I hate calling, part 2

[dfscott]

Another calling opportunity. Some facts:

- This is a 33.
- Pusher is a 2+2'er.
- Blinds go up in about 2-3 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2175)
MP (t840)
Hero (t785)
SB (t2470)
BB (t1730)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Folded to MP, who pushes. Hero ???

[Tilt]

I like a call here. There is a very good chance you have him dominated. And in your situation, I'll gladly take a 60/40 gamble to double up rather than wait. Your fold equity is dwindling so I'm not sure waiting is a good idea. I think you should gladly accept the risk that its a coinflip in exchange for the possibility that you have him dominated.

[swarm]

wow, almost similar situation but I think this is an easier call. I hate calling as well but once again I call especially since this a 2+2er. Especially if the blinds are going up in 2 hands which would be my big blind.

The only reason I advocate pushing in both these situations is how shortstacked you are. With blinds moving up a blind steal isn't going to get you into position to make a run for the money. You need to double up and double up soon and I don't see a better situation than this one coming as if you win you get both villans stack and the blinds. If you win the hand now you can dictate the game and you are back playing for first. Fold and you are forced to push one of the next 2 hands.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Call.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, almost similar situation

[/ QUOTE ]

no it isn't. the only thing similiar is the stack sizes. I think I myself would call here because I need to flip coins alot to win but a case could be made for folding. Even if you fold the next set of blinds, you have 650 left and that's 1/4 of the largest stack. I don't think anyone would want to risk 1/4th of their stack unless they pick up a hand.

[swarm]

Sykes you missed the part where the blinds are going up to 200-100 so the blinds would actually decrease you to 585.

At a table with solid players I don't know if you are going to get a better shot than this one.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Sykes you missed the part where the blinds are going up to 200-100 so the blinds would actually decrease you to 585.

At a table with solid players I don't know if you are going to get a better shot than this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also be interested if anyone would call here with KQo.

[Sykes]

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Sykes you missed the part where the blinds are going up to 200-100 so the blinds would actually decrease you to 585.

At a table with solid players I don't know if you are going to get a better shot than this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also be interested if anyone would call here with KQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not call here with KQo

[Scuba Chuck]

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Some facts:

[/ QUOTE ]

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- Pusher is a 2+2'er.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Folded to MP, who pushes. Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Gets his chips, in the middle, very fast, and doesn't hate it. You're likely a 60/40 favorite, against a 2+2er hand range. This is very +$EV given the circumstances.

Scuba
PS - David, why not do the math on this one? It would be a good exercise for you. And might as well do it with KQo as well. You'll see quite a dichotomy. KQo, is likely a dog against the hand range.

[dfscott]

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Some facts:

[/ QUOTE ]

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- Pusher is a 2+2'er.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Folded to MP, who pushes. Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Gets his chips, in the middle, very fast, and doesn't hate it. You're likely a 60/40 favorite, against a 2+2er hand range. This is very +$EV given the circumstances.

Scuba
PS - David, why not do the math on this one? It would be a good exercise for you. And might as well do it with KQo as well. You'll see quite a dichotomy. KQo, is likely a dog against the hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing the math it ends up being a toss-up against a typical range, but you don't have to move it far to one side or the other to push it to call or fold, so that's why I posted it.

FWIW, at the time, I didn't realize that it was a 2+2'er (I really don't know how I missed it -- ah, the perils of multi-tabling), and I probably would've played it differently if I had.

I know he did a while later when he called me and busted me out. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[microbet]

Anywhere but a $33 this is a call. In a $33 you have to fold in case it's me pushing.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Doing the math it ends up being a toss-up against a typical range, but you don't have to move it far to one side or the other to push it to call or fold, so that's why I posted it.


[/ QUOTE ]

What hand range are you using? My inclination with AQo here is that this should be +$EV. KQo should reflect a -$EV scenario.

My HR is 22+, A5+, any two broadway. Might be a little liberal, but it evens out with those who push with 67s, etc. I also think you could throw in K9 and J9s.

I'd like to see the math your're using. This should be a very easy call, and the ensuing increase in blinds should have pushed you even further into the call side.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I'm calling with KQ.

- Crazy trout on your right
- Big stacks on left
- Not many chips in front of you

You are not going to blind steal your way to victory. Make a stand with KQ.

