Did I let go of this hand to soon?

[chipolino]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, MP3 calls, BB calls. Any ideas of how to proceed here?

River: (17.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

[droolie]

I don't like it. The pot is too big to give him credit for the set. He could have an overpair you beat or be pumping a str8 and picked up a flush draw on the turn. The A has me concerned that one of the callers has me beat now though. I'd probably call the turn and hold my breath that no one raises.

[toss]

Villain led the turn Ace turn after Hero capped on the flop. The pot is big, but I think we're beat here.

[@bsolute_luck]

what about the flop cap? is that too much?

you have a read on him at all? loose enough to play 86? what about pumping a straight draw? does he simply limp in with TT or JJ or even higher?

i get nervous when typical players 3-bet on a flop like this. usually it is a set or rag 2pair, but it could be higher pair. i think i'd call the 3-bet on the flop, but villain keeps going on an Ace turn? unless he is loco or LAG, i think we're toast.

[Grail]

I would actually be all kinds of happy when he bet allowing you to raise and face the field with 2 cold. But then something bad happened, 2 callers and a 3-bet. The cap is still probubly good since you are fairly likely to still be best.

If he has 2P you can still win by spiking a Q, or pairing the board. It's at least 50-50 your ahread here, and a decent draw if your not.

Turn fold is horrible. This pot is HUGE. If you have any chance of winning it you should stick around. The risk of getting in the middle of a raising war is troubling so proceed with caution, but for 1 bet you must make this call.

-G

[chipolino]

No man no reads, him betting out despite the the Ace on the turn just set alarm bells in my head. It was tough but I had to let it go. I'll post the results in an hour or so. Just trying to get more comments on people.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn fold is horrible. This pot is HUGE. If you have any chance of winning it you should stick around. The risk of getting in the middle of a raising war is troubling so proceed with caution, but for 1 bet you must make this call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I am probably at least 80% certain that MP1 has us beat here. I can't imagine many holdings that MP1 would cap the flop then lead the turn when the A fell. We are getting 15:1 on our call, which is way more than enough if it was HU. However, with 2 players still left to act, and the overwhelming tendency of .5/1 players to call down with Aces, I think this tips it in favour of folding. Though the pot is large, our chances of winning is just too small, and combining that with the possibility of being raised, I think we have to fold.

[Grail]

You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

This theory is mostly aimed at calling a single river bet. It basically means that if the pot is 10BB, and it only costs you 1BB to call and you are closing the action, if you win the pot more than 10% of the time, it will be a profitable call. If you think there is even some possibility of your hand being good (your opponent is bluffing, or being a donk with a marginal hand) then you should call. You should be more inclined to call as the pot grows larger. Folding a winner in a large pot for one bet is a HUGE mistake.

There is a large section on this in SSH, and also, I recommend reading Ed Miller's post Why you guys aren't crushing these microlimit games... (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=462860&amp;Fo rum=f21&amp;Words=crushing&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main= 462860&amp;Search=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=43&amp;daterange =1&amp;newerval=2&amp;newertype=y&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bod yprev=#Post462860)

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very important concept. You have to understand this to survive. It's str8-up math. You make an educated guess about how often your opponent has you beaten and how often he doesn't. You must be conservative with this estimate but always include the possiblity of a bluff or way overplayed random hand you beat. If the amount you have to pay is a smaller % than the odds the pot is giving you, you make money on the call over the cours of many many times being in that sitaution.

Here's the classic example that should make this clear...
Let's say the pot was a million dollars and you have to make a decision about whether or not to call the bet. If you are likely to lose 95 times out of a 100 but it only costs you $1 to call the bet you call it every time right? If you were 100% likely to lose you would fold. But since there is a 5% chance to win you call. The same thing happens in poker to a smaller degree all the time. If the pot has $20 in it and it will cost you $2 to see if you win it you have to be right 10% of the time to breakeven. If you win 20% of the time you show a very nice profit.

