[citanul]

has neteller become a common enough thing that i can use it for ebay payments?

thanks for the heads up. i don't know how much i trust ebay vendors to sell me a lcd monitor, but i might as well look around.

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
has neteller become a common enough thing that i can use it for ebay payments?

thanks for the heads up. i don't know how much i trust ebay vendors to sell me a lcd monitor, but i might as well look around.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

im not sure...i use paypal, which is essentially the same thing except it is ebay specific. i was also a little bit nervous about paying someone that hefty of a sum and being vulnerable to getting ripped off. But, I hae made 4 major purchases through the sight (a new computer, 2 new monitors and a new golf club) and all came through very smoothly. Furthermore, paypal has a program that investigates claims and gets you your money back if the seller doesnt follow through. But, that is so rare as so many peoples business reputations are on the line which is something that is very sacred to almost anyone who sells a decent amount of items through the sight.