FADE D. Willis

[arod4276]

Dontrell willis has a history of starting out fast early in the year with his deceptive motion and unorthodox throwing , it seems to take teams a while to get to him.H e has started out 6-0 this year.Dont believe the hype . he isnt much more than a 500 pitcher, and imo will be a great fade for the coming months as he will be very inflated due to his smoking start ...arod4276

[ttleistdci]

[ QUOTE ]
Dontrell willis has a history of starting out fast early in the year with his deceptive motion and unorthodox throwing , it seems to take teams a while to get to him.H e has started out 6-0 this year.Dont believe the hype . he isnt much more than a 500 pitcher, and imo will be a great fade for the coming months as he will be very inflated due to his smoking start ...arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

People said the same thing when he was 2-0, again when he went to 3-0, and everyone jumped off the bandwagon when he went 4-0 thinking he was doomed.
Give the guy some credit...he has pitched lights out so far. He's not gonna go 25-0, but don't make it seem like he's bound to bust.

[arod4276]

But I awaited until now to give my opinion .... i WOULD BE WILLING TO BET FROM THIS DAY OUT HE IS AN UNDER 500 PITCHER WHICH WILL BE MINUS MANY MANY UNITS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.. SRRY BOUT THE CAPS,,,AROD4276

[mrbaseball]

I just took a look at his ERA splits over the past 3 years.

April 2.73
May 4.42
June 2.84
July 2.86
Aug 5.35
Sept 3.55
Pre Astar 3.15
Post Astar 4.30

Historically he seems to like June and July along with April. But he's young and just getting better and maturing and learning more and more how to pitch. As the league learns him he is learning the league.

I say this guy is a major talent. I say he will still be effective from here on in. Maybe he runs out of gas by August? And maybe he matures and strengthens to stay strong at the end? Sure he'll have some bad stretches but I don't see him turning into a sub .500 pitcher.

[FishHooks]

Also hard to compare a NL picters ERA to an AL picters ERA bec ause of the DH factor, but then again he might have to pitch to Mike Hampton one day, who says he should just walk him? lol

[mrbaseball]

Who compared him to AL? The guy has had 2 full seasons and a month and has performed better than almost all NL pitchers during that time.

Just because he has a funky motion people figure it's a gimmick that will expire. If it was a fluke it would have expired for good a year and a half ago. These guys are professionals who get paid millions to hit baseballs. This guy has good stuff and most guys have trouble hitting it.

[FishHooks]

Are you like married to this guy or something, good lord take a chill pill.

[mrbaseball]

??????????? Huh?

Just getting involved in the discussion and not rambling incoherently like the AL vs NL post. I have no interest in Willis other than figuring if the line is correct or not when he pitches. And I have no reason to believe he will suddenly start to suck.

[arod4276]

GOOD posts mr baseball... I am not advocating his overall record will be sub 500 year end ,only that from now on he will be 500/ sub 500 and will be overvalued greatly. Twice this year at home he had been at 175 fav which imo is way overvalued in the long run...

[J.R.]

that's a cute theory but you obviously haven't spent too much time watching him pitch (and learn how to pitch) over the last 2+ years. I'll give you a hint: Control. its better. 1st pitch strikes are goot.

[arod4276]

i will give u another clue,,, he is way overvalued when being a 230 chalk at home and 150 on the road...Would you care to make a standing wager on him for the rest of the year? ILL take whomever they play and you can have d WILLIS .We can use pinnacle closing lines? I wont hold my breathe. arod4276

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
he is way overvalued when being a 230 chalk

[/ QUOTE ]

In my mind everyone is overvalued at 230 chalk. I almost never lay more than -130ish on anything (unless I'm getting runs). I like the dogs and the bigger the better. There is almost never much value to be found above the -200 range. There are generally plenty of easier edges to find away from the big favs (and often against them).

If he stays healthy I'll predict Willis as an allstar, 16+ wins and top tem in league ERA. But at -230 I'll probably be betting against him /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think you need to keep in mind that he's only 23 and has, what, 2 full seasons under his belt already? A lot of guys are still 2 years away from their first major league start.

[arod4276]

i think you need to realize we are gambling here,, and it doesnt mean [censored] how old he is if hes a -230 fav VERY OVERRATED.. ARE U telling me hes randy or pedro is there prime? thats -230 arod4276

[ QUOTE ]
i think you need to realize we are gambling here,, and it doesnt mean [censored] how old he is if hes a -230 fav VERY OVERRATED.. ARE U telling me hes randy or pedro is there prime? thats -230 arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get nasty with me, jackass.

Go ahead, ignore everyone else, and fade him all season. And when you're broke, you'll look back and say "jeez how did he get so good all of a sudden".

And don't worry about who he's playing, either. If he's got 22 starts at home against Colorado, you should bet against him every time. Because you should fade him. Because he's no good after April. Because because because ... because you're an idiot.

See you at the poorhouse.

