how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?

[Newt_Buggs]

I just don't know what to say
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t795)
UTG (t6095)
Button (t870)
SB (t2240)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t160</font>, SB calls t135, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t795 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, SB calls t635.

Flop: (t1750) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1750) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1750) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1750

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 9s Jh (one pair, aces).
SB has 3d 3c (two pair, aces and threes).
Outcome: SB wins t1750. </font>

two questions:
1. is this usually a push with any two? It looks like the button is on a steal and the SB is trying to sneak in with a hand that he shouldn't be playing. The small blind in there will make it even harder for the button to call a push and the small blind most likely does not have a hand that he wants to risk his entire stack with.

2. How do I interpret these results? Just shrug and move on or does this show that pushing here was wrong?

[Freudian]

I don't like pushing marginal hands on the bubble when someone raised, especially when blinds are this small. That he isn't pushing for 16xBB shouldn't be interpreted as him not liking his hand.

[DasLeben]

I'm not sure I can accurately answer all your questions, but I can certainly answer this one:

[ QUOTE ]
how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really evaluate. I just think that everyone at my table other than me is an idiot. No really, it works. Try it! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[curtains]

I would not push, people are crazy. I know the reward is greater but I always prefer to push against zero action (assuming a weak hand like yours) than two people who have shown that they at least like their hand a little bit. For these guys, liking their hand a "little bit" can mean they simply aren't going to fold for another 600 chips especially when the SB can come up with excuses about how he has a big stack, and theres 160 dead money from the button and so on.

Also there is the reasonable chance that button busts or becomes crippled this hand if you fold.

[Nick B.]

Who is being stupid here besides yourself? The pot is 370 before you pushed. You can push 635 more, giving 1.6-1 odds on your all in. You are the shortstack, you have a target on your head from the big stacks which means you probably need a better hand to make this play.

[Atropos]

With 25/50 blinds I do not like this play at all, because pushes are rare and you cannot say that buttons hand is weak because he raised 3BB. How it would be with 50/100 blinds I dont know.
It seems the forum's wisdom ends at the point when limpers/raisers/coldcallers are involved and not just simple pushes/calls. I can only say I dont like your play, but I dont know how to prove this mathematically.

[treeofwisdom7]

i think everyone on this thread is right..
maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal your blind with J9 oh wait he would have you beat
maybe... you were thinking he was trying to steal with AJ -- oh wait he still has you beat. ok ok maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with K9 such a bad hand right . ehhhh he still has you beat.

maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with 33 hey! correct.. just let him steal here and if you gotta just call.

[applejuicekid]

I really liked your play here. I don't think pushing is wrong, but apparently everyone else disagrees. Curtains does make a good point about players falling in love with their terrible hands, but you are shortstacked and this looks like a great stealing opportunity.

[shejk]

I'm positive this is a +chip ev move. That said, I don't think I would have done it on the bubble with the other shortstack in a hand where he may go out, and you having 15+ bb.

Edit: For the reason that people fall in love with their hands way too easily.

[NYCNative]

This might have been a good opportunity for a "Stop &amp; Go" kind of move. Would it have helped you win the pot by getting people to fold if you called and went All-Inafter the flop no matter what the flop was? Would it in the long run in such a case?

[Atropos]

"I'm positive this is a +chip ev move. "

How could you know that? If you knew the +chip EV why not make the ICM analysis and tell us if the play was right or wrong?

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm positive this is a +chip ev move. "

How could you know that? If you knew the +chip EV why not make the ICM analysis and tell us if the play was right or wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

You rely way too much on numbers. Let it go.

[Atropos]

"You rely way too much on numbers. Let it go."

I dont understand how you could rely too much on numbers in a situation like this. You are all-in preflop, there are no decisions to be made, you dont have a specific read other than hand ranges etc... I dont see how this is different than calling a flush-draw. At the tables the intuitive solution is better, because you cant calculate it.

Doing analysis this way seems worthless to me, however I (yet) do not know how to do the math for these problems, otherwise I would do it.

[45suited]

Personally, I think that this move is premature. You've got plenty of chips, just relax and play poker for a while. I really don't see how a 3BB raise from the button is necessarily a steal. You will get called here too often for this to be +EV IMO. More to the point though, is I would rather be the first one in raising than trying this after a raise and a call. Sometimes, you have to account for the "stupidity" of our opponents (which is usually great) and realize that they will call way more often than you think. I don't mean this as an insult, but sometimes I think that some people are too reluctant to just be patient and actually play poker. There is no need for this move with your chipstack and these blinds.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
i think everyone on this thread is right..
maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal your blind with J9 oh wait he would have you beat
maybe... you were thinking he was trying to steal with AJ -- oh wait he still has you beat. ok ok maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with K9 such a bad hand right . ehhhh he still has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously I don't think that J8 is the best hand, I just read both players (see first post) as weak, especially since I would have expected this player to raise smaller if he wanted a call.


