T9s turn

[Nate tha' Great]

This hand came up last night in the 15/30.

I have T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the CO and raise two limpers. The BB calls the raise, as do the limpers. Unfortauntely I have not upgraded my Playerview version yet and had not been at the table long, so I'm going pretty much without player reads.

The flop is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. The BB bets out, the first limper calls, the next limper folds and I raise. The BB just calls and now the limper folds, so it's heads up.

The turn is the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif and it's checked to me. Bet or check?

[TheHip41]

I'd check. On of the two has a Q or J most likely. You bought a free card, use it.

[brazilio]

I'm betting.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check. On of the two has a Q or J most likely. You bought a free card, use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

-d

[Aces McGee]

It's heads up, dudes.

-McGee

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check. On of the two has a Q or J most likely. You bought a free card, use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's HU

[Redeye]

I'll take a shot. I think I would check behind. Normally, HU, if I'm betting I like to keep up the pressure even if I'm on a draw because a bet often gets a fold on the turn and you can win a lot of pots UI.

The problem here is that BB is probably betting a Q or a J. If he's betting a Q, you're getting c/red which sucks when drawing live. If he has a jack, you're losing money betting the turn because he won't fold. Unless you think this guy would take a shot at that flop with a smaller pair and can fold the turn, I don't see a bet doing any good.

Also, he could be betting another straight draw like KT. If thats the case, you might be able to get a fold on the river by betting the turn and then the river if a blank hits, but this is too unlikely to really be a factor here.

[chesspain]

Since the BB is folding the turn, like never, and you don't care about a free showdown...oh, you know where I'm going with this.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
It's HU

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that if we raised a hand like this, flopped a draw and got it HU on the turn, betting is better because you can win w/o improving. However, to me this is only good when you raise preflop and no one shows aggression on the flop letting you bet first (also not getting c/red). In this case, when HU on the turn you should continue firing. Here you have a guy betting and calling a raise. There isn't anything that he could have that would justify betting the turn. Even if he has a J or small pp, he's probably not folding, at least not enough for the turn bet to become more profitable than a check I think.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
It's heads up, dudes.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Does he have (and bet - and lay down on the turn or river) KT,T9,TT-44,22,2/images/graemlins/heart.gifs often enough to justify a bet here? I think there's 3% chance we have the best hand, and only a small chance of getting BB to lay down here or on the river.

The only value I can see in a bet would be to fold a med/small PP (with which BB may not bet out on a 2-broadway coordinated board) or by continuing a bluff on the river to fold out a flush/straight draw.

I suck at HU, though.

I would think about a semi-bluff here, but it really sucks to get raised, and i'd probably puss out and check through a blank river. (Sometimes, i'd actually make it, but readless, it's difficult.)

-d

[GetThere1Time]

[ QUOTE ]
It's heads up, dudes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, you are heads up. Heads up with the pair that won't fold anything now that the board has paired. I'd check the turn.

[wildwood]

Nate has position, and BB checked the turn indicating weakness. I think a semi-bluff is correct here if there is even a small chance the BB will fold. The second queen is a scare card for the bb if he doesn't have one in the pocket. If the bb check-raises, then you have step back and reevalute the hand. If you think there is no chance of the bb folding then checking behind may be the better play. imho

[GetThere1Time]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a semi-bluff is correct here if there is even a small chance the BB will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he was betting any pair, he's now calling down. If he has a queen, he's c/ring and if he has a draw, he's calling leaving you in a bad spot at the river if you bet the turn. I dont think the chance he'll fold is small enough.

[ QUOTE ]
The second queen is a scare card for the bb if he doesn't have one in the pocket

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its the complete opposite. Another queen on the board makes him feel that much safer with any pair.

[MaxPower]

The question here is how often a semi-bluff will make him fold the turn. I would guess almost never.

The problem with not betting the turn though is that you may not be able to bluff the river.

I think the semi-bluff would need to work 10% of the time or more to be more profitable than checking and hoping to catch.

[Shillx]

If I had to guess, I would say that the BB has some kind of a draw. If he had a queen, he probably would have gone for a check/raise in this spot. If he does have a draw, there is not point in betting here since he won't fold (unless of course it sets you up to win the pot on the river with a bet). The best reason to bet here would be if you think he might have Jx or a small pair and would throw it away to a bet. This doesn't seem very plausable to me, but the bet only has to work about one time in seven to show a profit. I kinda like checking here, with the intention of sometimes bluff raising the river if I miss. Obviously I won't always do it, but I think like he will take a stab at it with T9 or KT or whatever often enough to make it a viable play.

