Fold or pay off against unknown opponent?

[olavfo]

My fourth hand at this table, so let's assume villain is your generic microlimit opponent.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero?

After villain's 3-bet the pot is 9.5 BB. Assuming villain bets the river I must risk 2 BB to win 11.5 BB. The effective odds are 5.75 : 1, so I need to win a showdown 15% of the time.

The fact that he checks both flop and turn, makes me suspect he has an ace with a marginal kicker (he didn't raise preflop), but is afraid of the flush, but when he 3-bets I'm confused. When BB and UTG fold, the situation becomes a little easier, but I'm still not sure whether to pay off or fold.

Comments?

olavfo

[@bsolute_luck]

why didn't you raise preflop?
why didn't you bet the flop?

SB 3-bet? i think you're done and wouldn't even be suprised to see a 45 straight. i'd just call down. it is 1 back to you and no one else is in the hand to keep ramming you.

[NateDog]

[ QUOTE ]
My fourth hand at this table, so let's assume villain is your generic microlimit opponent.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero?

After villain's 3-bet the pot is 9.5 BB. Assuming villain bets the river I must risk 2 BB to win 11.5 BB. The effective odds are 5.75 : 1, so I need to win a showdown 15% of the time.

The fact that he checks both flop and turn, makes me suspect he has an ace with a marginal kicker (he didn't raise preflop), but is afraid of the flush, but when he 3-bets I'm confused. When BB and UTG fold, the situation becomes a little easier, but I'm still not sure whether to pay off or fold.

Comments?

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that he checked the flop and c/r'd the turn makes me think 'monster' not 'weak ace', assuming typical party player.

Ugh, I missed the lack of PF raise.

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
why didn't you raise preflop?
why didn't you bet the flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my thinking:

I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

I check the flop to see where I'm at. I plan to fold if there's much aggression and reevaluate the situation on the turn if it's checked around.

It may be better to probe with a bet on the flop and fold to aggression, but if villain is slowplaying a flush, he will probably just call and I'm no wiser.

olavfo

[@bsolute_luck]

well that all may be true, but now you're faced with a 3-bet and are confused. since you figure you didn't know where you were on the flop, i can only see you assuming the same on the turn since the 3 can only help a 45 or some random 2 pair holding, but you think he is really 3-betting that?

i'm saying since you went into the hand feared with AJ, then fold.

[Dave G.]

Bad PF limp. If you're going to play this you need to raise, the whole hand changes after that. If you don't want to play it this early, fold.

Bet the flop too. Why play so passively?

I'd fold the turn, you've let these people draw at you for free and you have no clue what they have or where you stand.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of flops are you hoping for with this hand? Big unsuited cards don't have a lot of multiway value. You need to raise to thin the field.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of flops are you hoping for with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think an A or a J would've been good.
Limping is fine with this.

[droolie]

I would've bet the flop. I fold to that C/R. I don't think you win this hand 10%.

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad PF limp. If you're going to play this you need to raise, the whole hand changes after that. If you don't want to play it this early, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm ... agreed, I just made problems for myself by limping. Now when I think about it, it's embarrasingly weak.

Raise preflop, bet flop if checked to, and reevaluate the situation if I'm faced with agression. That would be better.

olavfo

[xenthebrain]

Raise preflop with AJo.
You made this hand a lot harder to play with so many players seeing the flop so cheap.

I think you can fold the turn here, SB slowplayed a flush.
This is not a spot to bluff against a bet and raise.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think an A or a J would've been good.
Limping is fine with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pair isn't likely to win against a large field, which is what you encourage when you limp. There could be all sorts of draws out there that you won't know about until you're beaten.

I don't agree that limping is fine. Infact I think limping here is a rather significant error.

[i wanna be me]

I don't mind this limp - limping AJ in early position is certainly close in EV to raising it (depends on the game - tight = call, loose = raise).

you have to bet this flop - top pair good kicker - if raised, call and re-evaluate on the turn. if you bet the flop, UTG probably doesn't bet the turn

in this particular hand, the pot is 4.5 BB when action is on you - it's so tough since you didn't bet the flop. in your situation I'd probably fold my top pair in this puny pot (you have 5 people behind you who could be raising). raising is definitely the worst choice of the 3 in such a small pot and a whole bunch of people.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind this limp - limping AJ in early position is certainly close in EV to raising it (depends on the game - tight = call, loose = raise).

you have to bet this flop - top pair good kicker - if raised, call and re-evaluate on the turn. if you bet the flop, UTG probably doesn't bet the turn

in this particular hand, the pot is 4.5 BB when action is on you - it's so tough since you didn't bet the flop. in your situation I'd probably fold my top pair in this puny pot (you have 5 people behind you who could be raising). raising is definitely the worst choice of the 3 in such a small pot and a whole bunch of people.

[/ QUOTE ]

wha? so you'll raise an offsuit hand in a loose game where many people will call you with junk, but you'll call a tight hand, where if you had raised to thin the field, you have a stronger possibility of winning? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

if you're not going to play AJo from UTG, then you should just fold it. limping is a horrible suggestion IMHO.

[GoHoosiers]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're not going to play AJo from UTG, then you should just fold it. limping is a horrible suggestion IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. It's a hand that -many times- IS the best hand PF, but is vulnerable if you limp and let in the whole field (that hold T9, Q9s, etc.) Blow those people out by raising. If it gets 3-bet, then you just tread carefully post-flop.


Rich

[GoHoosiers]

More AJo discussion

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1875086&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think an A or a J would've been good.
Limping is fine with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pair isn't likely to win against a large field, which is what you encourage when you limp. There could be all sorts of draws out there that you won't know about until you're beaten.

I don't agree that limping is fine. Infact I think limping here is a rather significant error.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh...
I personally side with Lee Jones on this one. Raising AJo from EP draws cold-callers who could have better hands that you also "won't know about until you're beaten". Of course you could make the argument that there are enough idiots who would call a single bet with any 2 cards. But if that's the kind of table you're at I wonder how many people you're really shutting out with a PFR?

A PFR isn't bad, but I think it's marginal either way. And for all of the kool-aid that people drink around here, it's ironic that not many seem to have understood Miller's "Big leak vs. Small leak" thread. Too many of these hand posts get too much PF discussion and not enough post-flop.

[Shillx]

Get in the habit of instamucking in this type of situation. Meep made a post a long time ago where he was check/raised on the turn after he raised preflop and the flop checked through. Everyone told him to calldown after he hit top pair. I told him to instamuck since he was looking at a set and that is what he got shown. Anyone who has enough patience to check both the flop and turn and then raise (or 3-bet) has the hand he is representing. No other hand could risk getting checked through again (ie. a set).

Brad