[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand how you could rely too much on numbers in a situation like this. You are all-in preflop, there are no decisions to be made, you dont have a specific read other than hand ranges etc... I dont see how this is different than calling a flush-draw. At the tables the intuitive solution is better, because you cant calculate it.

[/ QUOTE ]
you can't rely on numbers here because there are too many variables. You can't assign exact numbers to the % of the time that they will call and what hands they will call with.

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think that this move is premature. You've got plenty of chips, just relax and play poker for a while

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this applys, If there are dead chips in the middle I am taking them regardless. The fact that this is the bubble and that I have time only means that I have to be more sure of my decision to make it.

However, after reading everyones responses and looking back over the hand, I don't think that I was confident enough in this situation to make this play. 30 minutes at a table while multitabeling is not enough time to get a strong enough read on both players to make this move. In the future I believe that I would have to be almost positive that the button is weak and that the SB is loose enough to call here with a weak hand, tight enough to fold this hand to a push, and aggressive enough to raise a hand that he would want to be all in with. I obviously misevaluated the SB and paid for it.

btw, how would you guys have played the SBs hand? Push because the button is afraid of getting busted on the bubble?

[Blarg]

I think the chance you'll have to show down this hand isn't all that bad.

Button's 3x BB raise isn't quite a min-raise, and the for the level of the blinds, I don't think it shows the weakness you think it does. We're on the bubble, but that doesn't mean he is only going to be pushing unless he's weak to try to risk the whole tourney every other hand. There's still plenty of time in the tourney to extract a lot of value by getting people to call, not to fold. Playing QQ or AK or something super-hard just to steal the antes wouldn't be his best move here; enticing people in would be, so he could make more money. If you're up against a guy who is trying to get people to call, with a hand like J9o, you're in trouble.

As to SB, he will have to call only 635 to get 1590 if button calls, and to get 1090 if not. He's a big stack, and might call with almost anything for those odds, and for the added bonus of knocking out a player and getting a nice stack boost if his hand wins.

I think you're making reads and on that basis applying bubble play concepts here that are more in sync with play you see when the blinds are higher.

That's probably because it's so unusual to be down to four people when the blinds are still this low, that you're just automatically applying your old game without adapting it.

[Rduke55]

he's getting the right odds ifhe puts you on 2 overs. If he wins then he's in the money and one person is short stacked. If he loses there's still a short stack there and he still has 27BB.

[runner4life7]

I am relatively new to posting on 2+2, but its moves like yours that I think help make SNGs profitable. Most people arent going to risk that many chips just to "steal" 75. Look at the blinds, this is a terrible move, you might be low stacked but not relative to the BB. You have so many hands you can wait for, I think there is only one persons stupidity here that needs evaluating.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
I am relatively new to posting on 2+2, but its moves like yours that I think help make SNGs profitable. Most people arent going to risk that many chips just to "steal" 75. Look at the blinds, this is a terrible move, you might be low stacked but not relative to the BB. You have so many hands you can wait for, I think there is only one persons stupidity here that needs evaluating.

[/ QUOTE ]
please keep in mind that this is a $50 and the button is a solid player

I think that part of this play was a little tilt inspired . I had just gotten back from a B&amp;M casino and ended up down $500 at 5-10 NL after getting cold carded then misplaying a hand. lol, so I left because I was on tilt and played SnGs instead /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[runner4life7]

Sorry for coming off harsh, I think you did sometime im guilty of far too often, and thats a) giving opponents too much credit and b) overthinking the situation. While your ideas on this hand are good and appear that you may have been right, I just prefer to wait till better hands when blinds are this low.

[zambonidrivr]

you pushed j9o to a raise? be the initiator, not the caller unless you have a real hand. i would rather push any 2 with no prior action, that push absolute crap like you did here to a raise. hoh is a really good book.

[Bco1/75]

I would ask what about your own stupidity, but I would need to know what buy-in level this sit-go. Typically it dosen't take all of your stack to find out if sonmeone is trying to make a steal. The small blind has you out chipped 3x and is getting 3:1 with an under pair to what probally ammounts to two over cards.....I don't think I need to give any more numbers. It looks like your intellegence is at question... /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[pooh74]

Your play here is based almost entirely on fold equity with a hand like this. The problem is that you have too little.

SB made an ok call IMO. his call of button's raise is horrendous, but after YOU push and button folds, he's getting sweet odds and probably shouldnt lay this down (although he IS stupid for being in this situation in the first place).

IOW, he somehow calls button's raise hoping to see a set (who knows what he's thinking) and would most likely fold if button called your push...but given button folds, he has less respect for your push and given the odds is coming along.

with your stack size, you have to choose a better spot here...you chose a bad spot for this steal and there are much better situations to get your $ in. (i.e. folded to you or w/ a better hand).

I always want to assume I have good chunck of FE and here I would assume I have VERY little and looking at my cards this play just wont make sense to me.

[kyro]

The magnitude of SB's poor play doesn't decrease the magnitude of yours. You're trying to justify your play by saying SB's was worse. While I'll agree SB made a bad play, yours wasn't much better, for the same reasons already presented.