bottom set

[soah]

Party 2/4 6-max

I've been playing fairly tight, usually raising if I'm first in preflop. Limping behind others sometimes with weak hands. Playing aggressively but picking my spots carefully. I've built my stack to a bit over $500 when this hand comes up. (My opponent has me covered.)

Guy in front of me has been doing a lot of minraising and minbetting in the hands he plays. But he is playing sorta tight, and I haven't seen him showdown enough of those hands to get much of a read on him yet. So he's tight and plays weird.

A couple hands ago he busted a guy with AA vs KK. No minraising/minbetting crap in that hand.

The dude that busted just left, and someone else just left, so we're suddenly four-handed.

I have 22 UTG and raise to $12. BB is the only caller.

Flop is A23 rainbow. He checks, I bet $16, he raises to $40, I call.

Turn 9, he bets $55, I raise to $155, he pushes.

[Macquarie]

Wow, tough hand. Could he do this with AK/AQ? Seems possible on the flop, but unlikely on the turn unless he picked up the backdoor flush draw. A2s or A3s seem possible too.

I think it's a call... you're getting more than 2:1 on the final call.

Very interested to hear what others think...

[dmoney777]

<font color="red"> </font>
I would assume that he was on the A...figuring you for either an A with a smaller kicker.....or a smaller pocket pair...I would call in this situation, especially considering you were only four-handed. Also, it is very very unlikely that he had AA again since you said he had it recently already. I think a call here is the right move.

[DoubleDown]

I call and expect to see A3 or AK (less likely)

I don't think he has 33 or 45. I think with the flopped set/str8 he would not have check-raised you on the flop, nor led out on the turn ... I think those hands would play softer and not allow you to get away so easy (if you dont have an ace, you fold).

interested to hear other responses

[Sephus]

i think you're up against 54, 33, A3, A2, AA, in that order. just reading your post i think calling the push on the turn was -EV but that said i think in the heat of the moment i probably would have called.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it is very very unlikely that he had AA again since you said he had it recently already.

[/ QUOTE ]

so if i get AA what are my odds for getting it next hand?

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, it is very very unlikely that he had AA again since you said he had it recently already.

[/ QUOTE ]

so if i get AA what are my odds for getting it next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

this made me laugh.

cheers!

[soah]

I would roll over and die if anyone in this game ever showed me AK after playing the hand like that.

[theredpill5]

I would certainly call this 4 handed. You say he's tight so that is really the only reason I'd call. I expect to see A2, A3, A9, even A4 (straight draw).

So what happened ?

I think you might have to call this. He's putting you on AK , AQ, A J , etc . He believes he has you beat so I think you have to call. I'm saying that he isn't expecting to see 45 from you so he may be overplaying his hand a little.

[soah]

Why would a tight player be LESS likely to have a strong hand?

[theredpill5]

I'm saying that I don't think folding a set in a 4 handed game is +EV in the long run. It isn't a 4 card straight board. It's close but not. I think he has A 9 .

Only hands that I see, that are likely, that have you beat are 33 and 99.

[Sephus]

people call small raises shorthanded with 54.

[Verdi]

[ QUOTE ]
people call small raises shorthanded with 54.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it better to call such hands in full rings where you can get more money if you do hit? In short ring big cards should go up in value and drawing hands should go down in value.

[theredpill5]

$12 is a small raise on a $3/6 NL but not on a 2/4 NL game in my opinion. I'm guessing you folded but you put him on 2 /4 .

I made a similar fold tonight on a very similar board but I didn't have a set. I had JJ on a 3 4 5 board and someone pushed all-in for $27 on the flop. I folded and he showed TT.

[TheWorstPlayer]

The problem is that he can obviously beat an ace. And there aren't very many hands that can beat an ace but lose to bottom set. The only two I can think of are aces up and 23. Neither of those hands seem especially likely for a tightish player to call a raise with OOP. FWIW, 45 doesn't seem very likely either for the same reason (although of course it's possible). Most likely hand is 33, right?

However, it wasn't a very big raise and people will often defend their blinds loosely against a small preflop raise. So I think 23 and 45 are both within his playing range. Also aces up with a suited ace is certainly possible.

Anyways, all told I think it's close, but I think this one is closer to a call than the straight hand. He could have A9 and just made aces up on the turn. He could have 23 (just as likely as 45, right?). Even though you would roll over and die, he could have AK, IMO. I probably grit my teeth and call. If he has 45 you have outs. If he has 33, you have an out.

