Karak owns me...moronic call on my part, right?

[pergesu]

Aight I knew he'd be pushing with crap. He'd be retarded not to. But look at those stacks! I was the retard for making the call, right? I'm not playing for first anymore, so might as well let one of those other guys run out.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t6451)
SB (t545)
Hero (t900)
UTG (t104)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Button pushes, hero calls

Flop: (t600) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Turn: (t600) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t600) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t600

[Karak567]

At least you didn't call me the villain!

I don't think it was a bad call. You KNEW I was pushing any two there and I knew you knew too, I was just hoping you wouldn't have a hand to call me with.

If you did win, you doubled up and had a good stack and a good shot at 2nd and with another double up could play for first.

I don't blame you for the call. Not sure I would have the balls to make it myself, though.

[adanthar]

Nah, it was a bad call. Look up the ICM; AK would be close here.

[microbet]

Perg, you are right. It was a bad call.

If either of you, or anyone else, thinks A6 was even close to a call, please do the ICM calcs putting Karak on any two and find the range of hands for which it is a +$EV call.

I already did it, it is very easy, but you should do it yourself. First one to post it gets a gold star.

[pergesu]

I just ran it through SNGPT, and because of the 1 BB limitation, I set the other two stacks to 400. Said I'd need 99+ to call...so since one was substantially smaller than 400, and the other just a tad higher, I probably need better than that.

Still learning.

[microbet]

No gold star yet. I ran it through Eastbay's program, got that message, changed it to 400 to see what would happen, thought it would be too much different, then used dethgrind's website and pokerstove.

[KingDan]

Theres a post somewhere about how to use ICM but I can't find it.

Anyone have it in their favorites/bookmarks?

[pergesu]

Alright, I got the first part. Calling is worth 19% of the prize pool, compared to 24.4% for folding.

Want to give me some insight into an easy way to figure out the min hand I need, rather than just plugging random hands in and doing the calcs over?

[microbet]

Dethgrind's web site (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

It has some info on how to use it.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Theres a post somewhere about how to use ICM but I can't find it.

Anyone have it in their favorites/bookmarks?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=&amp;Number=%201122239&amp;pag e=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o=&amp;fpart=

[microbet]

Folding is worth 24.4%. That part is right.

When you say calling is worth 19% you mean for A7 (or whatever)?

Figure out what winning is worth. Then figure out how often you need to win. Then you just have to try a few hands in pokerstove or another hand calculator.

[pergesu]

I did the calcs for A6 vs *, since I was pretty sure he'd be pushing with any two cards there. According to that post, calling is worth .56*.3305 + 0.2*.2866 = 19%.

I need to win this 72% of the time for it to even match folding, and pokerstove says 99 vs * is 72-28. So 99 would be break even, I need better than that for it to be a good decision. Probably considerably better than that, just because at this point the small stack only has 6% equity in the tourney.

Can I have a gold star now?

[microbet]

Hard to say. One of us is a little off. I get that you need to win 73.7% of the time, which makes 99 -$EV and TT +$EV (AKs is -$EV)

This is if you really put him on ANY two. If you just take out the very worst hands, you need JJ or QQ.

Ok, here's your gold star

http://www.winona.edu/educationalleadership/GoldStar.jpg

[pergesu]

I got 73%... .33x = .24 x = .73

But I guess I was just lazy when I did it, saw the .727 and just did .72. Close enough for our purposes.

So what I'm really looking for here is the lesson to be learned. In this case, it's clear I need a very strong holding to make the call - much, much stronger than I thought. And I suppose the general idea then is don't put your tourney on the line with a marginal holding when there are two tiny stacks?

[microbet]

Axiom: Don't call on the bubble without a very strong hand when there is a tiny stack.

You can loosen up if the tiny stack is all-in on the hand too.