[TheRover]

If you want to make a small, friendly wager on Willis' W/L record for the rest of the season let me know. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Dontrell willis has a history of starting out fast early in the year with his deceptive motion and unorthodox throwing , it seems to take teams a while to get to him.H e has started out 6-0 this year.Dont believe the hype . he isnt much more than a 500 pitcher, and imo will be a great fade for the coming months as he will be very inflated due to his smoking start ...arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wondering how this has been working out for you.

[John Kruk]

'Trelle, as I call him, is the best pitcher since Christy Mathewson. He is a brilliant young fellow with many prospects. The Marlins are winning the 2005 World Series.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dontrell willis has a history of starting out fast early in the year with his deceptive motion and unorthodox throwing , it seems to take teams a while to get to him.H e has started out 6-0 this year.Dont believe the hype . he isnt much more than a 500 pitcher, and imo will be a great fade for the coming months as he will be very inflated due to his smoking start ...arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wondering how this has been working out for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

bump

If he really did it, he actually had a decent run of 2 or 3 starts there last month, where Willis got bombed.

[ QUOTE ]
If he really did it, he actually had a decent run of 2 or 3 starts there last month, where Willis got bombed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. DTrain has a history of being great in the first half and sucky in the second.

[arod4276]

Since i made the post he had gone 8-6 with an era close to 4.5. He has slid alot,, just like i predicted, but honestly not quite as much as expected.

Niss you are a clueless retard when it comes to sportsbetting so please STFU.

[arod4276]

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player41427.html



Just for you niss you retard. Last 10 starts his team is 5-5. They have been a favorite in all 10 games anywhere from -120 all the way to -200.Since i made that post his play he declined alot, and fading him every play would have made u a bit of coin, though to be fair not quite as much as i tought initially

[ QUOTE ]
Dontrell willis has a history of starting out fast early in the year with his deceptive motion and unorthodox throwing , it seems to take teams a while to get to him.H e has started out 6-0 this year.Dont believe the hype . he isnt much more than a 500 pitcher, and imo will be a great fade for the coming months as he will be very inflated due to his smoking start ...arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

Congratulations!!! You could not have been more dead on with this one...nice work.

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player41427.html



Just for you niss you retard. Last 10 starts his team is 5-5. They have been a favorite in all 10 games anywhere from -120 all the way to -200.Since i made that post his play he declined alot, and fading him every play would have made u a bit of coin, though to be fair not quite as much as i tought initially

[/ QUOTE ]

You wait until the bet swings in your favor and then respond? Gutless. Where were you when your idea was getting killed? Dead silence. Could hear the crickets. Very weak, but not unexpected based upon your other dumbass, disrespectful posts.

PS, when you get one right, make like you've been there before. Even if you haven't.

[arod4276]

dumbass, you bumped the thread, not I. I was just responding to you childish bump...Nice call also ,,,

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]

PS, when you get one right, make like you've been there before. Even if you haven't.

[/ QUOTE ]

And make like you plan to be back. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
dumbass, you bumped the thread, not I. I was just responding to you childish bump...Nice call also ,,,

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there a rule about not being allowed to post if you don't know how to read? I bumped it on June 8. Your silence was conspicuous (I know, big word ... it means you were too much of a little girl to repond at that time ... another big word). Someone else bumped it later. Moron.

[arod4276]

Well dipshit since you asked, did you ever think that since i dont frequent this forum 24/7 that when u bumped it on the 8th that i wasnt reading the forum for the 24 or so hours it was on the front page dipshit? So they first time i actually saw your incorrect and childish bump was when it was bumped again, a few days ago. UNDERSTAND now dipshit?

[ QUOTE ]
Well dipshit since you asked, did you ever think that since i dont frequent this forum 24/7 that when u bumped it on the 8th that i wasnt reading the forum for the 24 or so hours it was on the front page dipshit? So they first time i actually saw your incorrect and childish bump was when it was bumped again, a few days ago. UNDERSTAND now dipshit?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're funny.

I mean "funny" as in "retarded".

Now go away, gnat.

[arod4276]

lmao,,,,you are truly a bafoon. PROVED WRONG Once again he takes his ball and goes home. [censored] off man , and stfu In the entire thread you havent said one constructive word.So with that .......

[arod4276]

ALSO have u ever posted one winner or informative post in this entire forum?

[ QUOTE ]
ALSO have u ever posted one winner or informative post in this entire forum?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Never. My documented record is 0-832.

Don't you have a meeting with the 6 other dwarves, Dopey?

[arod4276]

Good one ,.. evade the question at hand, and turn it into 4th grade at recess...lmao bafoon was to generous

[ QUOTE ]
Good one ,.. evade the question at hand, and turn it into 4th grade at recess...lmao buffoon was too generous

[/ QUOTE ]

Speaking of 4th grade ... no, that would be an insult to 4th graders.

[TheRover]

bump /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
bump /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CCx]

Found this in my list of 'favorite threads'

Probably worth at least pointing out that Willis went 16-10 on the rest of the season after the original post.

Hope you didn't lose too much money FADING him!

[mrbaseball]

I was wondering when this would ressurect? I hope he wins Cy Young /images/graemlins/smile.gif