[jhall23]

Tough spot. I think 33 seems like the most likely hand to me as well.

How did that AA vs KK hand play out? Did it get all in pre-flop? Can we severly discount or eliminate AA here. Does 'sorta tight' eliminate Axs? If there his range includes 2 pair/straight/set I probably call this but I haven't done any math to see if that is close or not.

I probably would have called in the heat of it all but getting away from a set in a spot like this could be a leak I have.

[soah]

In the AA vs KK hand there had been a raise and a reraise preflop, and the rest went in on the flop. The guy with KK had only started the hand with about $250 or $300 and rags flopped.

[jhall23]

I think we could discount AA at least some then. I would expect him to re-raise a lone UTG raise. Have you run anything through poker stove yet?

Here's a few I did. When we start given more credit to just a straight/overset then two pair it looks like a fold. Add in more two pair hands and it looks like a call.

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396 games 0.010 secs 39,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.0606 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 68.9394 % [ 00.69 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, 54s }



[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528 games 0.005 secs 105,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.4015 % [ 00.46 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 53.5985 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, A3s-A2s, 54s }



[/ QUOTE ]

This last one is the same as the prior one with 2 of the 6 combo's of AA added (not sure why they didn't show up in the results) to account for him have AA some percentage of the time.

[ QUOTE ]


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616 games 0.005 secs 123,200 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.0974 % [ 00.40 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 59.9026 % [ 00.60 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, A3s-A2s, 54s }

[ QUOTE ]

[amoeba]

How was your image ? have you been raising UTG with crap and representing the ace when an ace flops?

how often have you raised in the last 20 hands or so?

If you've been playing fairly tight, I think he feels he has the ace beat and if he is tight himself, he won't call preflop with A2 or A3. There is no draw so he won't be semibluffing on the flop.

I think you are beat 80% of the time.

[soah]

My image should be pretty solid... but as I said, we had been playing six-handed leading up to this, and now it's four-handed so that may change some things.

This guy wasn't a nutjob and he wasn't going to be building a pot out of position with a marginal hand... maybe AK is enough for him to checkraise in a four-handed game on this flop, but I don't expect to see him with A9 or 99 or some of the other hands that people have mentioned...

I called his flop raise thinking "holy hell, I flopped a set four-handed and I'm getting action!" His turn bet still didn't worry me obviously, and I tried to build the pot.

When he came back over the top of that, I thought "damn, there's nothing I can beat that he would play this aggressively," which was followed quickly by "omg, I have a set in a four-handed game on a ragged board, let's double up!"

So I went ahead and called him, and I doubled up too, because his 54o was no goot against my rivered boat.

[amoeba]

well he played it pretty well.

[soah]

One of the best things I've ever heard at the table: "It's easy to look like a genius when you flop the nuts"

His play looks good since I also flopped a huge hand, but if I had flopped something weaker his flop checkraise would have let me get away from the hand very easily... if I have a pair of aces without a very strong kicker, I know I'm in bad shape there.

[amoeba]

Well I think because his hand is vulnerable to getting outdrawn. But yeah, I might have just checked called the flop then check raise the turn.

[jhall23]

As I said I think I would have called too without the time to go through everything like we have. So ultimately what do you think? Does he have enough two-pair hands here to make the call good? It seems like after going through it it looks like it might be a fold.

O yeah, A9 does probably seem odd since the 9 came on turn. What about A2, A3 maybe 23.

Well, anyway good thing he had the nuts on the turn and not one of the other sets /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Garland]

*yawn* standard?

The only thing is, I would have reraised his check-raise as not to potentially lose my action if a 4 or 5 comes on the turn.

Garland

[PITTM]

[ QUOTE ]
My image should be pretty solid... but as I said, we had been playing six-handed leading up to this, and now it's four-handed so that may change some things.

This guy wasn't a nutjob and he wasn't going to be building a pot out of position with a marginal hand... maybe AK is enough for him to checkraise in a four-handed game on this flop, but I don't expect to see him with A9 or 99 or some of the other hands that people have mentioned...

I called his flop raise thinking "holy hell, I flopped a set four-handed and I'm getting action!" His turn bet still didn't worry me obviously, and I tried to build the pot.

When he came back over the top of that, I thought "damn, there's nothing I can beat that he would play this aggressively," which was followed quickly by "omg, I have a set in a four-handed game on a ragged board, let's double up!"

So I went ahead and called him, and I doubled up too, because his 54o was no goot against my rivered boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats hot...

rj