Prob of A on Flop when holding KK

[USGrant]

what is it, 8%? Probably less when considering there is at least one loose donk out there with A rag calling my PF raise. Well, I say that 50% of the time that I have KK in the hole an A hits the board. My sample size could be two hands, or 2,000,000 hands, I don't care, it will always be at least 50% I have a bad, cosmic-level probability streak with KK, and yeah, I'm getting a little sick of it.

[closer2313]

(1 - (46 choose 3 / 50 choose 3) ) * 100 ~ 22.55%

Thats the probability of an ace flopping, but thats with 4 aces left in the deck.

[olavfo]

Assuming 4 aces in the deck, there's a 22.6% chance of flopping an ace and 35% chance of an ace showing up on either flop, turn or river.

olavfo

[MickeyHoldem]

Here's a post about a very similar situation which your probably interested in.


[ QUOTE ]
Given you have KK, what are the odds an ace will flop (or atleast one ace will flop), when atleast one opponent holds an ace?*

There are (50c18) ways to choose cards for nine opponents = 18053528883775 (1)
There are (46c14) ways to choose cards for 9 opponents that contain all 4 aces = 239877544005 (2)
There are 4*(46c15) ways to choose cards for 9 opponents that contain 3 aces = 2046955042176 (3)
There are 6*(46c16) ways to choose cards for 9 opponents that contain 2 aces = 5948963091324 (4)
There are 4*(46c17) ways to choose cards for 9 opponents that contain 1 ace = 6998780107440 (5)
Finally there are (46c18) ways to choose cards that contain no aces = 2818953098830 (6)

as a check we can see that (2) + (3) + (4) + (5) + (6) = (1)


Now in all situations there are (32c3) possible flops = 4960
We can ignore (2) & (6) since the opponents hold all the aces or none

In (3)... (31c3) flops will contain no ace = 4495
In (4)... (30c3) flops will contain no ace = 4060
In (5)... (29c3) flops will contain no ace = 3654

Now we can compute an answer...

= (3)/(1) * (1 - 4495/4960) + (4)/(1) * (1 - 4060/4960) + (5)/(1) * (1 - 3654/4960)

= 0.172496743 or 17.25%


* assuming of course that an opponent will play any ace they are dealt... to simplify the question!

[/ QUOTE ]

[PygmyHero]

If you want a figure for strategic purposes you should find the probability that an ace flops AND a king does not flop. Because if they both hit then you are going to destroy the wank who calls with Ax. I'm ecstatic if I have KK and another one hits - if an ace comes at the same time, all the better. Hitting trips against top pair is always a huge money maker. Note how thin they're drawing - if they improve to trips I have a full house.