[chipolino]

[ QUOTE ]

There is a large section on this in SSH

[/ QUOTE ]

Page 149 "Continuing When You Might Be Drawing Dead"

We also have to remember that we 're drawing to 2 outs (22:1)

[LouDogg33]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn fold is horrible. This pot is HUGE. If you have any chance of winning it you should stick around. The risk of getting in the middle of a raising war is troubling so proceed with caution, but for 1 bet you must make this call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I am probably at least 80% certain that MP1 has us beat here. I can't imagine many holdings that MP1 would cap the flop then lead the turn when the A fell. We are getting 15:1 on our call, which is way more than enough if it was HU. However, with 2 players still left to act, and the overwhelming tendency of .5/1 players to call down with Aces, I think this tips it in favour of folding. Though the pot is large, our chances of winning is just too small, and combining that with the possibility of being raised, I think we have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Scotty. If it were HU, I would possibly make the call, but with several people in the pot you've gotta be beat at this point, and facing a possible flush draw. Plus, as far as odds are concerned, you not only have to worry about the turn bet, odds are that he's gonna bet the river. And what if someone does hit that flush, and you don't hit one of your two outs, you're just giving up your money IMHO.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very important concept. You have to understand this to survive. It's str8-up math. You make an educated guess about how often your opponent has you beaten and how often he doesn't. You must be conservative with this estimate but always include the possiblity of a bluff or way overplayed random hand you beat. If the amount you have to pay is a smaller % than the odds the pot is giving you, you make money on the call over the cours of many many times being in that sitaution.

Here's the classic example that should make this clear...
Let's say the pot was a million dollars and you have to make a decision about whether or not to call the bet. If you are likely to lose 95 times out of a 100 but it only costs you $1 to call the bet you call it every time right? If you were 100% likely to lose you would fold. But since there is a 5% chance to win you call. The same thing happens in poker to a smaller degree all the time. If the pot has $20 in it and it will cost you $2 to see if you win it you have to be right 10% of the time to breakeven. If you win 20% of the time you show a very nice profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

well and i understand that....to a point. here's where i go /images/graemlins/confused.gif when applying it to this example: we have to pay at the least 2BBs to see if we can win, when i don't see a way to win unless we get a miracle card on the river. you math whizzes can help me out with the % chance of 1 of our 2 outs coming on the river, but the pot size just doesn't seem to justify that small % of times we'll win in this example. that's what i meant, that i don't fully understand when people apply it. river, okay 1 bet. turn in this situation, no percentage seems like it would matter. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[thesharpie]

If there are 22 bets in the pot we'd see the river if we knew we're behind (not necessarily but let's assume). Now there are only 15 bets currently, I'd say at least 16 with implied odds if you do hit. Since we're a 22-1 shot and if there are 22 bets we'd pay 1 bet, when there are 16 bets we'd pay a little less than .8 of a big bet to see the river if we knew we're behind.

Since we don't know we're behind and we're not getting the right price if we think we are, we can't call the turn and fold the river unimproved, we're calling for the chance we're already ahead, and the chance we'll draw out. It is a very slim chance we'll draw out, but it's worth about .75 of a bet, so you're only paying 1.25 to call down unimproved.

This means you have to be ahead less then 10% of the time already to make a profit.

I'm probably way off but I thought I'd share how I think about situations like this.

[chipolino]

MP1 had 22, BB had K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very important concept. You have to understand this to survive. It's str8-up math. You make an educated guess about how often your opponent has you beaten and how often he doesn't. You must be conservative with this estimate but always include the possiblity of a bluff or way overplayed random hand you beat. If the amount you have to pay is a smaller % than the odds the pot is giving you, you make money on the call over the cours of many many times being in that sitaution.

Here's the classic example that should make this clear...
Let's say the pot was a million dollars and you have to make a decision about whether or not to call the bet. If you are likely to lose 95 times out of a 100 but it only costs you $1 to call the bet you call it every time right? If you were 100% likely to lose you would fold. But since there is a 5% chance to win you call. The same thing happens in poker to a smaller degree all the time. If the pot has $20 in it and it will cost you $2 to see if you win it you have to be right 10% of the time to breakeven. If you win 20% of the time you show a very nice profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

well and i understand that....to a point. here's where i go /images/graemlins/confused.gif when applying it to this example: we have to pay at the least 2BBs to see if we can win, when i don't see a way to win unless we get a miracle card on the river. you math whizzes can help me out with the % chance of 1 of our 2 outs coming on the river, but the pot size just doesn't seem to justify that small % of times we'll win in this example. that's what i meant, that i don't fully understand when people apply it. river, okay 1 bet. turn in this situation, no percentage seems like it would matter. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole point is that we might still be ahead. One guy aggro betting back at us does not neccesarily mean we are losing. I think a certain % of the time we are currently ahead ON THE TURN. Players bluff or overplay garbage a certain % of the time. What this % is is certainly debatable but at some point the pot gets big enough that there's value in getting to the showdown. That is the reason for calling. The combined % that you are currently ahead + the chance that you will improve to the best hand vs the size of the pot. That's it. We surely would fold if we knew we were behind but we cannot know that based on the actions of one bettor. Now if another bettor raises then we have more evidence that that A just sunk us but when hero folded it was just too damn soon.