Maybe the ICM is borderline, but I don't care. I'm not going to sit there and watch him push any 2 while I get blinded off.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling with KQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is -$EV, unless you **mistakenly** include the blinds increasing into your equation. David admits he doesn't know it's a 2er at the time of the hand. Unless he has some other read, I think it's a muck.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doing the math it ends up being a toss-up against a typical range, but you don't have to move it far to one side or the other to push it to call or fold, so that's why I posted it.


[/ QUOTE ]

What hand range are you using? My inclination with AQo here is that this should be +$EV. KQo should reflect a -$EV scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had them on a pretty tight range: 44+, A7s, A9o, KJs+. Probably too tight, actually.

[ QUOTE ]


My HR is 22+, A5+, any two broadway. Might be a little liberal, but it evens out with those who push with 67s, etc. I also think you could throw in K9 and J9s.


[/ QUOTE ]

With that range (which I think it more reasonable than mine, even if they weren't a 2+2'er), you have about +2% difference -- a clear call.

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I'd like to see the math your're using.

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You'll have to talk to eastbay about that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I'm calling with KQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is -$EV, unless you **mistakenly** include the blinds increasing into your equation. David admits he doesn't know it's a 2er at the time of the hand. Unless he has some other read, I think it's a muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the blinds aren't increasing? What else did I get wrong?

[dfscott]

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I'm calling with KQ.


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I think this is -$EV, unless you **mistakenly** include the blinds increasing into your equation. David admits he doesn't know it's a 2er at the time of the hand. Unless he has some other read, I think it's a muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the blinds aren't increasing? What else did I get wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused by your statement as well, Scuba. Are you confusing this hand with the other one where the blinds just went up?

In any case, if I understand what Phil's saying, even if they weren't going up soon, they are eventually and you don't have good position to steal.

[Scuba Chuck]

IMO, I will always try and play at my optimum every time I play a game. If I am unable to do this while 6 tabling, then I will return back to 4 tabling.

IMO, replacing AQo, with KQo, makes this a -$EV call. PVS and I have often discussed when you throw ICM calcs out the window when a hand is marginally +$EV, but we have agreed that we never cross the line if a hand is -$EV. That being said, the fact that AQo is a 60/40 favorite is what makes this hand +$EV. KQo is likely a 48/52 dog, which will make this hand -$EV.

I know the scenario here. You have 3 hands to selectively choose from going forward. I find this to be one of those hands where Phil doesn't like the "fold here and push the next any two" response. That being said, calling with KQo is still -$EV. I have a hard time advocating this hand as a good play.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, I will always try and play at my optimum every time I play a game. If I am unable to do this while 6 tabling, then I will return back to 4 tabling.

IMO, replacing AQo, with KQo, makes this a -$EV call. PVS and I have often discussed when you throw ICM calcs out the window when a hand is marginally +$EV, but we have agreed that we never cross the line if a hand is -$EV. That being said, the fact that AQo is a 60/40 favorite is what makes this hand +$EV. KQo is likely a 48/52 dog, which will make this hand -$EV.

I know the scenario here. You have 3 hands to selectively choose from going forward. I find this to be one of those hands where Phil doesn't like the "fold here and push the next any two" response. That being said, calling with KQo is still -$EV. I have a hard time advocating this hand as a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've said that I pretty much always make +$EV calls. I don't think I've said that I'll always avoid -$EV plays.

I might make plays that ICM thinks are -$EV if the situation requires it because I know that there are some things that the ICM does not account for.

If I'm about to pay the 100/200 blinds and strassa is sitting to my right raising every hand, I'm not folding just because the ICM says its -0.001. The ICM doesn't understand that I won't be getting a better spot than this to make a play before I'm blinded off.

That being said, I ran it on eastbay's calc. If the raiser's range is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9+: the $EV is +0.4% to call with KQo.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, I ran it on eastbay's calc. If the raiser's range is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9+: the $EV is +0.4% to call with KQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, in otherwords, if villain is a maniac then this is +$EV. OK, then I concur.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]

- Crazy trout on your right
- Big stacks on left
- Not many chips in front of you


[/ QUOTE ]

... clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right .. . .

[Nicok7]

call, I'd rather double up and take a shot at first, or loose and move on to the next sit on go. Plus if you say raiser is a 2+2ers we can expect him to raise with a lot, including small aces or dominated queens /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[pokerlaw]

i would call.