Corollary: Push with weak hands on the bubble when there is a small stack (unless they are in the hand), especially if you have the villian covered and you think he might know about the axiom above.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
So what I'm really looking for here is the lesson to be learned. In this case, it's clear I need a very strong holding to make the call - much, much stronger than I thought. And I suppose the general idea then is don't put your tourney on the line with a marginal holding when there are two tiny stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should not need ICM to see that you need a monster to make this call. You have two players who will be all-in on their next BB. On top of that, even if you double up you aren't in good shape to get first.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So what I'm really looking for here is the lesson to be learned. In this case, it's clear I need a very strong holding to make the call - much, much stronger than I thought. And I suppose the general idea then is don't put your tourney on the line with a marginal holding when there are two tiny stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should not need ICM to see that you need a monster to make this call. You have two players who will be all-in on their next BB. On top of that, even if you double up you aren't in good shape to get first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't intuitively know that I would need a monster to call. I just topped 400 tournies last night...which I would say means I still don't have a lot of experience, and do have a ton to learn.

This thread has been particularly interesting for me simply because I didn't realize just how strong my hand would need to be.

[durron597]

Dethgrind's calc + GoCee + ICM tells me (unless I screwed up) that you need JJ+ to call vs. a random hand. Though my numbers say you need 75.5% which makes TT borderline, whereas your numbers seem to be a few percentage points lower than that.

[pergesu]

Can I see how you guys are getting your numbers? I just followed the steps in the post I linked to above...and I'm sure that among us, I'm the one that screwed up here. I'd just like to know why we're all coming up with different values, and how I can be more accurate.

[microbet]

I think JJ+ is the right call here if you think your opponant might go with any two. You can never be certain about that and a lot of people (myself included) sometimes pass up any two situations when they accidentally look at their cards and see 52o.

Most players, certainly at the lower levels, will fold a lot of 'bad' hands here, so QQ+ is probably better in general.

I think the small differences were probably based on how many decimal places we all used.

[microbet]

Ok, I'll show my work:

Stacks if you fold:
7051 - 345 - 500 (hero) - 104
$EV = .244

Stacks if you win:
5551 - 345 - 2000 (hero) - 104
$EV = .331 (probably source of rounding differences it is .3305)

.331 * X = .244
X = .737 or you need to win 73.7% of the time

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I see how you guys are getting your numbers? I just followed the steps in the post I linked to above...and I'm sure that among us, I'm the one that screwed up here. I'd just like to know why we're all coming up with different values, and how I can be more accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chips before hand (this doesn't technically matter for the numbers I'm just putting for reference)

Button (t6451)
SB (t545)
Hero (t900)
UTG (t104)

Chips Fold:
Button (t7051)
SB (t345)
Hero (t500)
UTG (t104)

Hero's prize pool%: 24.41

Chips call&amp;lose:
Button (t7551)
SB (t545)
Hero (t0)
UTG (t104)

Hero's prize pool%: 0

Chips call&amp;split: Ignoring cuz it happens like 00.02% of the time and I'm lazy.

Chips call&amp;win:
Button (t5551)
SB (t345)
Hero (t2000)
UTG (t104)

Hero's prize pool%: 33.05% (I screwed this up before because I gave the SB to the button)

33.05% * x + 0 (1 - x) &gt; 24.41%

x = 73.86% favorite to call.

GoCee (http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm) says:
AA - 85.3
KK - 82.5
QQ - 79.9
JJ - 77.5
TT - 75.1
99 - 72.1
88 - 69.1
77 - 66.2
AKs - 67.0
AQs - 66.1
AKo - 65.4

I use GoCee because it's faster than PokerStove for random hands and I don't own eastbay's tool yet.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Aight I knew he'd be pushing with crap. He'd be retarded not to. But look at those stacks! I was the retard for making the call, right? I'm not playing for first anymore, so might as well let one of those other guys run out.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t6451)
SB (t545)
Hero (t900)
UTG (t104)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Button pushes, hero calls

Flop: (t600) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Turn: (t600) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t600) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t600

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that it's a terrible call, but at least you know that. I would fold AK here too and some other strong hands.