PDA

View Full Version : -EV on the river?


moot
05-10-2005, 11:43 AM
They were so passive. Man, I was so CLOSE!

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

mmbt0ne
05-10-2005, 11:47 AM
That's a hard play to make into 3 opponents, especially when only 1 of them has shown signs of giving up.

davelin
05-10-2005, 11:48 AM
Raise pre-flop. Check the river, I'm fairly certain you didn't win this hand.

moot
05-10-2005, 11:49 AM
Holy hell you're right. Why on earth didn't I raise this preflop...

Wow, I didn't even realize. I normally do...

But yeah, there's too many of 'em. I think with one less it might be an okay shot. Only has to work a small % of the time.

Dunno
05-10-2005, 11:50 AM
Hehehe well nice try. This is very readdependent but usually dont bet it. ppl love to so what there opponents had and could call w just a pair of 5s in this spot. if u feel that u could trick them u should try but dont try it to often and not in small pots.
But in this case when u have 5 persons left in the pot ur bet is doomed to fail.

GL // Dunno

gopnik
05-10-2005, 11:51 AM
you are bluffing into 4 people with a big pot. You'll get called 99% of the time.
I like raising preflop too. (although I myself not doing it yet)

moot
05-10-2005, 11:53 AM
When did this become 5 handed on the end?

Where is this 4th other person that everyone keeps talking about?

joeski19
05-10-2005, 11:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a hard time raising this with 3 limpers in front of me. I wouldn't have a problem if I was first in. Are you raising because they limped?

istewart
05-10-2005, 11:56 AM
Shouldn't you have an easier time raising it with the limpers in front of you, and you on the button?

jrz1972
05-10-2005, 11:56 AM
We have a hand that plays very well multiway, we have the button, and we have three limpers who are probably not very good (.5/1). This is a good spot to raise for value.

Edit: I would raise ATo here as well, but I feel better about raising with QJs than I do with ATo with three limpers already in. With just one limper or if I were first in, I would rather have ATo.

moot
05-10-2005, 11:58 AM
OK I GET IT. I KNOW I SHOULD HAVE RAISED PREFLOP.

God, I pratically have the damn chart memorized and I understand it and why, and I normally raise. Dunno why I didn't.

Not the point.

davelin
05-10-2005, 12:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a hard time raising this with 3 limpers in front of me. I wouldn't have a problem if I was first in. Are you raising because they limped?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I believe it's quite the opposite. With limpers you can make this raise based on equity.

joeski19
05-10-2005, 12:03 PM
Ok, I get the reasoning. I'm still working on my PF aggression.


Hey moot they were talking to me in the minor thread jack. You can tell by the subject line. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

moot
05-10-2005, 12:06 PM
Fair enough.

afk
05-10-2005, 12:12 PM
Betting rivers like this will probably lose you a lot more money than not raising preflop in the long run. Sure, it only has to work a small percentage of the time but with a big pot and 3 opponents I really really really don't think it'll work often enough. Just check behind.

car ramrod
05-10-2005, 01:46 PM
I'm not betting this river, you aren't going to get 3 people to fold.

The rest looks good.

Edit: I would raise this pf.

Buckmulligan
05-10-2005, 03:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time raising this with 3 limpers in front of me. I wouldn't have a problem if I was first in. Are you raising because they limped?


[/ QUOTE ]

For those of you not leaping at the opportunity to raise this hand, you are losing a lot of value. I raise QJs UTG; it fairs pretty well in these games.

theghost
05-10-2005, 03:07 PM
check the river against this many opponents.

theghost
05-10-2005, 03:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I raise QJs UTG;

[/ QUOTE ]
I would recommend a limp with QJs UTG. Is it a green hand for you in PT from that position?

Buckmulligan
05-10-2005, 03:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I would recommend a limp with QJs UTG. Is it a green hand for you in PT from that position?

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker tracker isn't really too relevant because of sample size. We do know, however, that KQ is a mandatory UTG raise, and that hand plays worse in both large multiway pots and short handed 3 bet pots. Therefore, when you can expect action behind, this is a strong hand to be raising with, IMO.

Rev. Good Will
05-10-2005, 03:21 PM
nobody would raise this turn, trapping the field for another 3 bets?

Buckmulligan
05-10-2005, 03:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
nobody would raise this turn, trapping the field for another 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming you raise and get 3 callers, your equity is a little less than even; however, it might boost your implied odds on the river.

Still, I don't think the raise is a good idea. Like I said, I think with implied, you gain nothing if all 3 players come along, but if one of them doesn't come along, you are screwed.

theghost
05-10-2005, 03:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
KQ is a mandatory UTG raise, and that hand plays worse in both large multiway pots and short handed 3 bet pots.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'm following, are you saying JQs &gt; KQo multiway and shorthanded?

jrz1972
05-10-2005, 03:53 PM
How is KQo worse than QJs in shorthanded pots? I don't get it.

UTG, I'm raising KQo precisely because I want to play that hand short-handed, and I'm limping with QJs precisely because I want to play that hand multiway.

moot
05-10-2005, 03:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
nobody would raise this turn, trapping the field for another 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Defintely not. I'm putting in 25% of the pot and probably only have about a 20% chance to win, and raising isn't going to buy me any outs.

But even if I had a slight equity edge, calling would definitely be better. Do you see why? (haha)

Anyway, the reason is, by allowing the EP bettor to be turn aggressor, if he's aggressive he'll likely bet the river even if the flush card comes, and I can trap anyone who decides to call. And if the EP guy decides to check when I make the flush oh well, it's not like I lost much because my equity was pretty close to break even on the turn.

I lose the least when I miss and make the most when I hit.

Unless I decide to bluff the end, heh......

theghost
05-10-2005, 04:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
UTG, I'm raising KQo precisely because I want to play that hand short-handed, and I'm limping with QJs precisely because I want to play that hand multiway.

[/ QUOTE ]

afk
05-10-2005, 05:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I raise QJs UTG;

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. But I suppose you gotta draw the line somewhere.

i wanna be me
05-10-2005, 05:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I raise QJs UTG;

[/ QUOTE ]

wow - that just sounds retarded