AJo Hits TPTK, Drop it or call down?

[Grail]

BB looks is maniac ish, but seems smart post-flop.

VPIP 60.56
PFR 11.27
AF(PostFlop) 1.27
Over 300 hands

His PF 3bet didn't worry me that much. Seen him bet like that with medium pairs or other hands I beat, but not enough to even think about capping it.

Is capping this flop correct? Should the very coordinated board scare me off this early?

After I cap and he leads into me on the turn I'm 90% sure I'm beat with little if any redraws. Call down anyway just in case? He's pretty aggresive, but I haven't seen him make any crazy bluff post flop.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

[@bsolute_luck]

i wouldn't cap the flop (i am MAJORLY guilty of doing the same thing).

curiousity would probably screw me on this hand as i want to know what he 3-bet preflop and is doing all this betting with. KQ? trip tens/nines? so i'd probably call down, but better players may fold the river, maybe even the turn /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[xLukex]

I don't cap this flop.

If he is a true maniac, he will certainly raise hands like JT or 9T. I am a wuss in this hand. I *might* go into call down mode, and call on the river, but that's just because it is what SSHE wants me to do. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[_bustedflush_]

I go to show down way too often, so I am thinking out loud as much as answering you.

Once you get to the turn, you're talking about risking 2 BB to win 2 BB. Whatever you figure the chances of winning are, they've got to be less than 50%. The turn didn't help you. It must be time to fold. This looks like one of those times where the redraw to a gutshot or bd flush makes the difference.

[Piiop]

What do you mean he seems smart postflop? Someone with a VPIP of 60.5 and an AF of 1.27 must be very aggressive postflop.

I'd just call the 3-bet on the flop and call down from there w/o improvement, but I don't see anything with putting another bet in versus a maniac. The coordinated board combined with the pf 3-bet makes me want to slow down sooner, but if he's really maniac than I wouldn't

[ QUOTE ]
After I cap and he leads into me on the turn I'm 90% sure I'm beat with little if any redraws. Call down anyway just in case? He's pretty aggresive, but I haven't seen him make any crazy bluff post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well is he a maniac or isn't he? His stats certainly seem to indicate that he is. I don't know why you would think you're beat here THAT often. I wouldn't consider folding.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Once you get to the turn, you're talking about risking 2 BB to win 2 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

?? What happened to the rest of the pot??

[Buckmulligan]

I would call down after the 3 bet on the flop.

[Grail]

He was very loose PF, but seemed to be willig to fold when he had absolutly nothing after the flop. He was agressive post/flop but nothing that looked completly insane to me.

I to called down because SSH told me to. This pot is to big to give up on TPTK isn't it?

[McGahee]

Some of this advice baffles me.

It seems everyone wants to raise KK with an A on the flop when a predictable, typical Party .5/1 bets, and you have 2 outs.

Here we want to fold TPTK against a borderline maniac? That's insane. Call his flop 3-bet, pop him on the turn when a blank hits, and call down from there. Hero's line is a reasonable alternative. You can't fold this.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of this advice baffles me.

It seems everyone wants to raise KK with an A on the flop when a predictable, typical Party .5/1 bets, and you have 2 outs.

Here we want to fold TPTK against a borderline maniac? That's insane. Call his flop 3-bet, pop him on the turn when a blank hits, and call down from there. Hero's line is a reasonable alternative. You can't fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you looking at the same hand? i think you messed up something...

[McGahee]

No, I was referring to numerous other posts I have read in general.

[Fantam]

I would just point out that once the Q fell on the river, that you no longer had TPTK, but I understand that you were thinking about the flop.

In deciding, whether to call down to the river it would certainly help if you had seen him show down a few hands in other pots earlier to see how much of a maniac he was or wasnt.

In the absence of any other knowledge, I suppose that perhaps you do have to call down to the river.

However, there are 2 points:

1. You didnt have to raise PF. That would have been good if you had thought that everyone behind you would fold. But if you didnt expect that to happen, you would probably have just been better off calling. That way the pot would have been smaller and you would have been less tied to it if you didnt like it.

2. Of course, although the flop was co-ordinated and looked dangerous you did have TPTK, so you had to stay in the hand, but I would not have capped the betting.

So, all that said, if you had not raised PF and capped the betting on the flop, then I would probably have folded to the larger turn size bet, when it appeared that I was beaten.

[Grail]

2 off the button with AJo first into the pot I think I raise 95% of the time. I may not have even looked at who else was left to act, it was just so natural of a play.

The reason I capped was he was an apparent maniac, and I wated to tell him, 'I REALLY DO HAVE A HAND'. My flop raise could have been for a lot of reasons. My flop cap could not. Then he bets into me on the turn anyway and he's telling me, I don't care, I still have you beat.

I thought about folding, but the pot was huge and I felt like such a wimp droping TPTK in a big pot.

The Q on the river didn't matter. He had to be betting something that wasn't waiting on a Q to hit. If he turns over AQ then I really can peg him as a total maniac from there on out.

I'll post results in anyway cares after a few more posts.

-G

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
1. You didnt have to raise PF. That would have been good if you had thought that everyone behind you would fold. But if you didnt expect that to happen, you would probably have just been better off calling. That way the pot would have been smaller and you would have been less tied to it if you didnt like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read this (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue4/malmuth0405.html)

[Grail]

The example they give is with several limpers in front of you.

I was first into the pot with decent but not great position. Raising could win right there(very ulikely), or at least buy me the button.

Keeping the pot small could help me outplay a maniac post-flop, but I didn't see the advantage as being worth giving up the PF raise for value.

So I'm going to stand by my PF raise on this one.

The Flop cap I'm not so sure about. It's hard to get real information from a maniac, but I thought that this might do it. Then again maybe it told me everything I needed to know. Get the hell outta dodge time.

After reading all the posts about never droping a hand with any chance to win in a big pot I couldn't let this one go.

But was this that 1 in 100 time to go ahead and drop TPTK?

-G

[gvibes]

Open-limping at this position would be a tragedy. Open-limping with AJo would be an even greater tragedy. Fold? I would have probably puked on my keyboard.