JJ with shallow stacks, heads up, one overcard on the flop

[Phoenix1010]

In keeping with my recent trend, I'm going to continue posting very basic and uninteresting hands that I'm unsure about, late at night when no one will answer me. It's fun.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t600)
CO (t455)
Button (t1225)
SB (t1135)
BB (t1270)
UTG (t1550)
UTG+1 (t630)
Hero (t740)
MP2 (t395)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t175</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t125.

Flop: (t375) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero?

Should I check, bet a reasonable amount, or push?

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
[...] late at night when no one will answer me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're lucky you might just catch a scraggler or two...fresh off an 0-fer night at the bar, realizing that he may have choked when he dropped the cute girl he was macking for her *much" hotter friend, and ended up screwing yourself over, dropping the ball, and back in his apartment, alone, blue-balled, microwaving day-old stroganoff and perusing 2+2, congizant of the streadily increasing pain in his forehead, and realizing that every ounze of water he drinks will help, but not eliminate that ugly morning he will awake to.

I mean, im not sure if any of *those* guys are around, but since they arent, i'll make a reply /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I see two good lines here. Either push (duh), or check it and see what he does leading the turn, after he sees you check. The problem with the latter line is he will come at you with either a Q or 10, and you wont really knwo which it is.
Fack man, i dunno, i'd just cop out and push the flop. That pots pretty big relative to your reamining stack. If you're beat, you're beat.

* This advice might be okay, or might be crap. If its the latter, i'll correct myself tomorrow.

And dude, i answered your post, give me your thoughts on mine, "on reads"...it took me over half an hour in my dehydrated state, it'd be cool to get a response before i hit the sack.

Word'em, BL

[Phoenix1010]

Haha this response is awesome. As to the first part, we've all been there. Hitting on two girls in the same night is tricky, but +EV overall. Doesn't always work out though (I've got a good story of me drunkenly maccin on two best friends at the same time, alternating between them in the same conversation, while they were both sober. It didn't work out so well.). Don't be upset at tonight's bad beats, there's another game tomorrow.

As to the second part, yeah I ended up confusedly pushing the flop, and taking it down, which isn't a bad result. I just thought it was interesting that I didn't really know what I should be doing.

As to third, I just happened to be in the process of typing a response to the on reads thing, which is a way more interesting topic than my yawn inducing JJ hand.

-Phoenix

[treeofwisdom7]

with one oppt and the stack you have i would bet around the pot and if i got pushed i would think about how that player plays i prolly would then lay down the JACKS. but i could be wrong and sinse nobody is posting i maybe wrong

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
with one oppt and the stack you have i would bet around the pot and if i got pushed i would think about how that player plays i prolly would then lay down the JACKS. but i could be wrong and sinse nobody is posting i maybe wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey don't be scared to be wrong, thanks for posting. I'll try to help you out.

I raised to 175 preflop from a stack of t740, leaving me with t565 on the flop. On the flop the pot contained t375. If I were to bet the pot of t375, I would be left with t190. If I got reraised, even thinking about folding for my last t190 would be madness, since I would be getting 4:1 on my call, and there's not a whole lot I could do with t190 anyway. So if I'm going to bet so much that I can't consider folding, I might as well push.

[treeofwisdom7]

oh isee. yah then i would do a stop n go .. jacks are a good hand to go in with.. yah i was replying to a post of a post so i couldnt see the chip stacks when i typed it..
thankx

[Cry Me A River]

I think this is a pretty clear push, your stack isn't big enough to make any other bet. I can't really see him not betting out with a Q, except for slowplaying QQ. I suppose he might also slowplay AA/KK but that's pretty unlikely, I think you're almost always ahead here and you don't really want to give him free cards if he has an A or K or even something silly like KJ.

Even if he had pushed the flop, I have a hard time getting away with this, there's just too many hands that pull a stop &amp; go here that you're way ahead of (AK, AT, JT). A more standard bet, maybe...

[lorinda]

Should I check, bet a reasonable amount, or push?

You could also consider betting an unreasonable amount.

Some kind of 60 point bet and a turn check would probably leave you having to call 90 or so on the river.

I'm not saying I do this here, in fact I have no idea what I do here because I'm not very awake yet, but it's certainly an option in some similar scenarios.

Lori

[mosdef]

i think you're better off with a preflop limp here. you've tossed in a huge chunk of your stack on a hand where you're more than likely facing an overcard on the flop. you really need to hit your set here, because you're going to be seriously at risk on most flops, and it's too early for that IMO.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
I raised to 175 preflop from a stack of t740, leaving me with t565 on the flop. On the flop the pot contained t375. If I were to bet the pot of t375, I would be left with t190. If I got reraised, even thinking about folding for my last t190 would be madness, since I would be getting 4:1 on my call, and there's not a whole lot I could do with t190 anyway. So if I'm going to bet so much that I can't consider folding, I might as well push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

Jacks are hard to play. I probably would have pushed them preflop to avoid having to ever make the decision. Not sure what the EV of that is (always pushing to avoid decision)

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're better off with a preflop limp here. you've tossed in a huge chunk of your stack on a hand where you're more than likely facing an overcard on the flop. you really need to hit your set here, because you're going to be seriously at risk on most flops, and it's too early for that IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

With less than 800 chips, limping on level 3 is usually a big mistake. with a healthy stack, 50 chips does not represent much of a difference, but there's a big difference between 700 chips and 650 chips; you do not want to be bleeding large chunks of your level 4 fold equity without a fight.

In that situation, the blinds actually do mean something to you, so taking it down preflop is worthwhile. It's actually a bit more likely that an overcard won't fall on the flop, but even when one does, you're not necessarily done with the hand. It's way too late to play JJ for set value. Unless you're up against multiple opponents, you don't have to worry about all three overcards. One opponent can't have AKQ, and you can't let your own fear make you give away heads up pots that you should be winning. Against multiple opponents, an overcard will usually mean that you are beaten, and this is why you raise to thin the field.

-Phoenix

[xPuns1her]

I make a bet here a little less than the pot or something enough to push him off of a straight draw in that situation. If he calls and checks the river then check because he might have you dominated and try a check raise. If you check here he is just going to bet the river and you'll have to fold.

[mosdef]

i don't disagree with your logic, but i disagree with the conclusion. i still think that you're taking a chance now for some chips that you will be able to get later (via blind steals) with more certainty.

i guess it boils down to what your own personal preferences are. i acknowledge that i have virtually no conventional poker skills (i.e. post flop play), but i've got a lot of confidence in my bubble play vs. 22 and down opponents. hence, i don't see the point in gambling for 200 chips now when a blind steal later on will net me 300.

also, i am not so sure that your fold equity drops off the table if you dip below 700 chips. in level 4 and 5 typical opponents will drop hands to any moderate all-in (in my experience).

[Richie Rich]

Two important factors to consider:
(1) When you're holding JJ, there's roughly a 70% chance that at least one overcard will fall on the flop;
(2) BB (not CO, button or UTG) called your &gt;3xBB raise...I'm always cautious when I raise and only the blind calls my noticable pf raise.

I think raising to 125-150 btf would've been fine. Not only would it have made the pot smaller, but it would have made you less committed to the pot. In this case, however, I would bet 200 on the flop and try to check down if he calls. At least you have position...

[mosdef]

70%? i don't think so. 50 cards out there, 12 overcards.

Prob(no overcards) = (38/50)*(37/49)*(36/48) = 43%
Prob(overcards) = 1 - 43% = 57%

and this assumes that you aren't taking into account that if your opponent calls then it's likely that there's one or two in his hand.