Brad

[GetThere1Time]

[ QUOTE ]
The question here is how often a semi-bluff will make him fold the turn. I would guess almost never.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[meep_42]

I was liking a bluff-raise on a non-AKT9 river, actually.

-d

[Victor]

theres 6.5bb in there so if he folds more than once every 6 times you are making money. of course, him leading the flop marks him with a pair. but who knows, ppl play crazy.

also, from metagame perspective, its good to show that you will follow thru with aggression and players are gonna pay to peel.

[brazilio]

If he's on some kind of draw, then isn't following through on a blank river more effective than bluff raising his bet? I'm presuming we have zero showdown value.

[GetThere1Time]

but after he leads the flop and the turn pairs queens I don't think he's folding 1 out of 6 times.

[wildwood]

What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[GetThere1Time]

Assuming BB thinks that much.

Maybe BB puts Nate on AK and c/r's the turn with pocket 2's.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably pretty important.

Particularily, if the BB assumes Nate would NOT be betting a draw on the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

I check too, for reasons already stated. He is not folding his J, and perhaps not folding a pocket pair either. He is not folding a draw, and betting here for the river setup (hoping that he does have a draw) costs too much to be made up for by the times you're successful.

[CallMeIshmael]

I would check it at 2/4...

but, I am not willing to rule out that at 15/30 this could be +EV.

I dont know how often you can get a J or smaller pocket pair to fold / set up a profitable river bet.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably pretty important.

Particularily, if the BB assumes Nate would NOT be betting a draw on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this right as I submitted my last reply. And, I think that is the key.

BB, thinking that Nate raised PF with a reasonable hand, may fold PPs after the flop aggression, if followed through on. The PF raise makes it more likely Nate has a Q/J/big pair. The only thing that BB can think he beats is AK/AT at this point, and a lot of players would lay down 77 here.

-d

[NomadCat]

Without a read, I think I take my free card here and nail an 8 on the river.

I guess if I think of this logically, though, he probably leads this with a draw (KT, 9T) to trap the field and not a pair; he'd probably checkraise to thin the field with those. If I were to follow with this assumption, I'd bet the turn (pray I don't get checkraised) and bet the river provided it's a blank and hope to fold-out a K-high.

[imported_stealthcow]

i think reasons to bet again here are folding equity and trying to get a cheap river. if you had 3rd pair and the straight draw, i'd be much more inclined to bet out.

given that if you check behind, the rivers a blank and he bets it is an easy fold, i think you want the free turn instead of a free river.

also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

stealthcow-

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the possibility of betting, getting called, missing on the river, then betting to try and steal the pot. Or, are you checking behind a missed draw? I *never* do this, maybe I should.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the possibility of betting, getting called, missing on the river, then betting to try and steal the pot. Or, are you checking behind a missed draw? I *never* do this, maybe I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the turn with the intention of showing down UI is not good.

Its probably good that you never check the river UI here (after betting the turn)

[brettbrettr]

whew.

[TripleH68]

I realize perception is reality, but I often feel like I am throwing away money in these situations. The turn bet must be followed up by a river bet, then I get called down by Jx or 88-55.

So I guess the key to this hand is a free showdown doesn't mean much. Take the free card and hit the draw.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
whew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, if its a busted AQ high flush draw... well, thats another story.

[wildwood]

I agree Nate's hand has no showdown value without improving. If the BB won't fold to a turn bet, then a river bet is the only way to win if a blank falls and the bb folds a busted draw. Betting the turn is probably wrong if there is absolutely no chance of the bb folding on the turn. imho

[27offsooot]

I think BB would have c/red a J or Q on the flop, so i don't think he has that. But he has to have some sort of hand that he wanted to build a pot with by leading into a two limpers and a PFR that would very likely raise on this flop. So, I would put him on a draw and the only one that i can think of is K10 that he would play this way. The pot is decent, bet the turn and river.

[wildwood]

There is one senario where Nate's hand would have showdown value on the river without improvement. If a Jack falls double pairing the board, any smallish pair that the bb might have in the pocket would be counterfeited.